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duc's Commodity Trading Thread

Discussion in 'Commodities' started by ducati916, Nov 21, 2018.

  1. Triple B

    Triple B

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    Yep . I went short wti after it broke below 50 and could not get back above. also gold has ground its way above 1250 today during asian session. seems little selling pressure and I expect COT to show reduced shorts.
     
  2. ducati916

    ducati916

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    I'll have to update the Gold COT.

    All the excitement has been in oil just recently. But yes, Gold seems to be quietly moving higher without any fanfare, probably the best way to do so.

    jog on
    duc
     
  3. ducati916

    ducati916

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    So I joined you in Gold yesterday [last night].

    Screen Shot 2018-12-21 at 6.27.11 AM.png

    Still SHORT oil.

    jog on
    duc
     
  4. ducati916

    ducati916

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    So things have started to move [lower] for the NFLX trade.

    Screen Shot 2018-12-22 at 6.35.48 AM.png

    So currently I'll do nothing. I'm thinking to adjust at $200 if it reaches that level.

    jog on
    duc
     
  5. ducati916

    ducati916

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    So with Christmas around the corner, what to do with my open futures trades. I have traded through Christmas before, but once I got killed in a convergence trade where the 'spread' ballooned. It was Walmart and Target.

    So I have just closed Oil/Gold. While I would like to have kept them both open, too risky for me, especially sitting on fat profits.

    jog on
    duc
     
    barney likes this.
  6. ducati916

    ducati916

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    News,

    OPEC members suffering from low oil prices. With Brent in the mid-$50s, the budgets for OPEC members will come under strain, and perhaps only Kuwait can see its budget breakeven. Low prices could sow unrest in several OPEC member states. “At current prices, too much attention on shale, not enough on OPEC,” Olivier Jakob, managing director at Swiss consultant Petromatrix GmbH, told Bloomberg. Libya and Algeria, for instance, need oil prices above $100 per barrel. Even Saudi Arabia needs oil north of $80 per barrel for its budget to breakeven.

    jog on
    duc
     
  7. ducati916

    ducati916

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    This is the COT chart from the past week [so 2 wks old now].

    What you can see is the tremendous amount of selling from the Commercials. As previously stated, the Commercials buy/sell oil from the Producers.

    With so many of the OPEC producers needing the petro-dollar to support their economies, it would look as if they have sold as much production and forward production into the market to get the best price, given how far, how fast, price has fallen.

    This week's COT numbers will be out soon. It will be interesting to see if this level of panic remains. By all accounts shale oil can be profitable far lower than OPEC oil.


    jog on
    duc

    Screen Shot 2018-12-22 at 3.41.24 PM.png
     
  8. ducati916

    ducati916

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    So this week's COT is at (-109,384) a 5% increase in the short position.

    I will be expecting further weakness in the POO.

    jog on
    duc
     
  9. ducati916

    ducati916

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    You know when you just wish you had held that position!

    Screen Shot 2018-12-25 at 8.15.04 AM.png

    Down to $42 and change. Well the COT did signal the potential decline.

    jog on
    duc
     
  10. ducati916

    ducati916

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    The trick will be trying to get back in short, as this could be heading for thirty something.

    jog on
    duc
     
  11. ducati916

    ducati916

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    Oil trading again, looking for a SHORT entry somewhere around the $43 mark.

    jog on
    duc
     
  12. ducati916

    ducati916

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    SHORT oil at $45.63

    jog on
    duc
     
  13. ducati916

    ducati916

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    Stopped out for a loss.

    jog on
    duc
     
  14. ducati916

    ducati916

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    Try SHORT once more at $46.05

    jog on
    duc
     
  15. ducati916

    ducati916

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    Close and take profit.

    jog on
    duc
     
  16. dutchie

    dutchie

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    Heard of this trick before Duc?

    Australian trader pleads guilty to 'spoofing' in Chicago

    An Australian commodities trader pleaded guilty Wednesday in federal court in Chicago to manipulating market prices by placing orders in the millions of dollars, then canceling them within milliseconds so that he could sell smaller orders at a profit.

    http://www.kcbd.com/2018/12/26/australian-trader-pleads-guilty-spoofing-chicago/
     
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  17. ducati916

    ducati916

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    No not really. Seems a big risk for [him] small rewards.

    jog on
    duc
     
  18. ducati916

    ducati916

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    I'll be looking to exit the mini ES tonight. I'm [hoping] momentum will carry it a little higher. The site [forum] went down this morning for a time.

    Screen Shot 2018-12-28 at 10.36.23 AM.png

    jog on
    duc
     
  19. ducati916

    ducati916

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    All out.

    jog on
    duc
     
  20. ducati916

    ducati916

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    Long Soybeans at $872.25

    I like this trade for a swing trade. But New Year etc. So I'll see how it goes.

    jog on
    duc
     
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