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Whoa! No thread already? I can't believe it. :banghead:

AVA is a junior explorer with a main focus on coal. In WA and in South Africa. Chart-wise, it has been in a symmetric triangle and a breakout may have occurred today. One to watch peoples!!!
 

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Re: AVA - Aviva Corporation

Whoa! No thread already? I can't believe it. :banghead:

AVA is a junior explorer with a main focus on coal. In WA and in South Africa. Chart-wise, it has been in a symmetric triangle and a breakout may have occurred today. One to watch peoples!!!

Hm yeah i noticed but strange, no news at all

It had veru low sell depth today it appears

thx

MS
 
Re: AVA - Aviva Corporation

Hm yeah i noticed but strange, no news at all

It had veru low sell depth today it appears

thx

MS

I suspect it has a lot to do with two factors. To a lesser extent, Coal is one the 'darling' commodities at the moment. You only have to look at Coal in general to see this. Far more importantly, there was the WA explosion which affected major resource players; NCM, BHP, ALumina etc. But AVA's Coolimba power project will have a 400MW base load generator which has potential to supply power to these giants at lower costs. Personally, all up, I think it's potential is hugely undervalued. Time will tell.
 
Re: AVA - Aviva Corporation

I suspect it has a lot to do with two factors. To a lesser extent, Coal is one the 'darling' commodities at the moment. You only have to look at Coal in general to see this. Far more importantly, there was the WA explosion which affected major resource players; NCM, BHP, ALumina etc. But AVA's Coolimba power project will have a 400MW base load generator which has potential to supply power to these giants at lower costs. Personally, all up, I think it's potential is hugely undervalued. Time will tell.

Bejuses - it's Botswanan thermal coal deposit is an inferred resource of 1.3 billion tonne! Here is the link to the last quarterly:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080430/pdf/318vh8k46xxpq6.pdf

In particular, read the bit where they say that Eskom is looking at corporations that can supply it with thermal coal for 40-60 years and AVA have applied. Now this is why CDS has gone nuts. Why not AVA?

Mkt cap is about $100m now. What if they firm up a billion-plus thermal coal deposit?

Also the 400 MW power station they are cranking up in the Mid West.

Real interesting!
 
Re: AVA - Aviva Corporation

Ok CDS continues to fly - mkt cap at 47 cps is $216m. This is based on an inferred 415 Mt thermal coal deposit (with metallurgical coking potential) in the Waterberg region of South Africa. TC to be sold to Eskom, coking coal to be exported.

AVA, at 91 cps, has a current mkt cap $115.5m less $22m cash for an EV of approx $95m. It's Mmamantswe deposit in Botswana has an inferred reserve of 1.3 billion tonne!! That is 3x CDS for half the market cap. It is currently drilling to get this upgraded to JORC indicated and to see if any of the coal can be upgraded to metallugical grade. It is in the south of Botswana, just across the border from the Waterberg region. What can I say - how can this make sense? Eskom has sent out a request for service to supply them with 6-12 Mt pa for 40 years.

AVA also has a 73 Mt coal deposit in WA to supply its proposed Coolimba power station, servicing the Mid West region in WA. This project is well progressed.

So why the lower cap for the bigger deposit c.f CDS? Is it because they will need to do a substantial cap raising to fund the power stations? Would like to know other peoples thoughts on this as maybe I am missing something here.

By the way, Botswana is one of the most stable and affluent country's in southern Africa. It has had a terrible AIDS tragedy but is is well run and potically stable.
 
Re: AVA - Aviva Corporation

Ok CDS continues to fly - mkt cap at 47 cps is $216m. This is based on an inferred 415 Mt thermal coal deposit (with metallurgical coking potential) in the Waterberg region of South Africa. TC to be sold to Eskom, coking coal to be exported.

AVA, at 91 cps, has a current mkt cap $115.5m less $22m cash for an EV of approx $95m. It's Mmamantswe deposit in Botswana has an inferred reserve of 1.3 billion tonne!! That is 3x CDS for half the market cap. It is currently drilling to get this upgraded to JORC indicated and to see if any of the coal can be upgraded to metallugical grade. It is in the south of Botswana, just across the border from the Waterberg region. What can I say - how can this make sense? Eskom has sent out a request for service to supply them with 6-12 Mt pa for 40 years.

AVA also has a 73 Mt coal deposit in WA to supply its proposed Coolimba power station, servicing the Mid West region in WA. This project is well progressed.

So why the lower cap for the bigger deposit c.f CDS? Is it because they will need to do a substantial cap raising to fund the power stations? Would like to know other peoples thoughts on this as maybe I am missing something here.

By the way, Botswana is one of the most stable and affluent country's in southern Africa. It has had a terrible AIDS tragedy but is is well run and potically stable.

Hey Bro, your spot on, to fund the Coolimba project they need about $1billion dollars, with the recent credit climate ....
 
Re: AVA - Aviva Corporation

Hey Bro, your spot on, to fund the Coolimba project they need about $1billion dollars, with the recent credit climate ....

Cheers mate. I think I read though that the WA state government is budgeting to open up the SWIS around Eneabba and is very keen on a diversifying energy supply away from only North West shelf gas. Maybe they would chip in.

$1b will be difficult to raise though.

African deposit is massive though - 1.3b tonne!! I know it is thermal but they stated it has BCI potential.

Ok on the watch list for the moment until there is clearer direction about Coolimba.
 
Re: AVA - Aviva Corporation

Cheers mate. I think I read though that the WA state government is budgeting to open up the SWIS around Eneabba and is very keen on a diversifying energy supply away from only North West shelf gas. Maybe they would chip in.

$1b will be difficult to raise though.

African deposit is massive though - 1.3b tonne!! I know it is thermal but they stated it has BCI potential.

Ok on the watch list for the moment until there is clearer direction about Coolimba.

If you like this is what Wise Owl says...:

viva Corporation Limited (AVA) is a junior mineral exploration company with a primary focus on Coal. It’s most advanced asset is the Central West Coal Project in Western Australia. AVA is also earning a 90% interest in the Mmamantswe Project in Botswana located on the South African border.
Investment Summary

AVA was recommended as a ‘spec buy’ on February 10th, 2008. Members would have made a potential 3.49% loss to date.

Since the last update on the company, AVA has been progressing well with their drilling efforts in Africa while also advancing their ambitions to become an integrated coal and power producer in Western Australia. WA's power requirements have come under the spotlight this week following a well publicised explosion at a gas handling plant operated by Apache energy, causing the state to lose about a third of its energy supplies. Although residents have yet to be affected, the accident is set to be very costly for the state with a number of high profile miners such as Newcrest, BHP, Minara and Alumina all forced to cut back production or seek more costly backup power.

As it could take months before Apache's gas plant is restored and full power is available once more, we see strong opportunities for Aviva to rally support behind its Coolimba power project, targeting the benefits of a more diversified supply base for the state. Coolimba is set to be a 400MW plant with the capability to distribute power throughout the Mid West region of WA. For miners in the region the project should offer a more secure and cheaper power alternative than the diesel fuel currently being used during the current aftermath of the Apache explosion.

With the State Government committing to build a $295million 330kV transmission line between Perth and Geraldton, the Coolimba project is beginning to command more attention, being nicely positioned along the proposed route in between these two cities. A partnership has been established with Arc Energy reduce the project's carbon emissions and a new Chairman, Tony Iannello, has been appointed with strong experience in the WA power industry. The risks continue to be the high capital costs associated with the project's development. Raising the necessary funds may prove a challenge in the current tightened credit environment, which is why we suspect the stock has yet to rally along with other stocks with coal exposure. However the Apache explosion should assist in boosting sentiment towards the project, and with the stock converging in what appears to be a symmetrical triangle, we are on the look out for a potential breakout. Keep holding.




wise-owl Checklist

* New Chairman is positive for the company as Mr Iannello has an in depth knowledge of the power utility industry in Western Australia.
* A healthy cash balance of $22m at the end of the March quarter bodes well for the company however, more funding will be required for the Coolimba project, estimated at the $1b mark.
* A favourable resource upgrade at Mmamantswe coal project together with positive outcomes from the partnership with Arc Energy regarding the Coolimba power plant will be key drivers of the company.
* Institutional Shareholders include Ridgefield Capital Asset Management LP (8.6%), FirstRand Bank Holdings Ltd(8.55%) and Wasabi Energy Limited (8.51%).
* Stock is trading within a symmetrical triangle which has the potential to break to the up or down side.

anagement

Tony Iannello – Newly Appointed Chairman

Mr. Tony Iannello was appointed Chairman, replacing Peter French. Mr. Iannello brings to Aviva considerable experience in the energy and finance sectors. Until April 2006, Mr. Iannello was Managing Director and CEO of Western Power, the state-owned power utility in Western Australia. In this role Mr Iannello oversaw the disaggregation of the utility into separate generation, retail and network entities.





Lindsay Reed - Chief Executive Officer

Lindsay has more than 20 years experience in the resource sector as a mining engineer, resources analyst and business development executive. He worked for RGC Limited for eight years in a range of operational and management roles, before joining Perth stockbroker Porter Western Ltd for four years as a resources analyst. Lindsay joined Murchison United Limited as a corporate development manager and was instrumental in the acquisition of the Renison Bell tin mine from RGC Limited. Mr Reed is also a director of MM Mining plc, soon to be listed on AIM (UK).


Financial Performance

In the most recent quarter, expenditure on exploration totaled $1.27m with operating costs amounting to $2.89m. Until the end of August, the major drilling campaign in Botswana has a budget of $3m. Members should expect greater outflows moving forward as the company ramps up its operations in Africa.

The Coolimba Power Project has been flagged as a $1billion investment, therefore sometime in the future AVA will have to raise more funds. If the company receives the appropriate backing, this should be viewed favourably by the market especially at a time when fresh capital can be hard to come by.

Cash reserves at the end of the quarter are approximately $22m, to be used to further the pre-development programs at Coolimba and Mmamantswe, to pursue new project opportunities and for corporate and administrative expenditure.
Growth Story

The Coolimba project has the potential to become a valuable asset as additional local power capacity is critical to the large number of iron ore developments underway in the Mid West region of WA. The proposed transmission line between Perth and Geraldton is a major win for Aviva. The Coolimba power station should enhance the capacity of the new transmission line to provide much needed extra power to both the local region and the South West Interconnected System network. In other words, the power plant is set to maximise the value of the transmission lines.

Although the project involves 'dirty old coal' Aviva has partnered with Arc Energy (ASX code: ARQ) to study initiatives to curb future emissions from the Coolimba power station. The two companies are set to assess carbon dioxide sequestration techniques into depleted oil and gas reservoirs in the North Perth Basin. This technique captures carbon dioxide emissions and permanently stores the unpopular greenhouse gas underground so that it doesn't get released into the atmosphere, thereby potentially assisting in the battle against global warming. If successful, this project has the opportunity to become Australia’s first and largest commercial “carbon capture” project.

The company has similar integrated coal and power production ambitions in Africa. At the Mmamantswe Coal Project in Botswana, the coal resource has been upgraded from inferred to indicated, and is now undergoing a $3 million reserve upgrade drilling program. Two drill rigs have been mobilised on site for a 16,600 metre drilling program with approximately 150 holes. The main aim is to upgrade 50% of the deposit to ‘measured’ status. The drilling campaign is expected to be completed by the end of August, with final coal quality test results expected by the end of October. AVA will also look to establish a proven reserve for a 40 year power station feed.
 
AVA spec coal company

Here's what Peter Strachan had to say back in January,,,

Aviva is a "speculative buy" ..
Peter Strachan in StockAnalysis dated January 11 says Aviva Corporation, trading at 7c, is trading at a discount to its cash asset backing with the market valuing its 66 Mt of low grade thermal coal and the associated 400 M Coolimba power generation development project near Eneabba at zero. The market is also valuing the company's 90% interest in a 1.3 billion tonne coal project at Mmanantswe and associated power and coal supply projects in Botswana at less than zero.
"StockAnalysis sees underlying value for the company at 88c per shae with upside to over $3 per share" Peter concludes.
AVA up 1c to 9c.

Rags
 
Re: AVA - Aviva Corporation

3469786919_e8fd413dc8_b.jpg


Looking for closing action above 13c or 14c,,,volume building and possibly undervalued.

Rags
 

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Re: AVA - Aviva Corporation

Is anyone watching this one?

Seems to have broken out on an announcement frm the WA governement about the go ahead of the 330kv line from Perth to Geraldton. Most think that this is the green light for their proposed power station at Coolimba, which will be backed by AES.

So I'm guessing the market is waiting for an announcement from Synergy, then it should be all systems go.
 

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Re: AVA - Aviva Corporation

Is anyone watching this one?

Seems to have broken out on an announcement frm the WA governement about the go ahead of the 330kv line from Perth to Geraldton. Most think that this is the green light for their proposed power station at Coolimba, which will be backed by AES.

So I'm guessing the market is waiting for an announcement from Synergy, then it should be all systems go.



um i posted some info on this lil mob a week or so ago in the MGX thread .........lol ......... yeah dont ask me why but i do weird stuff like that at times.... i hold , going for a ride
 
Re: AVA - Aviva Corporation

Nun,

Saw yer post. My, how intuitive you are - good work. What do you reckon, is Coolimba a done deal?

Of course nobody is focusing on the Botswanan project right now, but teh wheels are still turning there is te background I guess.
 
Re: AVA - Aviva Corporation

Nun,

Saw yer post. My, how intuitive you are - good work. What do you reckon, is Coolimba a done deal?

Of course nobody is focusing on the Botswanan project right now, but teh wheels are still turning there is te background I guess.

lol intuitive :D it was on the front page of the geraldton guardian (hard copy only) a day or 2 before i posted that m8 . did not apppear anywhere online until the day of the ann :D gotta love local yokel stuff at times .blessem.

yes re coolimba . too much pressure on up here , is viewed as a make or break for mining/industry in the midwest ......... keep in mind the carbon storage cash giveaway also :D now did hear a rumour on that but its just rumour about there eligibility and wouldnt it be nice for them to score a windfall .....but again thats purely rumour and has not appeard in verifiable media /other sources as yet

re botswana . yeah m8 its still chugging along but the focus for now is this major development/holding to ransom of the WA gov

i hold so take all my posts in the rampant context i post them in

blessem all i say
 
Re: AVA - Aviva Corporation

Cheers for the local insight. Feel free to share any other local parish gossip. Your source wouldn't be passing info from confession now whould they?

I know you nuns have their ways of extracting info from the clergy.
 
Re: AVA - Aviva Corporation

Cheers for the local insight. Feel free to share any other local parish gossip. Your source wouldn't be passing info from confession now whould they?

I know you nuns have their ways of extracting info from the clergy.

LOL nah we good at extracting the cash from the clergy!

re gossip , thats exactly what it is m8 re the carbon storage eligibility and maybe positives . was a conversation with a fellow geraldton drunkard who tries to keep his ear to the ground on all manor of development in the midwest ..... it is NOT solid info , it is not anything that is not known to members of the public in certain areas

my hold is based on the original post i made ........
 
Re: AVA - Aviva Corporation

Very very quiet on all fronts. Anyone have any idea when the Synergy announcement is due?

I'm not nearly patient enough for this game.
 
Re: AVA - Aviva Corporation

There has been abit of action in AVA in the last 3 sessions with about 2.5 Million Shares changing hands due to people taking up there position pre IRP 2010 which is due out by the end of September.

IRP 2010 is the report by the South African Government which is expected to allow Private enterprise to produce power to be sold into the South African grid where demand outstripping supply and without private investment the economy of South Africa will suffer.

Currently all electricity in South African is generated by Eskom a state run entity.

Aviva's Mmamantswe 1000MW power project (1 Billion Tonnes of Coal Inferred) is in close proximity to TSX Listed CIC Energy who is currently a takeover target from an Indian bidder.
More Info in CIC Takeover

I am holding this with a small parcel and will be looking to keep topping up on pullbacks, is anyone else holding this?
 
Re: AVA - Aviva Corporation

is anyone else holding this?

Yes, i got caught with my pants down on a trading halt and a massive gap down.

It happens.

Not a big parcel but an average size position for the speccy it is .

I did add a few more and brought my average down a bit but also treating it as a separate trade parcel and will drop it like a hot potatoe if things go a$$ up again.

But yeah starting to wake slowly by the looks.
 
Re: AVA - Aviva Corporation

That was a fairly good announcement today for the possible sale of a major stake in the WA Power Project with a possible $14 million to be received that would give Aviva a cash backing of close to its current market cap.

This transaction could be a while in the making but its shaping up for an exciting couple of months for Aviva.
 
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