Dow Jones technical analysis

dj_420 · 13 November 2007

I couldn't find a DOW analysis thread so I thought I would start one. At least then there is XAO and DOW analysis threads.

Anyway interesting that on the DOW charts the previous correction was still trending inside the same trading channel and found support right at the bottom of the channel.

Recently the drop has broken through the support on the trading channel. The last level support tested and held at 12,800 ish in the last correction. If the DOW continues to slump will we see this level be tested and hold again?

Also interesting that before the previous correction we had a blow off top and a break of the trading channel right before the market corrected.

CanOz · 13 November 2007

Re: DOW Analysis

Well done DJ, i'm impressed. You've really taken on a TA approach now, good to see. Maybe i've been away for a while?

Cheers,

dj_420 · 14 November 2007

Re: DOW Analysis

CanOz said:
Well done DJ, i'm impressed. You've really taken on a TA approach now, good to see. Maybe i've been away for a while?

Cheers,

Lol, cheers mate

Yeah I have been getting into indices and futures trading, opened up account with CMC Markets, I had done a little bit of stuff before on tech analysis but with uni finished it is time to learn a lot more.

DOW actually now looks to be finding support tonight, could be a signal for longs to re-enter.

bean · 14 November 2007

Re: DOW Analysis

I would also look at Dow Theory
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:dow_theory

May play a bit in understanding. The Transports have broke below the low in August so waiting on Industrials to confirm?

CanOz · 14 November 2007

Re: DOW Analysis

dj_420 said:
Lol, cheers mate

Yeah I have been getting into indices and futures trading, opened up account with CMC Markets, I had done a little bit of stuff before on tech analysis but with uni finished it is time to learn a lot more.

DOW actually now looks to be finding support tonight, could be a signal for longs to re-enter.

Yeah, sure does, i've got one eye on the gold mini, and the other on the US indices....i still think there might be some sellers left in the US yet.

Cheers,

dj_420 · 14 November 2007

Re: DOW Analysis

CanOz said:
Yeah, sure does, i've got one eye on the gold mini, and the other on the US indices....i still think there might be some sellers left in the US yet.

Cheers,

I agree there could be selling left. It does seem that the intraday trends have been reducing in volatility as off today. Could we be reaching a bottom? There has been what seems to be a fairly controlled and constant sell off in the last few weeks, it may be slowing down.

Cheers for that link Bean

nizar · 14 November 2007

Re: DOW Analysis

The bottom is in?

dj_420 · 14 November 2007

Re: DOW Analysis

nizar said:
The bottom is in?

Seems like it, I went long on XJO before bed last night and now its up 80 odd points from entry. I think I may just hold onto this long for a few days, we could see a nice recovery.

Sean K · 14 November 2007

Re: DOW Analysis

nizar said:
The bottom is in?

Looks likely, or at least close. Maybe confirmed going back through 13400...

nizar · 14 November 2007

Re: DOW Analysis

dj_420 said:
Seems like it, I went long on XJO before bed last night and now its up 80 odd points from entry. I think I may just hold onto this long for a few days, we could see a nice recovery.

Your a champion who knows how to clean up.
Keep up the good work

Kauri · 28 November 2007

Re: DOW Analysis

Don't usually bother much with the indicies as I find it too difficult to apply my trading method to them but.... the S+P, apart from lurking around the psycho. level of 1400, looks fib-wise to be potentially interesting...
Maybe Santa Claus is coming to town??
Cheers
.........Kauri

Sean K · 28 November 2007

Re: DOW Analysis

Kauri said:
Don't usually bother much with the indicies as I find it too difficult to apply my trading method to them but.... the S+P, apart from lurking around the psycho. level of 1400, looks fib-wise to be potentially interesting...
Maybe Santa Claus is coming to town??
Cheers
.........Kauri

Another psychological factor for a bounce could be the 10% falls pretty much across all the indicies. While the more bearish will be saying more to come, those not covered in so much fur may consider the 'correction' an opportunity to get back in.

The Mint Man · 28 November 2007

Re: DOW Analysis

I agree Kennas,
I posted the following in the MQG thread yesterday, it might be useful for this thread too;

Yahoo finance
Monday November 26, 6:20 pm ET
By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
The Dow's decline from its mid-October closing high is now 10.03 percent, putting the blue chip index past the 10 percent threshold that signifies a correction........
The Fed said it would inject $8 billion into the banking system on Wednesday. The amount of money is somewhat larger than in past years at this time......
The Fed's decision to inject liquidity into the market isn't unusual for this time of year. Last year, the Fed added a net $21.9 billion into the system from the Monday following Thanksgiving until the first week of January.
Lee Adler, publisher of The Wall Street Examiner, said the overall level of recent liquidity injections is consistent with past years....

click here to read more http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071126/wall_street.html?.v=45

IMO, I find this part to be quite telling - 'The Fed said it would inject $8 billion into the banking system on Wednesday.'
Could this mean that the US markets will gain some confidence, possibly gear up for the Santa rally? This would be 2 days of good news in a row for the US.

Also todays market report looks very good;

Stocks Higher After Citi Secures Capital
Tuesday November 27, 5:29 pm ET
By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer
Wall Street Advances After Abu Dhabi Agrees to $7.5 Billion Investment in Citigroup

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street rebounded Tuesday after the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority said it will invest $7.5 billion in Citigroup Inc. -- a vote of confidence for the nation's largest bank, which has suffered severe losses amid the ongoing crisis in the mortgage market.

here for the whole thing - http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071127/wall_street.html

Cheers

Kauri · 29 November 2007

Re: DOW Analysis

Kauri said:
Don't usually bother much with the indicies as I find it too difficult to apply my trading method to them but.... the S+P, apart from lurking around the psycho. level of 1400, looks fib-wise to be potentially interesting...
Maybe Santa Claus is coming to town??
Cheers
.........Kauri

Santa's Claws spotted on the horizon... although not sure if Rupert is up to the long haul...
Cheers
.........Kauri

Kauri · 30 November 2007

Re: DOW Analysis

What will this do for the markets tonight.. alongside BB's comments..
Cheers
..........kauri

The Bush administration and major financial institutions are close to agreeing on a plan that would temporarily freeze interest rates on certain troubled subprime home loans, according to people familiar with the negotiations (WSJ website).

Kauri · 1 December 2007

Re: DOW Analysis

S+P is interesting... how many times can you surge on the same percieved rate cut..
Cheers
.........Kauri

Kauri · 3 December 2007

Re: DOW Analysis

Is this the turning point.???
Cheep cheep
................Kauri

nikki · 6 December 2007

trend broken

Can someone help me understand this comment and idea from both technical and psychological viewpoint:

The Gartman Letter produces this chart today…pointing out that the Dow is now below the 200 day moving average and the 50 day average is “swiftly converging upon the latter from above”. They say “no matter how one casts the trendline going back to the lows of the summer of ’06, it has been broken”.

There is an attachment that shows the trend line, etc. I follow the DOW Theory closely and have noticed that the utilities index has hit a significant all time high. This comment from the Gartman Letter confuses me??

ithatheekret · 6 December 2007

Re: DOW Analysis

I won't comment on theories , but ......... even after the stellar run we have seen over the last 2 nights , the Dow has not broken any technical levels of resistance . So in my books , it's a cliffhanger . So too the S&P 500 which is even more precipitous , but , the S&P did rocket though its 200 day MA ever so quickly , like in a couple of hours ....... so I labelled it an .. oh yeah ..

Windows must have needed cleaning , or a frock .

ithatheekret · 7 December 2007

Re: DOW Analysis

I've never used the Ichi indicator on indexes before , based most of it's application to forex , but I set one up and noted that the DJIA is below a cloud and if it was a forex chart I'd be short . But given that it is a dominated market indice I'll pause on that one due to the risk ..........

Might have to get into the loft and dig out my old Guppy bibles .

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