CTM - Centaurus Metals

[Sean K]

Scoping Study out this am.

Is a MC of $250m good value for these figures at this stage of development?

 

[matty77]

anyone got any other thoughts on CTM at the moment?

 

[Sean K]

anyone got any other thoughts on CTM at the moment?

Some decent step out and in-fil results. Should grow the MRE from current 562K t of contained metal. @17,700 a tn that's about $10b in the ground making it a Tier 1 asset. Not too many of those around. LRTs most held stock in their resource portfolio. MC under $250m for a $10b resource seems a bit cheap.

 

[Sean K]

Hartley's report with target $1.40 ish. Quite a bit up on current 92c. Hitting a top. Will she break through...

 

[Sean K]

Consolidated a bit and now 90c should be support. The overall story for Ni looks good particularly CTM with Jaguar ESG credentials. Sprott also covering and of course have a buy on them, since they own a chunk of it. All things being equal, expect a bounce from around here.

 

[bk1]

Thats an interesting concept "double premium". I have not seen these forecasts of carbon offset prices before, but i think its inevitable.
Its for those reasons that i stay away from Nickel laterite miners.
Holding

 

[Sean K]

Some good step out results here which will add some tonnage to future MREs. Not sure how big this thing needs to get or what total size is factored into the sp already. They're ramping it as a top 10 Ni deposit in the world so sounds like the right deposit at the right time.

Is that a cup and handle I see? Hope that plays out. Target $1.30.

 

[Sean K]

Interesting to see Karmanis (ex Jubilee) increasing his stake substantially to +5%. Twiggy seems to be interested in Ni at the moment, perhaps he can shift some of his dividends to bump up the MC a bit.

 

[bk1]

Harmanis?
I wondered who he was, didn't realise he was the man behind Jubilee...

 

[Sean K]

Harmanis?
I wondered who he was, didn't realise he was the man behind Jubilee...

Woops, yes, Kerry Harmanis. Not sure if he's doing anything other than investing in other projects at the moment.

 

[barney]

Harmanis?
I wondered who he was, didn't realise he was the man behind Jubilee...

Share held under the Harman Family account so there is more than one of them

Holding a lazy +18 million shares. At todays price that is over $18 million

Not exactly small change.

 

[Sean K]

I think some exploration success around Jaguar is probably expected and factored into the sp. Probably depends on how good that drilling is, but Tiger looks to be what the punters would be hoping for. I don't think this would effect the valuations done above. Yet.

Cup and handle still in play.

 

[Sean K]

Jaguar and nearby is turning into a Tier 1 asset by the looks. I think those valuations above will need to be rejigged going forward. I'm predicting a takeover by a major in the region. Not sure who'd be interested in a large bolt-on Ni deposit in northern Brazil producing 20k+ tn pa? I'm tipping Vale and Oz will be looking very closely at it.

 

[bk1]

They are putting themselves in the shop window, aren't they? The previous announcement talked about the Tigre drilling program, theres a lot of greenfield exploration going on.
I'm tempted to buy more.

 

[Sean K]

They are putting themselves in the shop window, aren't they? The previous announcement talked about the Tigre drilling program, theres a lot of greenfield exploration going on.
I'm tempted to buy more.

Vale could use Jaguar to replace or extend mining at Onca-Puma just 15km down the road. Not sure if it's the same ore/mining type proposed. Hard to find decent info on their mill and operations. Was shut down for a couple of years due to issues with waste effecting locals. That's of slight concern that I'm sure CTM would be wary of. Vale is going full in on their ESG credentials too, so this would fit. I'm sure it's going to be big enough for them especially with Ni at $20K a tn.

They're still working on MRE upgrades before DFS due Q4 next year, so a lot of drilling and extra tonnage to add till then. More upside to come I think if Ni price stays around where it is. Not sure of supply/demand on global Ni at the moment, but the Ni-Cu-Co story for EVs etc growth is pretty strong.

 

[Sean K]

I hadn't noticed Sprott issue a new broker report on 10 Sep. As they're a major holder take this with a grain of salt. However, I do like the upgrade from $1.35 to $1.50 after the Tiger exploration success.

The cup and handle TA target remains $1.30.

 

[Sean K]

Step out drilling at Onca Preta will add more tonnage to future upgrades. Hopefully Tigre turns into something and these guys will be on their way to 100Mt @ 1% Ni for about 1Mt contained Ni. That's ambitious but would be a very good result going to DFS late next year. Long way off yet and patience required, even though they have a bunch of rigs spinning. Shoring up something at Tigre and another green field discovery would be some good news going forward. At quite a discount to price targets of analysts coverage that range from $1.20 to $1.50. Topping up on weakness.

Cup and handle looks like it's failed after the Evergrande sell off. :-(

 

[Sean K]

CTM still going sideways and medium-long term up. Moving back up to all time highs again. Unusual moves today, up 7% ish on no news, maybe some of those holes announced last month are on the way...

I didn't realise they bought Jaguar off Vale, so I guess them taking over CTM is unlikely. Vale to get a royalty type payment going forward. They also have an iron ore project that's not accounted for on their balance sheets but will be looking at a partner to take that over. That could be a surprise. Interview from a couple of weeks ago:

 

[sptrawler]

Step out drilling at Onca Preta will add more tonnage to future upgrades. Hopefully Tigre turns into something and these guys will be on their way to 100Mt @ 1% Ni for about 1Mt contained Ni. That's ambitious but would be a very good result going to DFS late next year. Long way off yet and patience required, even though they have a bunch of rigs spinning. Shoring up something at Tigre and another green field discovery would be some good news going forward. At quite a discount to price targets of analysts coverage that range from $1.20 to $1.50. Topping up on weakness.

Cup and handle looks like it's failed after the Evergrande sell off. :-(


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Hey Kennas do CTM own any processing plant, or are they farming that part out?

 

[Sean K]

Hey Kennas do CTM own any processing plant, or are they farming that part out?

They've done a scoping study on building a mill and producing Ni sulphate. They're a long way from mining. DFS not due till Q4 22. I think once they've firmed up some more tonnage to extend a LOM to 15 years + they'll probably be taken over by a major. I'm slightly concerned about the locals causing trouble. Vale have had to halt their nearby Onca Puma mine a couple of times due to not looking after the environment - read compensation. Not sure where they are on the Lassonde Curve. They're still exploring but also into the feasibility - development phase. They've had some initial success in finding more deposits close by so I'm hoping there's some more upside surprises with discovery on the way to financing. Going to be a slow burn from here I think.