CSL - CSL Limited

Garpal Gumnut said:

Thanks @DrBourse . The tariff threatened is 100% on brands not made in US or where the company does not have a manufacturing facility or plans to build one in the US. I believe CSL has operations in the US. The problem is that investors don't dig in to reasons and factoring in a sector when something happens like Trump putting tariffs occurs which may only affect greatly some constituents of that sector. There is a knee jerk reaction, often sell, and they will wait to see what pans out at a lower price or rarely a higher price.

I guess the advice of what to consider when selling a stock ... "would I buy this stock now" ... will drive most people's intentions. There is another three and and a half years of this disruption at a minimum.

gg

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@Garpal Gumnut ,
Hi GG,
I hope you don't mind, but I would like to add a bit of info to your above wording:-
I guess the advice of what to consider when selling a stock ... "would I buy this stock now" ...

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One of the problems traders continually have trouble with is:-
"To Sell, or not to Sell, &, to Buy, or not to Buy".
IMO (as a general approach), Traders should ask themselves the following Questions..

Lets assume you currently hold a particular stock, then you should, after doing your research, ask yourself the following Questions..
"If I did not own this stock right now, would I buy it", - If the answer is that you would buy, then you should probably hold..
HOWEVER, if the answer is that you would not buy now, then you should probably Sell ASAP..

OR....

Lets assume you currently do Not Hold a particular stock, then you should, after doing your research, ask yourself the following Questions..
"If I did own this stock right now, would I Sell it", - If the answer is that you would Sell, then you should probably Not Buy..
HOWEVER, if the answer is that you would buy now, then you should probably Buy ASAP..

Mind bending stuff - Bit like the 1950's Abbott & Costello performance of "Who's on First"..

DYOR..
DrB.

DrBourse said:

@Garpal Gumnut ,
Hi GG,
I hope you don't mind, but I would like to add a bit of info to your above wording:-
I guess the advice of what to consider when selling a stock ... "would I buy this stock now" ...

====================================================================================

One of the problems traders continually have trouble with is:-
"To Sell, or not to Sell, &, to Buy, or not to Buy".
IMO (as a general approach), Traders should ask themselves the following Questions..

Lets assume you currently hold a particular stock, then you should, after doing your research, ask yourself the following Questions..
"If I did not own this stock right now, would I buy it", - If the answer is that you would buy, then you should probably hold..
HOWEVER, if the answer is that you would not buy now, then you should probably Sell ASAP..

OR....

Lets assume you currently do Not Hold a particular stock, then you should, after doing your research, ask yourself the following Questions..
"If I did own this stock right now, would I Sell it", - If the answer is that you would Sell, then you should probably Not Buy..
HOWEVER, if the answer is that you would buy now, then you should probably Buy ASAP..

Mind bending stuff - Bit like the 1950's Abbott & Costello performance of "Who's on First"..

DYOR..
DrB.

Click to expand...

I certainly don't mind, and it has added significantly to the thought processes around buying and selling I posted. Many articles and books, youtubes and youtube series have been written on this topic but between us I believe we have the "nuts" of the dilemma that is about. When I say "nuts" I mean the essentials, as we could add and refine to what we have both written. It also has to be simple. The issue of holding a falling stock in the expectation of a pause and appreciation is a very common situation and your packaging of that is more than useful.

Whether to buy or not buy, and sell or not sell at a particular time is one of the intellectual stimulants which kept me trading/investing at first when good/bad luck or poor knowledge led to a spiral of initial failure or success in individual stock decision making. The only other aspect I'd like to add is not to be afraid to change one's mind with new information/research available on the stock, sector or market.

I'm a bit time poor presently but if you wanted to start a buy/sell thread I'd read and probably contribute to it. I just didn't want to take the CSL thread off topic as many members may be in the situation of thinking of buying or having to sell CSL and may wish to focus on fundamental or charting issues on the stock. I fortunately sold my CSL before the Trump hoo haw hit. Good trading and investing to you.

gg

DrBourse said:

Mind bending stuff -

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I didn't feel mine bending.
Half the stocks I own I wouldn't buy now, examples: CDA (still own half), DTL, IMD, NST, BC8, WOW, WBC ..

The reasons are diverse:

Maybe the market is frothy, and overvalued stocks are regularly going higher, e.g i recently sold half my CDA @ $21 avg when overvalued and would not have passed your test; it promptly went to $31, now $29. Hypothetically that cost me $70k gross. Similarly with BC8, IMD, RMS - they're all higher than when I took part profits at levels where I would not have bought them if I had held none.

We're not all fanatical frenetic obsessed traders. Some stocks investors probably hold stocks that they wouldn't buy now because:

• They're solid and still be around paying dividends in a decade unless taken over, like WOW or WBC.
• Or maybe they've got to where they're free carried.
• Or maybe they still retain possibilities (like a disappointing explorer or biotech).
• They don't want tge hassle of CGT calculations and expense.

Apposite this sub-forum, probably the second stock that I ever bought two decades ago was 250 shares of CSL in downtrend. As the price got worse and worse. I decided I was wrong and sold at the proverbial bottom. So by your primitive dictum I did the right thing, to wit:
I was holding. If I had asked myself then, "Would I buy CSL now", well obviously I would have answered myself "Fkg No!", because I sold.
Must I lead you by the hand?

"I was holding. If I had asked myself then, "Would I buy CSL now", well obviously I would have answered myself "Fkg No!", because I sold."
but did you sell because you already hold it , had stomached a steep fall and was upset,?
or because new data came to you and suggested it was right to keep when higher priced a month ago but now you realise it is overvalued while yet cheaper?
There is a lot of psychology involved, for all of us, fear and greed.
Look at CSL, CBA recently both are/were absolutely irrational yet the market is not rational.
So some will stick with CBA or CSL even when it starts falling from exhuberant highs, and others will lose by not taking advantage of the irrational high trending.
Plenty of excuses for all
#i can not want to sell , not to pay capital gain is the top one
#brokerage..as if...
# or laziness why bother in a perma bull market,sooner or later
so imho the advantage of system trading to get into overbought entries or at the very least trailing SL to get out without mind play

qldfrog said:

so imho the advantage of system trading to get into overbought entries or at the very least trailing SL to get out without mind play

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All good points , there , Monsieur. However , some traders/ investors could be better off not having a clue about T. A.

I'm probably not the only one here who couldn't system trade even with someone holding a gun to my head .
If there was not that emotional reward and sheer pleasure to be had , from all these years of wealth creation , I probably would have had to " retire " by now and find an effin hobby ! ( and sit idly by as the brain goes to mush )

dyna said:

All good points , there , Monsieur. However , some traders/ investors could be better off not having a clue about T. A.

I'm probably not the only one here who couldn't system trade even with someone holding a gun to my head .
If there was not that emotional reward and sheer pleasure to be had , from all these years of wealth creation , I probably would have had to " retire " by now and find an effin hobby ! ( and sit idly by as the brain goes to mush )

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i see your point, another part of our psyche, even worse when my current system trading is pathetic while my exciting plays are roaring...

qldfrog said:

but did you sell because you already hold it , had stomached a steep fall and was upset?

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Yes, that's the mental state in which I sold but my poorly made point was that if I had listened to some sage of the markets and asked myself at that time "Would I buy this stock?" I claim would have said no even I had been of ice calm demeanour. This would have resulted in a wrong outcome by the rule discussed.

@qldfrog
Actually, you've made me ponder would I have answered "no" to to the question, "Would I buy now?" if I hadn't been holding at a loss that was significant to me (20 yeats ago). If I had had no holding at a loss in CSL and had looked at it totally afresh I guess I might have said "yes".
Not sure where I'm going in this discussion.
The question, Would I buy this stock now?" is implying that I already am holding the stock and dithering as to whether to sell.
What if instead I had been holding CSL at a profit back then? I'm sure I would have again answered, "No, I would not buy now", which would logically have led me to sell = a wrong decision.

finicky said:

@qldfrog
Actually, you've made me ponder would I have answered "no" to to the question, "Would I buy now?" if I hadn't been holding at a loss that was significant to me (20 yeats ago). If I had had no holding at a loss in CSL and had looked at it totally afresh I guess I might have said "yes".
Not sure where I'm going in this discussion.
The question, Would I buy this stock now?" is implying that I already am holding the stock and dithering as to whether to sell.
What if instead I had been holding CSL at a profit back then? I'm sure I would have again answered, "No, I would not buy now", which would logically have led me to sell = a wrong decision.

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Another issue to consider is, that if I sold X now, in what will I invest the money?
Particularly if selling a stock triggers cap gains or other issues, unless you have a compelling need for the cash, perhaps I just sit tight?
mick