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CSL - CSL Limited

Dona Ferentes

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it's all downhill from here... ⤵

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Dona Ferentes

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Brokers reckon there are two key things to look out for when CSL releases its results next Tuesday .

The first is its profit growth and whether it is on course to achieve its guidance in FY 2024. Morgans is expecting a solid first half performance. It said:

FY24 guidance suggests solid 1H. FY24 constant currency guidance calls for NPATA US$2.9-3bn (13-17%) on 9-11% revenue growth, with operating efficiency improving, B/S leverage declining (2x ND/EBITDA) and ROIC "steadily improving" over time.
Elsehwere, the team at Citi is forecasting 17.6% earnings per share growth in FY 2024. So, its analysts will no doubt be looking for similar growth during the first half.

Another metric to keep an eye on is the gross margin of the key CSL Behring business. This arguably has the biggest impact on the company's profitability. So, if this margin shows signs of improvement, it could go down well with the market.

According to a note out of UBS, the consensus estimate for CSL Behring's gross margin is 50.3%. This is slightly ahead of the broker's estimate of 49.8%.

Citi, Morgans, and UBS are all bullish on CSL and currently have the equivalent of buy ratings on its shares.

Citi has a buy rating and $325 price target, Morgans has an add rating and $328.20 price target, and UBS has a buy rating and price target of $350.
 

Dona Ferentes

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CSL received the top-line results from the Phase 3 AEGIS-II trial evaluating the efficacy and safety of CSL112 (apolipoprotein A-[human]) compared to placebo in reducing the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients following an acute myocardial infarction. The study did not meet its primary efficacy endpoint of MACE reduction at 90 days.

As a result, there are no plans for a near-term regulatory filing. There were no major safety or tolerability concerns with CSL112.
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and down 6 per cent
Screenshot_20240212-100419_CommSec.jpg
 
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CSL received the top-line results
from the Phase 3 AEGIS-II trial evaluating the efficacy and safety of CSL112 (apolipoprotein A-[human]) compared to placebo in reducing the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients following an acute myocardial infarction (AMI).
The study did not meet its primary efficacy endpoint of MACE reduction at 90 days.

As a result,there are no plans for a near-term regulatory filing. There were no major safety or tolerability concerns with CSL112.
So that should see csr fall a bit .maybe...
As with resmed, I see csl as a USD/AUD play as well so tricky..
 

Dona Ferentes

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And just as I was poised to lighten the load a little bit when breaking $305.
gotta luv the market
Hopefully the results to be released make up for this setback.
Head of research and development Bill Mezzanotte said in November that CSL112 was one of three potential blockbuster drugs in its development pipeline.
 
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The issue with research is 95% or more of it results in a dead-end and they have to do the research in order to prove it is a dead-end. However, it is always possible some elements of that research may be useful in other research projects.
 
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The issue with research is 95% or more of it results in a dead-end and they have to do the research in order to prove it is a dead-end. However, it is always possible some elements of that research may be useful in other research projects.

The government also provides a significant tax incentive to conduct R&D on Australian shores/balance sheets

 
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CSL tumbles as key heart attack drug fails trial, why the market is so disappointed​



i do not hold this share

and am not so disappointed the big slide rippled onto AUI ( CSL was the top holding ) causing me to get a satisfactory entry point ( for AUI )

i suppose i should have doubled down and looked for a bashed ETF as well
 

Dona Ferentes

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FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
• Revenue $8.05 billion, up 11% at CC
• NPAT $1.90 billion, up 17%
• NPAT $1.94 billion at CC, up 20%
• NPATA $2.02 billion , up 11%
• NPATA $2.06 billion at CC, up 13%
• NPATA earnings per share $4.182, up 11%
• NPATA earnings per share $4.26 at CC up 13%
• Interim dividend of US$1.19 per share
o Converted to Australian currency, the interim dividend is approximately A$1.81 per share, up 12%
• Guidance reaffirmed – FY24 NPATA anticipated to be in the range of approximately $2.9 billion to $3.0 billion at CC

... things are looking UP
 
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yes

nice work to those who bravely bought the dip yesterday

will be interesting to see if any members admit to trading CSL over the next week or two ( say bought yesterday and exit around $320 )
 
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My thinking is anywhere near $320 I'll lighten the load.
i note CSL is currently in the red , which is a surprise to me

the numbers didn't look bad at all ( even if you inflation adjust )

and the unsuccessful drug trial happened early enough to allow a diversion of capital if that is what management deem prudent

but yes a shareholder with a high entry-point would be tempted
 
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