Crude Oil update

[qldfrog]

And this is a biggy:
In my 2c view:
(Once people remove their TDS cap,)
Trump policy to get the USA out of bankruptcy is in broad key points:

#Tariffs and illegal immigration stopped to fully control exchanges and lock the US in a self sufficiency mode, the MAGA
#Let inflation run smashing the debt but done now with full employment and economic activity so that America as a whole is not too badly affected.
# USD and bond holders screwed but who cares as debt is smashed...
Much more complex than that but roughly
Now, if the US stops being a biggest oil producer it is, thanks to shale oil, and becomes dependent again on middle east oil, this is getting difficult to manage with a worthless dollar and no military power protection to offer in exchange.
Saudis will not go back to petro dollar,even if Trump tried to resurrect it last week.
Not again and probably ever.
That stealing of Russian assets and Ukraine push by the democrats was a world defining mistake that will cost the US terribly and probably their world power position
So where to: lower POO destroys the US shale industry and recreated the deadly dependencies, only so much the dig dig dig and uranium/coal push can do.
A bit of a headache now..
Venezuela, within the remaining regional US power, could become the saviour but just my thoughts, will keep an eye on it.
Plenty of oil there and around
Note
And now just consider how fxcked the EU is now, having acted like a retard , stealing the Russian assets,blowing up literally its cheap energy supply to import lng from..the US and now destined to become the tired economic cheap whore to the middle east princes .
Absolutely pathetic.

 

[finicky]

Macro Monday excerpt from Market Matters

Macro Monday: Markets brace for renewed tariff ructions - Market Matters

Macro Monday: Markets brace for renewed tariff ructions Market Matters - ASX buy recommendations

marketmatters.com.au

Crude Oil ($US/barrel)

"The outlook for crude demand is set to deteriorate as the US ramps up its chaotic tariff strategy, and traders are voting with both feet, cutting their bullish bets on oil. Oil investors had largely overlooked trade news over recent weeks as the conflict in the Middle East commanded price action, but Trump’s latest barrage of tariff letters, containing some of the highest tax rates yet, is reviving concerns that a global trade war will reduce crude consumption. The prospect of waning demand is dealing another blow to a market already suffering from widespread expectations of a glut later this year. In addition to the trade war, a subdued economic outlook for top crude importer China is fueling concerns that the market will struggle to absorb extra supply in the year’s second half.

The CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) Report is a weekly snapshot of futures market positions, released every Friday. It shows how different groups—like hedge funds, commercial hedgers, and small traders—are positioned (long or short).



Crude oil has already received a deluge of news in 2025, yet it’s only mildly lower year-to-date. As we head into the second half of 2025, it’s easy to make both a bullish and bearish case for the energy complex, leaving the next meaningful 5-10% swing a coin toss to MM.

We can see Brent Crude rotating around current levels for a while as it awaits fresh economic and geopolitical news.
OOO
MM is now neutral towards Brent Crude in the $US65-70 band"

 

[Smurf1976]

As we head into the second half of 2025, it’s easy to make both a bullish and bearish case for the energy complex

FWIW, US Oil rig count as of 18 July was 422.

For previous weeks as follows.

11 July = 424
3 July = 425
27 June = 432
20 June = 438
13 June = 439
6 June = 442
30 May = 461
23 May = 465
16 May = 473
9 May = 474
2 May = 479
25 April = 483
Prior to that, had been stable around 480 since mid-2024.

So it's coming down recently, the trend's pretty clear there.

There's a 5 year chart here: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_o...t=Basic Info,functioning in the United States.