And good luck with that. Let's hope that you can keep your personal bias out of that thread.
No, i'm not getting nasty at all, but i don't appreciate you assuming that i'm living an insulated expat life oblivious to all that goes on around me. which is what you were assuming.
Now, if you'll excuse me i need to go start a thread and abuse the Russian government about how they hunt down and execute oligarchs.....They really piss me off
And good luck with that. Let's hope that you can keep your personal bias out of that thread.
Where's Sinosteel???? As if.
It's the same company China inc.
Sometimes China inc makes low ball offers to keep the price up so they put off genuine alternatives, take board positions and then make deals to suit themselves. They also figure no one else will come along with the price up and costs to come, they can increase their holding keep the price up, suck in the share holders with capital raising, having inflated the price so then China inc doesn't have to do the real funding and their happy and off they go with the goodies from the ground to make money out of what they make it into.
Sundance needs plenty of help to get this happening and the Chinese seem to be the only willing partners at this point. Board is right to fight the pricks off but that can be hard when they need them as partners.
Is that reason not to be happy?
Expect to see many confused messages coming out.
Their good at offering underhanded payouts to board members too, one way or another. If the member ever do something they don't like well - Remember a guy called Stern Hu???
How did they manage to take all Rios computers as part of their investigation!!
HHmmmm corporate espionage right out in the open. Wheres Rupert? News was quiet on all that given what it was.
We should have been protesting in the streets.
Wonder whats on the table for Stern today?
They pay they own you.
Maybe you guys should look at RCI to see how Chinese take overs go. When an Indian company was bidding for RCI the Chinese came in and made dummy bids to knock up the Indian one to about .515c which depended on due diligence. The Indians then walked away after due diligence and the the Chinese went dead silent. RCI fell down to .125c!! when the Indians walked away and whilst it was doing that a Chinese director - Wu Pun Yun increased his holding massively to 50.4%holding.
The Chinese came back after 6 months and made a hostile bid at 25c! They had to raise it to 30c because 25 was against the law!!! to come back so low so soon or something like that. They are now lapping up stocks at that level at present of 30c. RCI has asked it's share holders who hardly exist any more to reject it.
What will happen to Sundance? Don't know because nothing happens the way you think it will on the market. But, my guess is that, in the absence of a bid from a non Chinese inc company which is highly unlikely, gradual decline amidst sneaky, Chinese accumulation. Then in 6 months it might be worth taking a bite but the Chinese may be able to control through board arm bending and live monkey brain eating parties. So will not bother to do anything more.
An alternate bidder will have to have very deep pockets after paying 1.5Billion and needing another 3 (+Blowout) Billion for development. Hanlons 18% holding will also be obstructive. To be fair to shareholders who are prepared to wait, SDL should take it's time and not rush into anything.
India and other developing nations need iron oar too and demand isn't going away soon. Combined financing would be more valuable to share holders over the longer term rather than being subject totally to merciless Chinese.
Xtrata would be an ideal alternate buyer for SDL. Did Xtrata announce they were not interested?
You could also look at BMN to get an idea of how Chinese raids go. BMN has a highly conditional offer of 61.5c on it and its trading today at.35c! The will Chinese examine every inch of the company with as much intimidation as possible which will likely go on for months according to the recent board announcement.
Who knows they may offer 25c after that. I have being buying that recently however so I must think it will happen.
China loves nuclear things!
China is more likely to intemperate this in the light of -the way it behaves - which is to play dirty and do anything without conscience.
So China will think Australia is trying to some how interfere with the negotiations with sovereign motivations. It will make them all the more keen to win these assets.
So I think the last thing I'm expecting them to do is walk away in protest.
Should SDL trade at significant discounts when they re open as BMN have I reckon it will be a good opportunity.
Although I also think that getting a higher price as the board is trying to do maybe difficult. China could walk away to try to make SDL crash then come in with more buying when it's in the can. That's the more likely danger. BMN on the other hand is something I feel they will try to take and is more fairly valued by the current bid.
I have been buying more BMN this morning.
I knew i sensed that Notting had some kind of strange vendetta against the Chinese....this is where it started....Notting, did you lose some money on Sundance?
The rest is just being a decent human being able to look at oneself and say, well at least I didn't cast down my eyes and say nothing!
That's where I'm coming from.
Sorry if it's boring. I have found it useful to trade on so there is relevance for others there too if that's all they care about.
Notting you still take part in their economy though don't you?
I added my personal bias to balance Nottings view. Add your view for balance if you like, if not then run along.
China is not all bad, mostly...but not all.
Lots of stories about the past, its improving for the majority, slowly.
Thats my view.
China October Industrial Output Growth Tops Estimates at 10.3%
By Bloomberg News | November 09, 2013
China’s industrial output rose 10.3 percent in October from a year earlier and retail sales gained 13.3 percent, the National Bureau of Statistics said on its website today.
Fixed-asset investment excluding rural households in the first 10 months of the year increased 20.1 percent, the Beijing-based agency said.
The advance in industrial production compared with the 10 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 44 economists and a 10.2 percent increase in September. Retail sales (CNRSCYOY) compared with the median projection for a 13.4 percent advance and a 13.3 percent increase the previous month.
China is the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, so small decreases in its emissions seem like monumental feats when compared to other countries. According to a new analysis, in the first four months of 2015, China’s coal use fell almost 8 percent compared to the same period last year ”” a reduction in emissions that’s approximately equal to the total carbon dioxide emissions of the U.K. over the same period.
The analysis, published by Greenpeace and Energydesk China, reviewed data from a number of sources, including China’s industrial output, and found that China had reduced its coal output by 6.1 percent in the first four months of 2015. The research team calculated that the drop in coal use translates into a nearly 5 percent drop in domestic CO2 emissions.
In 2014, China cut domestic consumption of coal by 2.9 percent, the first drop in more than a decade, with coal production also falling 2.5 percent. China’s carbon emissions also fell last year for the first time in over a decade, dropping 2 percent in 2014 compared to 2013.
While China is rapidly pursuing clean energy technology ”” with solar growth that dwarfs any other country ”” and also closing hundreds of coal plants in response to domestic air pollution issues and a shifting fossil fuel landscape, the real reason for the dramatic fall in emissions is likely the country’s sluggish economy. So far in 2015, China’s economy is growing slower than the government’s desired 7 percent pace ”” a trajectory that puts it on course to have its weakest economic year in a quarter of a century.
But while China’s economic growth may turn around, its coal use will not. Late last year the government announced it plans to cap coal use by 2020, a necessary target to meet its global pledge of peaking greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. Reducing its use of coal, which still generates three-fourths of China’s electricity, is also a key element of China’s renewable energy target of 20 percent non-fossil fuels in “primary energy consumption by 2030.”
As the Wall Street Journal reports, all these factors are coming together in the country’s upcoming overhaul of its power industry, which will be “bad news for coal-fired plants.”
I don't have a horse in the race either way (yet), except for through whichever underlying stocks in various indices I hold which may have China exposure.
One valuation metric which is useful for applying across countries is the "Total Market Cap / GNP" ratio, which I couldn't get a hold of, but the World Bank has historical data for TMC/GDP, which is a close enough proxy I guess (they released the 2012 datapoint EOFY, a bonus for us). A quick chart:
View attachment 53191
A shorthand forecast using the 2012 TMC/GDP number assuming 2%/annum growth in EPS and 2% dividend yield:
1.02 * (0.65/0.449)^(1/10) - 1 + 0.02
(as per http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130318.htm)
returns a (crude but effective) forecast 10Y nominal total return of 7.8%/annum, which isn't backup the truck zone (considering the potential for volatility), but certainly priced significantly cheaper than a lot of other country indices. A similar but more generous forecast for the US (6% EPS growth and 2% yield, but TMC/GDP is much much higher) only returns a forecast return of 3-4%/annum.
So is China in a stock bubble? Or was the spike higher simply bringing it in line with valuations for indices across the world, from a very very cheap starting point?
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