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China's Economy

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MrBurns

Joined
6 September 2008
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Anyone else see a trend here ?

China is consuming resources in record volumes.
What are they doing ?

The USA seems to be faltering.

Could the balance of power be shifting ?,

I for one hope not because , no offense intended, I just don't trust them.
 
China is consuming resources in record volumes.
What are they doing ?
Click to expand...

They are stockping with US dollars in order to hedge against US$ devaluation

The USA seems to be faltering.
Click to expand...

Many of us have been pointing out this obvious fact for more than two years


Could the balance of power be shifting ?,
Click to expand...

Yes, noticed a recent press release that USA, Aus and China will be doing some joint military exercises in the Pacific.

Your last comment I will ignore, I have a number of fine chinese friends, nephew dates one, a PHd medical student at Monash (I am caucasion by the way)

We must encourage educational, military, business and govt intereaction or we will eventually be dammned

IMVHO
 

I didn't mean as a people I meant as a Govt.
I like Asian people very much.

Oh and thanks for the clarification on those few points.
 
Another query which pops to mind is how important is China to Rio and BHP ? If China played hardball or stopped ordering for some reason what impact would that have on their share prices ?
 
MrBurns said:
Another query which pops to mind is how important is China to Rio and BHP ? If China played hardball or stopped ordering for some reason what impact would that have on their share prices ?
Click to expand...

A point I missed was by stockpiling the reserves it will allow them to hold out against high prices and buy on the dips so to speak. This must have negatives for the big miners all right. Another reason why they would be increasing shareholder positions as well. And not just to Aus, Sth Africa, Sth America, Russia for energy and others.

My Farther used to speak of China over 50 years ago that they would one day be a very big problem. A line he used to quote also "if you marched then 10 abreast into the sea at walking pace the population still would not drop. I think that may have changed but the sheer size of what we are dealing with makes us look like an ant under the elephants foot.
 
explod said:
but the sheer size of what we are dealing with makes us look like an ant under the elephants foot.
Click to expand...

Thats what concerns me.
Good insight once again, thanks

Just noticed my post count, I really have to get a life.
 

Wasn`t a nice world last time a country tried to take control.
 
explod said:
...

Your last comment I will ignore, I have a number of fine chinese friends, nephew dates one, a PHd medical student at Monash (I am caucasion by the way)

...

IMVHO
Click to expand...


Might be a PHd medical student at Monash , question is what will do when regime tells what to do.

There are not that many Chinese dissidents in China.
 
The day China and India become dangerous is when they become self sustaining. Until then they will always need outside resources to industrialize its nation.
 
Anyone actually been to China. I have.

If it had a good water supply and spoke english (well most do already), then i wouldn't mind living there.
 
Ageo said:
The day China and India become dangerous is when they become self sustaining. Until then they will always need outside resources to industrialize its nation.
Click to expand...

Not possible... they dont have any coal, oil, natural gas, iron ore, uranium.....

Unless they develop ultra efficient solar tech.. that is probably the only free resource they could use.
 
jono1887 said:
Not possible... they dont have any coal, oil, natural gas, iron ore, uranium.....

Unless they develop ultra efficient solar tech.. that is probably the only free resource they could use.
Click to expand...
China is a major coal producer at present and also has one of the world's more significant oil fields (though it has peaked by most reports). Also some gas and signficant hydro resources.

So it's not exactly a country brimming with energy resources relative to potential consumption but they aren't like, say, Japan or France (and increasingly the UK) with near total dependence on imports.
 
Could the balance of power be shifting ?
Click to expand...

Many have said it's been shifting for quite a while. Really, it was there to see once China started its economic revolution a few decades ago.

The day China and India become dangerous is when they become self sustaining.
Click to expand...

I imagine their populations are far too large to become self-sufficient anytime soon. More so for India. The miners don't even seem to care to predict when the party will stop.

Wasn`t a nice world last time a country tried to take control.
Click to expand...

Why, what happened to the US? I wouldn't worry about physical force, why bother with that when you can just buy everyone up?
 
Saw this on the ABC last night, I don't think China is in much trouble and it appears they will need our minerals for a long time to come -

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Personally I have more faith in American economics than I do in the Chinese castrated version they apply.

The gross misallocation of resources in China is going to cause massive damage to their economy. The shadow banking system is already at 40% of GDP and shaky. The large Govt owned banks have bad debts that are massive by western standards.

The fact that access to resources is determined by who you know rather than generating the highest profit is going to cruel their industry.

China is similar to Japan just a few years before the Japanese credit bubble burst. Every time the Chinese Govt tries to rebalance the economy towards domestic consumption growth falls so fast they get scared and start spending up big on asset construction. They have the lowest consumption of any major economy in history.

They keep kicking the can down the road, and the problem is all the "wealth" they've stored overseas is practically useless to them because as soon as they start to use it they will cause a jump in their currency and crystallise all the losses they've accumulated over the decades by selling their currency on the cheap.

My fear is what it will do the the 1 trick pony Australian economy when the Chinese crash shockwave hits our shores.

As for Chinese political power, well I think they've overstepped in recent years and a lot of Asia has started to turn back to the US to help be the military counterweight. You only have to look at their aggression over the Senkaku / Diaoyu islands and the way they have used their economic and military clout against the Japanese and Philippines. The rest of the world got a huge wakeup call when they severely restricted the export of rare earths.

For all of America's faults, they have generally pushed the world in the right direction. So far I don't think anyone would say the Chinese Govt is doing the same.
 
Dowdy said:
Anyone actually been to China. I have.

If it had a good water supply and spoke english (well most do already), then i wouldn't mind living there.
Click to expand...

You have got to be kidding. I was there just before the Olympics and found the majority of people in Beijing and to a lesser extent Shanghai, to have little to no western sensibilities. The guttural spitting, the inability to queue, the shouting. Then there's the pollution. My eyes were sore and red for the 10 days I was in the country.

It's prob only the second time I've been on holiday and been glad to get on the plane and out of a country.
 
sydboy007 said:
You have got to be kidding. I was there just before the Olympics and found the majority of people in Beijing and to a lesser extent Shanghai, to have little to no western sensibilities.
Click to expand...
Perhaps they regard some western 'sensibilities' as distasteful also.
Let's allow different cultures to value what matters to them without wanting to impose our values on them.
 
Oh dear.....

President Li: China can post 7-8% GDP growth rate over 5-10 years; Do not see a systemic property bubble- China banks have lots of opportunities for growth. - Source TradeTheNews.com
Click to expand...

I didn't think so either, four years ago....then they ramped it up.

There is very little liquidity in the housing market in most places outside the major cities where lots of empty apartments, although sold, could never be re-sold. At some stage, people will start selling, there will be no buyers and the prices will really start to fall.

And yet the building continues, i can see a dozen cranes from my kitchen window.

This must be the biggest bubble in history.

CanOz
 

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