C79 - Chrysos Corporation

[Dona Ferentes]

Its an interesting one, @Dona Ferentes, on face value the 4C looks terrible, continuation of revenue growth with no sign of any of it flowing to the bottom line. When you look thru the numbers though, the problems are the high staff costs and massive capex spend. So there may be a point where it does start to scale, just depends how and when the capex spend drops and whether the staff costs are relatively fixed as revenue scales up.

You question is exactly right IMO, whether or not they can start "making it back", will be the indicator of whether or not its an investible business. Stays on the watch list for now!

It would be an intensive and costly set of operations to install and optimise operations, on locations throughout the world.

Just watching

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Just watching

sub $5

For six months ended 31 Dec 2024 (1H FY25)
Highlights
▪ Total Revenue of $29.1m, +54% growth Year-on-Year (1H FY24: $18.9m)
▪ EBITDA of $5.7m; +150% growth on 1H FY24 $2.3m
▪ EBITDA margin of 20%, increasing YoY from 12% in 1H FY24
▪ Six new lease agreements signed, bringing the total number of contracted units to 56
▪ Continuing adoption of PhotonAssayTM at the Barrick-Newmont NGM operation in Nevada, giving Chrysos exposure to the world’s two largest gold miners
▪ Total of $121.9m available for growth, including $26.9m in cash and $95.0m undrawn debt facility with CBA as at 31 December 20242

FY25 Guidance
▪ Revenue is tracking at the lower end of the $60m to $70m guidance range
▪ EBITDA is tracking below the midpoint of the $9m to $19m guidance range

 

[galumay]

Yeah, not a good look, such a tell when all your messaging is about bull**** Earnings (EBITDA), sure enough if you go to the only place they mention actual earnings, the financial statements, they made a loss again!

I was following this but the deliberate hiding of real results is too much of a red flag for me, off the watchlist!

 

[Dona Ferentes]

sub $5

FY25 Guidance
▪ Revenue is tracking at the lower end of the $60m to $70m guidance range
▪ EBITDA is tracking below the midpoint of the $9m to $19m guidance range

bouncing around $4.01

New (?) Guidance
The Company is on track to achieve its FY25 Guidance, with no change from our last update:
• Revenue is tracking at the lower end of the $60m to $70m guidance range
• EBITDA is tracking below the midpoint of the $9m to $19m guidance range

 

[Dona Ferentes]

bouncing around $4.01

.

.
Chrysos has entered into a Master Services Agreement with Newmont Corporation for Newmont to use Chrysos’ PhotonAssayTM technology for its gold mining projects. Newmont and Chrysos also entered into a contract for an initial PhotonAssayTM unit to be installed at its Ahafo mine in Ghana, with deployment expected in 1H FY26. The MSA with Newmont adheres to Chrysos’ general terms of an optional renewable five-year term, a fee per sample, and a minimum monthly assay payment.

 

[finicky]

From Market Matters:
"Chrysos Corp (C79) +17.92% rose after signing a deal to provide mineral analysis tools to gold mining giant Newmont (NEM US)."

From ASF original post here:

Chrysos Corporation Limited is an Australian based provider of novel assay services to the global mining industry through its proprietary Chrysos PhotonAssay™ technology. Assaying involves the analysis of material such as ore to determine the presence, absence or quantity of various elements. While PhotonAssay can be used to detect a wide range of elements, the technology has proven particularly effective for gold and is currently being rolled-out across the gold mining industry. Assaying is a non-discretionary operating cost in the mining industry and has a wide array of applications across all stages of the value chain, from early-stage exploration drilling to later-stage production activities.

Chrysos PhotonAssay units are deployed to mine sites and independent laboratories which provide assay services.
Chrysos is headquartered in Adelaide, with operations spanning Perth, Canada and Tanzania.

Not Held
Hmmm

 

[Dona Ferentes]

From Market Matters:
"Chrysos Corp (C79) +17.92% rose after signing a deal to provide mineral analysis tools to gold mining giant Newmont (NEM US)."

From ASF original post here:


Not Held
Hmmm

sorry I didn't use bold ... you may not have noticed earlier posts.

 

[finicky]

From Market Matters

Market Matters | Leading Australian Stock Market Views And Advice

Get the latest Australian stock market views from top investors with real money in the markets. ASX investment advice and share recommendations. Find out more.

marketmatters.com.au

Answer to a subcriber question about C79

Not Held
I'd forgotten about this one.

"Hi Mark,
We have in the past held both Chrysos Corp Ltd (C79) and Austin Engineering Ltd (ANG), but we don’t at present.

Chrysos Corporation (C79), is an Adelaide-based mining technology business, with a cutting-edge gold assay technology. As you rightly point out, the company has entered into a significant partnership with Newmont, the world’s largest gold producer, which is a major step forward. The key now is about getting more units on sites around the globe. They have previously missed their forecasts around deployment, and we lost some confidence in their ability to deliver on guidance. That said, they have a great product, that saves companies time and money, they are growing their customer list, and more units are being deployed. We like the stock, but we just need to see several periods where they meet targets to get confident enough to buy it again.
We like the implications of this deal with C79 looking interesting back around $4.55, well below where we exited last October "

WEEKLY

 

[galumay]

Its not even profitable, another case of what appears to be a good product, but a crappy business. Its an easy trap to fall into as an investor, forgetting that we are buying businesses, not the products. Too many buy positions because they love the product but spend no time on understanding the financial fundamentals and unit economics.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

$5.51

▪ Total Unaudited Revenue of $66.1m; +46% growth on FY24 ($45.4m)
▪ Unaudited EBITDA of $16.1m; +80% growth on FY24 ($9.0m)
▪ 11 PhotonAssayTM units deployed in FY25 totalling 40 units deployed
▪ Nine new leases signed in FY25, bringing total contracted PhotonAssay™ units to 59, including a Master Services Agreement and initial lease with the world’s leading gold miner, Newmont.
▪ Subsequent to year-end, Chrysos has executed four additional agreements,
▪ Well-positioned for sustained global growth, with $91.1 million available between cash on hand and undrawn capacity from Chrysos’ debt facility with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia at 30 June 2025

 

[galumay]

I suspect its made a loss again, the fact that the trading update only mentions bull**** earnings is a tell as well as a red flag.
They also only talk to OCF, which makes me suspect there is no FCF again.

The H1 results suggested its simply not scaling, as they add revenue the losses increase.

 

[finicky]

Gap up, record daily volume, closing on its high.
Looking promising with Barrick adopting C79 assaying tech globally.

Not Held

Excerpt from a Market Matters article this morning:
"Having gone public in May of 2022, it’s been a rocky road in parts, with deployment and therefore revenue from units failing to live up to expectations. However, yesterday’s result confirmed that contracting momentum has improved with +11 units added in FY25 and a further +4 post-period end, including a partnership with Bureau Veritas (a top 4 lab company) and a second unit for Newmont. Barrick (B US), a company we own in our International Equities Portfolio, has adopted PhotonAssay globally, with potential installation of up to 13 units across four continents by the end of 2025.

FY25 revenue of $66.1m grew +46% YoY while they delivered earnings (Ebitda) of $16.1m relative to guidance of $9-19m range. C79 closed FY25 with net cash of ~$4m, representing cash of $21.7m less drawn debt of $17.6m. Total liquidity stands at $99.1m, including $77m undrawn and remaining from a $95m CBA debt facility."

DAILY