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BSL - Bluescope Steel

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...per previous poster "The exception is buy backs by company directors and other officials. That is bad. It is a kind of way to sell their holdings without being spotted selling their stock, very sneaky."



i cannot think of a method where ownership transfers occur (direct or beneficial) and dirs are not bound by disclosure rules for asx listings for dir holdings.....
 

tinhat

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The chart below is part of a research project and should not be considered a recommendation to buy this stock. If you want to read more about the project log in to read the P2 Weekly Portfolio thread.

Setup: Reversal coming off support, BO-NH Grade A
Buy limit: 12.60, iSL 11.00, initial target 18.50

BSL200119.PNG
 
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BSL H&S pattern. Yes I agree, but BSL is lagging the market. There was a H&S pattern on the XAO and that triggered weeks ago and is almost at it's target.

BSL is held back by the rising USD and steel tariff discussions between US and China. These need to be resolved before BSL can boom.
 

tinhat

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BSL is held back by the rising USD and steel tariff discussions between US and China. These need to be resolved before BSL can boom.
In terms of the strength of the business I don't see why. 40% of revenues are generated in the USA and a further 40% are generated in Oz. I can understand disruption of markets, resultant volatility and the outlook for global growth might be headwinds, but other than the global macro implications I don't understand why the current tariff policy of the USA is specifically bad for BSL. In terms of market sentiment, well that is another matter.

I bought some more today. It will be interesting to see the interim results which are not expected out until the end of Feb. At the end of November they gave guidance confirming their 1H19 earnings forecast so of course any miss will not go unpunished by the market.
 

tinhat

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I love it when I am wrong and the market is right! Lucky I stopped for lunch a bit earlier today. I noticed BSL was $11.80 so bought some more.
 

bigdog

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upload_2019-2-25_10-11-6.png

Motley Reported
https://www.fool.com.au/2019/02/25/...ngs-record-and-flags-aggressive-us-expansion/

BluseScope breaks earnings record and flags aggressive US expansion
Brendon Lau | February 25, 2019

Steel products maker BlueScope Steel Limited (ASX: BSL) posted record first half underlying earnings this morning that was ahead of guidance and is promising more growth at its full year.

Shareholders will be hoping that the news will support the sagging BSL share price, which has collapsed 30% since the last reporting season when the S&P/ASX 200 (Index:^AXJO) (ASX:XJO) index has only dipped 2%.

But it’s not only the all-time high earnings and outlook that will capture attention. News that two key risk factors that have weighed heavily on the stock weren’t enough to derail growth will also be warmly welcomed.

What’s eating the BlueScope share price?
The first is the housing construction slowdown in the US and Australia. The second is the US steel spreads, which is the profit margin of steel mills.

The home building indices in the US and Australia have softened significantly over the past six months and a rebound is looking elusive.

Meanwhile, the abnormally high profit margins from US steel makers since US President Donald Trump slapped tariffs on steel imports into the country are easing back.

There’s little doubt these issues have taken a bite out of BlueScope’s earnings but their impact may not be as big as sceptics have feared.

Record earnings and outlook
Management posted a 62% surge in underlying earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) over the same period last year to $325.4 million – it’s best half year performance ever.

The 1HFY19 figure is 14% above what the company posted in 2HFY18. That’s significant because management was guiding for a 10% increase.

What’s more, it’s US business North Star and its Australian Steel division posted strong growth. Its steel products may have some exposure to housing construction, but it’s predominantly used in infrastructure, industrial and commercial construction projects.

The two divisions that posted a loss, Building Products Asia and North America and Buildings North America, make up a relatively small proportion of group EBIT (under 12%).

Management is fixing these issues and is expecting to lift EBIT for Building Products Asia and North America by $40 million in FY20 (enough to return it to growth) and noted that sales of buildings (in the Buildings North America division) to industrial, healthcare, manufacturing, warehousing, aviation and energy customers remain strong.

Foolish takeaway
However, investors may be disappointed that BlueScope isn’t lifting its interim dividend, which is flat at 6 cents per share.

Management also warned that the current half will be weaker than the first half, which is probably due to weakening steel spreads.

Nonetheless, BlueScope is tipping that full year FY19 underlying EBIT will increase by 10% over last year and its looking at an aggressive expansion of its US business.

BlueScope is a buy in my book as it provides good exposure to a range of sectors in the US and because the stock is cheap.

Naysayers will point out that consensus forecast is tipping a drop in profits in FY20 but I think the bad news is already in the price with the stock trading on a price-earnings of 8 times for that year.
 

Ann

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Bluescope's US expansion plans remain on track after record first half
Bluescope said plans for US expansion remain on track as strong demand for its steel products drove a record $624.3 million net profit for the December half with expectations of a 10 per cent lift in earnings before interest at tax for the current year to $1.269 billion.

Bluescope chief executive Mark Vassella said the result was driven by strong demand, and profit margins in both the US and Australia along with a tailwind from foreign exchange rates. More....

Here is an EquiVolume chart which shows any price level pressure. BSL looks fine as far as no major selling pressure at any level.

BSL EV 25.2.19.png
 

tinhat

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With the company now about $95m into its second $250m share buy-back, building demand is causing the share price to gap up on volume. Of interest to me is that today the share price closed above the 200 day moving average for the first time in six months. I hold.

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Sentiment for BSL has changed dramatically. There's been no news and the buyback program continues. Now at major support level.

bsl3105.PNG
 

tinhat

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I'm out for a very small profit. Happy to sit on the cash for the minute and pursue better opportunities elsewhere in due course. A good solid company but at the wrong end of the cycle and sentiment to be holding.
 

bigdog

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ASX announcement today
8/10/2019 10:03:48 AM Update on Regulatory Proceedings (PDF 70.0 KB)

upload_2019-10-8_15-42-24.png

Since the 30 August announcement, the BlueScope share price has fallen 6.65% lower to $11.66, prior to this morning’s open.

However, the BlueScope share price remains up 7.47% since the start of the year and BlueScope still boasts a market cap of just under $6 billion.



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We've dropped the BSL ball since the last post. In late Oct19 BSL broke through HR at 13.20. This would mark the start of a new up trend for me on the weekly chart. Having missed that setup my next opportunity is the BO > 14.67 (see the daily chart). Price is now at 15.00 which is an old high.

BSL has shown relative strength (vs. XAO) since the BO in Oct (wkly) and earlier on the daily RSC (top pane). Price didn't fall much last week in the two day sell off and has recovered quickly.

bsl0912.PNG
 
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