Bitcoin Price - Where is it heading?

[Garpal Gumnut]

I had been dismissive of Bitcoin for many years, but no more. The advantages of peer to peer exchange are becoming apparent particularly with AI. Tokens will predominate in future instead of mixed portfolios and Bitcoin with a limit on supply will predominate in that environment.

Rather like gold does in the traditional money space. This is a nice 6 mo. bullish chart.




gg

 

[Dona Ferentes]

. The advantages of peer to peer exchange are becoming apparent particularly with AI. Tokens will predominate in future instead of mixed portfolios

gg

sell me that story, o please.

 

[over9k]

XRP is the one to watch if you want to make a tokenisation play.

(yes I have some)

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

sell me that story, o please.

O key doh key.

Say you have a portfolio manager or a large super fund which has hundreds or thousands of members each with their own ideas on what stocks, property or bonds should be held in an individual or a fund portfolio. Weekly there would be thousands of individual changes in perception leading to action by each player.

This perforce would involve many thousands of individual transactions, rebalancing and finalisations and that it without taking fees and currency fluctuations in to account.

In comes AI and Tokens. The fund might say we need to make between 6% and 8% gain net of fees in our portfolio per annum. It adjusts for the stayers, those who set and forget, and the changers who switch frequently.

The stayers e.g instruct the fund to deliver 5.5% pa and the switchers instead of costing the fund money in manpower and fees continuously switching instead are tokenised to make individual transactions within the overall health of the fund i.e. making a profit.

There would be little human effort involved with the usual disclaimers saying that the bots cannot guarantee a profit. So property transactions, buying and selling of stock and smaller funds/etf's is all done via tokens within tokens within tokens. It al dribbles down to the dribblers at the end of the year who with one click of a mouse can see how much of their token containing some or all of the above has performed.

Bitcoin sits at the top as an immutable store of value for when everyone wants to get out of the lift all at once as gold does now for traditional money.

gg

 

[houtman]

Interesting ruling, no doubt it will get pushed higher up the courts by the ATO.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

a record high > $108k

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

a record high > $108k

Thanks @Dona Ferentes .The Van Eck ETF for Bitcoin traded in $AUD follows the price of actual BTC in $USD pretty closely. It reached an all time high as well earlier today but has since retraced a little.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Bitcoin continues it's march, a slight retracement today.



As does VBTC in $AUD



gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Well, BTC is falling back a bit. That descending triangle from the high is a bit of a worry. I'm still holding my VBTC and will ride out any retracement.



gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Well, BTC is falling back a bit. That descending triangle from the high is a bit of a worry. I'm still holding my VBTC and will ride out any retracement.

View attachment 200406

gg

That desc triangle is still developing today on a 3 mo. chart. Everyone is tipping it to go up but I see a fall. Perhaps I'm wrong and everyone else is correct.

https://www.kitco.com/price/crypto/bitcoin

gg

 

[ShareSuccess]

STACKED​

Bitcoin is part of a new age corporate treasury toolkit that’s moved beyond numbers into a belief system embedded in code. But stacking sats comes with volatility – the kind you can’t always explain in quarterly reports.

Remember when corporate treasuries were built on cash, bonds, and a CFO’s dream of steady yield? Not anymore. A number of companies are swapping stable alternatives for Bitcoin. Leading the charge is Strategy ($MSTR), holding US$63.2b BTC - close to 3% of all BTC in circulation. Strategy’s so-called Bitcoin Treasury playbook has helped offset declining revenue from its legacy software business. Today $MSTR trades like a Bitcoin ETF with its stock price rising whenever BTC rallies. But there’s a catch. Recognising non-cash impairment charges tied to the digital asset leads to a wild swing in net income – from +86.5% in 2023 to -1161% more recently. That hasn’t deterred Japanese firm Metaplanet ($MTPLF) from replicating Strategy’s strategy. The budget hotel operator is now the ninth-largest public holder of BTC with a US$946m stash. Metaplanet timed its entry well. It posted the strongest financial results in its 20-year history in Q1. Bitcoin income accounted for 88% of its quarterly revenue. Both Strategy and Metaplanet use BTC Yield - the growth in Bitcoin per diluted share - to measure treasury performance. Based on share price alone, it seems to be working for them, although it’s as much a last-ditch effort to turn around BAU failures. The same can’t be said for GameStop ($GME). They raised US$4b from issuing new shares during ‘meme stock’ surges, earning roughly US$100m a year in interest income from that cash pile. But crypto may be where investors draw the line as $GME declined after announcing a US$513m BTC buy. Strategy, Metaplanet and GameStop are more extreme examples of a Bitcoin-focused treasuries pivot. But firms with more modest allocations have also seen a payoff. Tesla ($TSLA) has around 3% of its cash reserves in Bitcoin, which boosted Q4 net income by $US600m. There's now 130 public companies who hold more Bitcoin than ETF issuers or funds. But as Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick points out, roughly half those firms will be underwater if Bitcoin falls below US$90,000. Bitcoin treasuries remain a radical approach. Advocates call it diversification. Critics say Bitcoin is a high risk asset that has no place in a treasury. Shareholders at Amazon ($AMZN), Microsoft ($MSFT) and Meta ($META) seem to agree. They’ve issued hard passes on proposals to set up a Bitcoin reserve. It may not fix broken business models, but Bitcoin is proving one thing: in today's markets, narrative is almost as valuable as net income. The Wrap.....Stake

 

[ducati916]

To date the correct strategy re. BTC has been to buy and hold.

The advent of the BTC ETF's, BTC treasury companies, who hold billions of dollars of BTC have definitely pushed BTC price higher. As stated in the article, that price increase drives the 'earnings' used very loosely.

When no new BTC are mined, what drives the price higher? That is to say, buy and hold no longer works. You need new supply to make buy and hold actually work when there are no earnings.

The first to sell garners the maximum profit.

In a tsunami of selling, price falls very quickly, forcing further selling, particularly if you have outstanding debt used to purchase BTC.


How is gold different?

So gold is used as a reserve asset currently.

This means that in cross border trading, import/export surplus/deficits net net can be settled in gold. In theory, BTC could act in the same way. The issue is that gold already trades this way and the market price is already a function of that use (and in fact the POG has been suppressed for 50yrs). BTC would need to go through a price discovery process for this to happen (BTC has been hyped for 15yrs).

It is very probable that the price so discovered for BTC would be lower. The reason being in BTC we have had essentially a one way market, particularly recently with BTC ETF's and BTC Treasury companies.

An issue to BTC being used as a reserve asset however is the issue of finite supply. Gold increases at a rate of about 2%/annum from new gold mined etc. This is important as it reduces the speculative froth in times of rampant speculation.

BTC does not have this function. What it does have is electronic divisibility. 1/10, 1/1000, 1/100000000, etc. Possibly this works.

With the increase of AI, quantum computing, what makes you think the encryption is safe for all-time? That it cannot be hacked? It's being hacked already. This is a problem that will only deteriorate.

First mover advantage goes to gold. Gold is already the sovereign nation's choice for reserve asset etc. VHS, betamax, one succeeded one disappeared. MSFT, Netscape. The list is endless.


Interesting.


jog on
duc