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Bitcoin price discussion and analysis

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I don't trade coins but I do mine them. I set it all up as a proper business completely above board etc and everything's been fine. My revenue is what I sell each coin for, my costs are my power bill, my capex is pretty obvious, all is well.
 
over9k said:
I don't trade coins but I do mine them. I set it all up as a proper business completely above board etc and everything's been fine. My revenue is what I sell each coin for, my costs are my power bill, my capex is pretty obvious, all is well.
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How much roughly return do you make after electricity costs and rough figure on hw investment? I was thinking about it too long this winter and summer is around the corner so worst time to start mining
 
againsthegrain said:
How much roughly return do you make after electricity costs and rough figure on hw investment? I was thinking about it too long this winter and summer is around the corner so worst time to start mining
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About 100k. The ROI is about 150% at current prices. Currently looking at getting a big solar array installed which has a roughly 20% ROI. Very seriously looking at going all out with 3 phase power, 30kw solar system etc etc. My parents live on acreage so it's as simple as just dropping a couple of shipping containers on the ground, cutting the ends off/removing the doors and installing mesh (for airflow), running the wires, and that's it. Zero rent.

It's all set up at one of my family's properties down in tassie where it's nice & cold though - no way I'd do it up in QLD or wherever.

I can take a couple of pictures of some of my rigs if you like?
 

Whoah sounds like a serious setup, I was thinking maybe to try around 10k in a garage in Melbourne but will prob light up on 40 degree days. Sure out of curiosity show us
 
You mining any of the solana ecosystem coins?
Really interested in the setup actually.
I was gearing to do something similar but got lost on nfts.
 
Nah just whatever's most profitable at current prices.

I'm putting another rig together today, I'll take some pictures for you guys when I'm done.
 
Ok so here's one I got together today:



It should be a 12 gpu rig but I still have plenty of stuff in the mail and post is painfully slow at the moment for obvious reasons.

So, currently it's 8x RX6800's doing about 60mh at 120w each.


Once it's fully set up, it'll be 12 gpu's at approx $70/day in revenue with $5/day in power costs. I got 11 GPU's 2nd hand for $1200 each, had to buy one new to make the 12, and then had to buy the motherboard and ancillaries.

All up, about $16k invested.


365*65=23725

23725/16k=1.482 or approx 148% (let's call it 150) ROI.
 
How many solar panels am I allowed to stick around my yard again?
 
moXJO said:
How many solar panels am I allowed to stick around my yard again?
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10kw downstream on single phase power (you install about 13kw of panels but only 10kw of inverters so you still get the full 10kw when the sun is lower in the morning/evening and also when it's overcast) and 30kw if you have 3 phase power.
 
qldfrog said:
As many as you want if you do not connect to the grid
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But then I'd need battery. Be interesting once they bring cheap storage.

over9k said:
10kw downstream on single phase power (you install about 13kw of panels but only 10kw of inverters so you still get the full 10kw when the sun is lower in the morning/evening and also when it's overcast) and 30kw if you have 3 phase power.
Click to expand...
What's the risk to the setup?
Coins crashing, regulation, house burning down?
 
moXJO said:
What's the risk to the setup?
Coins crashing, regulation, house burning down?
Click to expand...
The tech used is well outdated every few years also with faster rigs always being made.

Add quantum computing to that list as well, however it's probably still a good couple of years off at a guess, but if/ when quantum does break it into crypto, it will flood the market, with the obvious effect of dilution... (I can see a case for Bitcoin value to go up, as there is a finite amount available. How much will that final bitcoin be worth if it can ever actually be mined? )?

Good to see current prices etc @over9k and thanks for sharing details. ?
Am I right in my thinking, that one has to actually get lucky so to speak, as to actually mine a bit coin?
I'm guessing your not in a pool from what you've said.

I am of the understanding it's not a case of just continuously mining (hashrate and time based) then after a certain amount of time, presto, you mine a coin.
Is my thinking correct it's more of a case that the system needs to be the one that crunches that final successful block algo/ code...whatever it's called?
Right place at the right time scenario? Or have I got it all wrong...?

How/ when does your system switch between highest value coins?

I remember when I looked into it all a bit around 3 ? years ago, ROI wasn't even quite at 100% on a year.
I didn't speculate for bitcoin to go so high either... no risk no reward, but the risk wasnt something I wanted to take on.
 
moXJO said:
But then I'd need battery. Be interesting once they bring cheap storage.


What's the risk to the setup?
Coins crashing, regulation, house burning down?
Click to expand...
One option would be to go without storage or minimum one and mine 12h a day.
Slash returns by 2 but free power..i would go that way. I live in qld so basically nearly 12h daylight all year round.
A point: most mining occurs in the northern hemisphere, in northern winter,power should be more expensive there overall.
So you could have a competitive cost advantage in december here mining like mad in Melbourne or Hobart,
Think about it:
A crypto is a virtual representation of energy.so potentially this is where your extra profit can be.
Obviously,forget plugging to the grid for that as we have one of the most expensive power on earth
 
moXJO said:
But then I'd need battery. Be interesting once they bring cheap storage.


What's the risk to the setup?
Coins crashing, regulation, house burning down?
Click to expand...
Yes and no to all three:

At current prices, your revenue is about 13x your costs. That's massive. But your capex is obviously where it has potential to bite you.

But at current prices, there's a 150% ROI. Even if the price of coins was to halve and drop you down to 70% ROI, that's still absolutely phenomenal.

Regulation: Yes, there's a lot of talk about it. The first time anyone mentions it, there's uproar. There's a lot of debate about how politically possible regulation will actually be. They rolled out the enviromental excuse (using power that causes global warming blah blah) but that's easily gamed with the use of solar panels or installing everything in iceland where they use geothermal power or... Well, you get the point.

The reason why china nuked it is because their electricity grid was buckling under the strain as it is and steel mills employ far more people than bitcoin mines do. China can't even build its grid out fast enough without the coins being mined let alone with them, so from their government's perspective, they had no choice.

I have no doubt that if their electricity grid had twice the capacity it does then they'd be all for it.


House burning down - yes, if you set it all up like an idiot. But you should also have insurance. You can also set it up out in a shed or something like I plan on doing. Keeping it all cold is key from both a safety perspective as well as an efficiency one - the colder they are, the better they work.

Anyone that burns a house down doing this deserves everything they get. There's no shortage of idiots out there that have tried to draw far far more power through their cables (both to the rig and within it) than they are rated for and had fires because of it. I have no sympathy for these people at all, the fires are a product of nothing other than their own stupidity/not knowing what they are messing with/overconfidence.

Cables have power ratings for a reason.


Alternatively, they set it all up somewhere that just doesn't have the necessary airflow/cooling, overheat/cook everything, and cause a fire that way. Again, nothing but their own stupidity, so again, no sympathy from me at all.

Correct, computers are an arms race like that. But your old hardware does not stop being profitable, it's just not as profitable as the new stuff. Classic osborne effect - if you were always waiting for the next gen of better hardware, you'd never buy anything.

Reference actually mining a whole coin - yes, to mine a whole coin yourself you're looking at dozens of gpu's running for an entire year, but the way I do it is with a program called "nicehash" which actually rents my (and lots of other people's) processing power out to someone else who gets the coin but this person pays me in increments every four hours.

So this solves the cashflow problem for me at the expense of that person obviously taking a cut for making the payouts every 4 hours until a whole coin is mined.

But with that being said, their cut is only 0.6% of the actual value, so it's well worth it.


To mine a coin in under four hours miners work in "pools" of thousands of people in order to get the number crunching power necessary to get it done in that amount of time. This, again, involves a small cut being taken, but again, when it's only <1%, it's well worth it.

You CAN just mine a coin as yourself/your own pool but it, as I mentioned earlier, will take you months and months and months (or years, depending on how many rigs you have) to get paid out unless you have thousands (and the minimum really is in the thousands) of your own gpu's set up in a massive warehouse or something. Unless you have THAT many under your own control, running your own pool/solo operation is a fool's errand. Remember, you don't get *anything* until the whole job is done so if you think of it like a business, you have a massive cashflow problem as you're spending money hand over fist for months (or even years) until you finally get the whole payout at the end of the job unless you have thousands and thousands of gpu's running that can punch you out a coin every few days or so.

Think of it like building a skyscraper on your own - I mean you can, but it'll take you forever. Much better to work as a team with hundreds of other guys and get it done quickly as the time you save is well worth the extra money it'll cost you. Make sense?
 
I've posted this before but I'll repost it for those that haven't seen it:

This is an example of one of those guys that has thousands and thousands of his own gpu's in a massive warehouse under his control/running in his own pool that I was talking about:

 
You mean the last day or so? The whole market crashed. Bitcoin's just like a high beta position on the market as a whole.
 
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