Australian Federal Election - 2022

sptrawler · 23 May 2022

@SirRumpole and @basilio the enthusiasm is contagious, but the reality is not good for either major party, the graph below shows that the general public find both parties on the nose. Labor just won office with the lowest primary vote ever in Australia.
A win is a win, but reading things into it that aren't there, could lead to disappointment.
The good thing is, it wont be a boring three years, as it would have been under the coalition, they had to be flipped and they were.

'It's the national electorate that's breaking apart': Antony Green on the election result

After a bruising night for the Coalition, Labor has emerged victorious in Saturday's federal election. Here, ABC chief election analyst Antony Green takes us through some of the key takeaways — and still unanswered questions.

www.abc.net.au

From the article:
What last night's result shows is that the two major parties are no longer represented across all parts of the country. There was a time when both major parties would get a substantial majority of the vote in every seat.

People are looking at the national vote level, and missing the fact that the change is occurring at a much lower level; there are parts of cities where Labor's votes have disappeared, and there are parts of the country where the Liberals and Nationals did very poorly and the independents did well.

It's the national electorate that's breaking apart.

moXJO · 23 May 2022

sptrawler said:
@SirRumpole and @basilio the enthusiasm is contagious, but the reality is not good for either major party, the graph below shows that the general public find both parties on the nose. Labor just won office with the lowest primary vote ever in Australia.
A win is a win, but reading things into it that aren't there, could lead to disappointment.
The good thing is, it wont be a boring three years, as it would have been under the coalition, they had to be flipped and they were.

'It's the national electorate that's breaking apart': Antony Green on the election result

After a bruising night for the Coalition, Labor has emerged victorious in Saturday's federal election. Here, ABC chief election analyst Antony Green takes us through some of the key takeaways — and still unanswered questions.

www.abc.net.au

View attachment 142055

From the article:
What last night's result shows is that the two major parties are no longer represented across all parts of the country. There was a time when both major parties would get a substantial majority of the vote in every seat.

People are looking at the national vote level, and missing the fact that the change is occurring at a much lower level; there are parts of cities where Labor's votes have disappeared, and there are parts of the country where the Liberals and Nationals did very poorly and the independents did well.

It's the national electorate that's breaking apart.

I agree with "libs lost, Labor didn't win".
Libs made a series of errors that turned off the lib leaning swing voters. Even conservatives in general.

Realistically libs should have been gone last election, but Shorten was unpalatable.
Labor learnt from that last election, where as libs didn't. Labors run up to this election was where they won it. They all shut up and went incognito. None of them blasted their idiot gobs about idiotic issues. They remained pretty silent. Credit to them. Especially during the "mean girls" episode.

Albanese played a small (mentally deficient) target.
Never got to cost anything and his best week was probably when he was off with covid.

Scomo on the other hand was under constant pressure from the get go. He never found traction during the election. He was already gone before the election started.

I'm seeing articles that it's the end of the libs. But I think big parties are in trouble regardless. Albo needs to deliver a centre sensible agenda or he is gone.

Logique2 · 23 May 2022

Source:
[Johannes] 'Leak brilliant [in The Australian] on the carnage'
Monday, 23 May 2022: https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2022/05/leak-brilliant-on-the-carnage.html

SirRumpole · 23 May 2022

moXJO said:
I agree with "libs lost, Labor didn't win".
Libs made a series of errors that turned off the lib leaning swing voters. Even conservatives in general.

Realistically libs should have been gone last election, but Shorten was unpalatable.
Labor learnt from that last election, where as libs didn't. Labors run up to this election was where they won it. They all shut up and went incognito. None of them blasted their idiot gobs about idiotic issues. They remained pretty silent. Credit to them. Especially during the "mean girls" episode.

Albanese played a small (mentally deficient) target.
Never got to cost anything and his best week was probably when he was off with covid.

Scomo on the other hand was under constant pressure from the get go. He never found traction during the election. He was already gone before the election started.

I'm seeing articles that it's the end of the libs. But I think big parties are in trouble regardless. Albo needs to deliver a centre sensible agenda or he is gone.

The push to the Left is a bit alarming.

The Greens mean well but aren't particularly practical when it comes to the detail of power generation or wealth creation.

IMO Albo has to keep them under control and show people the practicalities of Labor policies and somehow differentiate Labor from the Greens and get back some of their primary vote.

Smurf1976 · 23 May 2022

moXJO said:
I'm seeing articles that it's the end of the libs.

Reminds me of Tasmania in 1998 where the Liberals basically were reduced to minor party status, indeed at one point there was public discussion as to whether they ought properly be referred to as a party given the few MP's they still had in parliament.

2014 they won a majority at the state election and have been in government ever since.

That's a state example but point is political parties do ultimately regroup and find their way back.

Another well I recall reading circa 1995 comments in newspapers to the effect that an entire generation had grown up seeing Labor as the natural choice for federal government. A year later Howard won the election and remained in office for the next 11 years.

At some future time the Coalition will be in government again.

wayneL · 23 May 2022

Some pretty interesting analysis here from the IPA, which echos other jurisdictions outside the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics of Australia.

"The IPA’s John Roskam says 16 of the “poorest 20 seats” in Australia are held by the Liberal Party, which are the ones the Coalition must “fight for and stand for”.

“The Labor Party now holds more wealthy seats than does the Liberal Party,” Mr Roskam told Sky News host Peta Credlin.

“After Saturday night, seven of the wealthiest 20 electorates in Australia are held by the Labor Party, five by the Liberals.

“It’s not just a question of what do the Liberals need to do to get into the government again, it’s a question of what do they want to be, who do they want fight for.

“And, certainly, from my position, as a Liberal Party member and from the IPA’s position, the people who need a voice are those hit by rise in power prices, are those who are concerned about their children’s education.

“It is not the post-material emotional appeal of the teals, of the Greens, and now of large sections of the Labor Party that the Liberal Party should be repeating.”

sptrawler · 23 May 2022

wayneL said:
Some pretty interesting analysis here from the IPA, which echos other jurisdictions outside the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics of Australia.

"The IPA’s John Roskam says 16 of the “poorest 20 seats” in Australia are held by the Liberal Party, which are the ones the Coalition must “fight for and stand for”.

“The Labor Party now holds more wealthy seats than does the Liberal Party,” Mr Roskam told Sky News host Peta Credlin.

“After Saturday night, seven of the wealthiest 20 electorates in Australia are held by the Labor Party, five by the Liberals.

“It’s not just a question of what do the Liberals need to do to get into the government again, it’s a question of what do they want to be, who do they want fight for.

“And, certainly, from my position, as a Liberal Party member and from the IPA’s position, the people who need a voice are those hit by rise in power prices, are those who are concerned about their children’s education.

“It is not the post-material emotional appeal of the teals, of the Greens, and now of large sections of the Labor Party that the Liberal Party should be repeating.”

The general public is driven by the media, the media is driven by the advertising dollar, the advertising dollar is driven by the elites.

The problem is the elites in Australia are so comfortable they want a cause, they now have a cause, climate change, let's watch how it pans out. ?

IMO a bit of a James Packer moment, it will be interesting watching it unfolds.
As I told a manager once, a company can always run without a manager, it can't run without a worker.
Well that was 20 years ago, before technology. ?

SirRumpole · 23 May 2022

sptrawler said:
The general public is driven by the media, the media is driven by the advertising dollar, the advertising dollar is driven by the elites.
The problem is the elites in Australia are so comfortable they want a cause, they now have a cause, let's watch how it pans out. ?

Just watching Media Watch which makes the point that the Murdoch media was overwehelmingly negative about Labor and the Teals and the public totally ignored them.

So parts of the media are cr@p but the public are wise to them and think for themselves.

sptrawler · 23 May 2022

SirRumpole said:
Just watching Media Watch which makes the point that the Murdoch media was over we helmingly negative about Labor and the Teals and the public totally ignored them.

So parts of the media are cr@p but the public are wise to them and think for themselves.

Or maybe Murdoch will be proven right, time will tell.
I'm not one way or the other other, I can cope whoever wins and I'm not religiously tied to either party.
What I do know from working since I left school at 15 is, watching someone on T.V telling me how to think, is why I run my own SMSF. ?
I have the greenest missus ever, catches all the washing machine water in buckets and takes it into the garden, all that $hit.
Well today we had a flood the water tank I had to put in when i built the man shed flooded the garage, reason being she planted trees all around it and it plugged the inlet filter, i asked have you ever used the tank?answer NO, so I said why not give it to the son who lives on the 100 acre block?
Another $1,000 brain fart that I can't mention.

IFocus · 23 May 2022

wayneL said:
Some pretty interesting analysis here from the IPA, which echos other jurisdictions outside the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics of Australia.

"The IPA’s John Roskam says 16 of the “poorest 20 seats” in Australia are held by the Liberal Party, which are the ones the Coalition must “fight for and stand for”.

“The Labor Party now holds more wealthy seats than does the Liberal Party,” Mr Roskam told Sky News host Peta Credlin.

“After Saturday night, seven of the wealthiest 20 electorates in Australia are held by the Labor Party, five by the Liberals.

“It’s not just a question of what do the Liberals need to do to get into the government again, it’s a question of what do they want to be, who do they want fight for.

“And, certainly, from my position, as a Liberal Party member and from the IPA’s position, the people who need a voice are those hit by rise in power prices, are those who are concerned about their children’s education.

“It is not the post-material emotional appeal of the teals, of the Greens, and now of large sections of the Labor Party that the Liberal Party should be repeating.”

You mean the IPA puppet masters of the Liberal Party, suspect that the education levels are higher in the Teal seats and many Labor seats hence people saw through the Murdock / Liberal BS. It really did get to the point of ridiculous in the end.

Still Barrie Cassidy pointed out that both majors primary vote has trended down for some time and he wouldn't be surprised if this was the last government elected as a majority seat wise.

If that's the case suspect that Labor being the centrist party would be the 1st stop for the Teals and could be around for some time Liberals might be out for some time.

I make that point above after hearing right wing opinions says the Teals are left of Labor.

moXJO · 23 May 2022

All depends on how badly the economy is going to go. If it's up the shtter then Labor could be one term wonders.

Same with the borders. Labor do not want boats floating in again. Once the negative news builds up, governments are done.

sptrawler · 23 May 2022

moXJO said:
All depends on how badly the economy is going to go. If it's up the shtter then Labor could be one term wonders.

Same with the borders. Labor do not want boats floating in again. Once the negative news builds up, governments are done.

I think the biggest issue will be fossil fuel.
The greens want to absolutely ban it, it is their and the Teals ethos, that is going to hurt so bad it doesn't bear thinking about IMO.
Time will tell, but the green wave is going to be tested in the next three years.
The Greens want coal gone by 2030, they are supported by the Teals it is what they auditioned on, let's see how it goes IMO.
From a technical perspective.
There is one thing talking the talk, another thing tripping over your feet, 2030 is 7.5 years away two terms of Government near enough. ?
I feel another brain fart coming on.
Here is a news forecast, due to unforeseen circumstances, the removal of coal generation has been postponed, the management is extremely sorry for the inconvenience.

PZ. · 24 May 2022

Hehe... the teals will go after Labor at the next election and probably pick up another 10 seats + whatever Lib/Lab seats fall after ICAC turn the joint over.

That'll keep the bastards honest

Knobby22 · 24 May 2022

You have to be credulous to believe Peta Credlin.

When you have people in Toorak and Hawthorn and Brighton voting in the teals, who many are daughters of ex Liberal members you have a problem.
The main reasons they are there, lack of integrity, difficulty for women to get past the old boy network and making Australia the world laggard on climate change and Scomo spin.
hey won't exist next election unless the Libs act against their own interests.
I doubt they will remain next election as long as the Libs don't listen to Peta (I destroyed my PM) Credlin.

basilio · 24 May 2022

I wonder if the IPA ever considered that many , many people including Liberal voters

1) Recognise that climate change is very real and serious and needs to be addressed
2) Want a government to be (reasonably) honest and aren't impressed with an administration that refuses to take action that ensures that outcome
3) Believe women shouldn't be disrespected and are equally important in our society.

Given that was the platform for most of the Teals then maybe the results are no real surprise.

SirRumpole · 24 May 2022

basilio said:
I wonder if the IPA ever considered that many , many people including Liberal voters

1) Recognise that climate change is very real and serious and needs to be addressed
2) Want a government to be (reasonably) honest and aren't impressed with an administration that refuses to take action that ensures that outcome
3) Believe women shouldn't be disrespected and are equally important in our society.

Given that was the platform for most of the Teals then maybe the results are no real surprise.

The IPA follow Thatcher's " there is no such thing as society" motto. Nothing except money means anything to them.

wayneL · 24 May 2022

IFocus said:
You mean the IPA puppet masters of the Liberal Party, suspect that the education levels are higher in the Teal seats and many Labor seats hence people saw through the Murdock / Liberal BS. It really did get to the point of ridiculous in the end.

Still Barrie Cassidy pointed out that both majors primary vote has trended down for some time and he wouldn't be surprised if this was the last government elected as a majority seat wise.

If that's the case suspect that Labor being the centrist party would be the 1st stop for the Teals and could be around for some time Liberals might be out for some time.

I make that point above after hearing right wing opinions says the Teals are left of Labor.

Knobby22 said:
You have to be credulous to believe Peta Credlin.

When you have people in Toorak and Hawthorn and Brighton voting in the teals, who many are daughters of ex Liberal members you have a problem.
The main reasons they are there, lack of integrity, difficulty for women to get past the old boy network and making Australia the world laggard on climate change and Scomo spin.
hey won't exist next election unless the Libs act against their own interests.
I doubt they will remain next election as long as the Libs don't listen to Peta (I destroyed my PM) Credlin.

It reminds me of the time I lived in the UK; I was *walking back to my modest home with a trolley full of modestly packaged groceries (as modestly as we could find anyway), to be lectured by a woman for buying some bottled water.

Her trolley was full of plastic including half an orange in its own plastic tray and plastic coverings. Which she proceeded to load into her V8 petrol Range Rover, no doubt to drive home to a detached, centrally heated, double storey home.

These trendy Teal type elitists are hypocrites of the highest order, intent only on virtue signalling to their mates at dinner parties about how green they are for buying a Tesla model X (with plaid trim) while bragging about their Lear jet.

Give me a freaking break while you calculate the carbon footprints of Simon Holmes a Court and the Teals.

Credlin is right, the last thing this country needs is two Labor parties, as close to that as we are already.

I agree that authoritarian conservatism is not the way to go, (ah la Dutton) but we do need the Liberals to go back to their classical liberal, Menzian roots.

</personalopinion>

basilio · 24 May 2022

SirRumpole said:
The IPA follow Thatcher's " there is no such thing as society" motto. Nothing except money means anything to them.

Fair comment. I wonder if they would enjoy a meal of molten gold? They could take it all with them

Ridiculous History: Sentenced to Death by Molten Gold Down the Throat

Imagine burning molten metal poured into your open mouth. That horrifying form of execution actually happened — and scientists studied what actually killed the victim.

history.howstuffworks.com

wayneL · 24 May 2022

Guys, I am a member of the IPA and what you say cannot be further from the truth. It's just some pretty silly demonisation to be honest.

SirRumpole · 24 May 2022

wayneL said:
Guys, I am a member of the IPA and what you say cannot be further from the truth. It's just some pretty silly demonisation to be honest.

Australian Federal Election - 2022

Who will win the the upcoming Federal Election?

Liberal/National

Labor Party

Left supported Balance of Power (Greens, indi, etc)

Right supported Balance of Power (Lib Dems, PUP, One Nation, etc)

sptrawler

'It's the national electorate that's breaking apart': Antony Green on the election result

moXJO

menace to society

'It's the national electorate that's breaking apart': Antony Green on the election result

Logique2

SirRumpole

Smurf1976

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

sptrawler

SirRumpole

sptrawler

IFocus

You are arguing with a Galah

moXJO

menace to society

sptrawler

PZ.

( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

Knobby22

Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast

basilio

SirRumpole

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

basilio

Ridiculous History: Sentenced to Death by Molten Gold Down the Throat

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

SirRumpole

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Australian Federal Election - 2022

Who will win the the upcoming Federal Election?

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Labor Party

Left supported Balance of Power (Greens, indi, etc)

Right supported Balance of Power (Lib Dems, PUP, One Nation, etc)

menace to society

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

You are arguing with a Galah

menace to society

( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

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