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AUD

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Hi All

Just wanted to know your thoughts on where AUD dollar will end up overnight over the JPY???

Cheers
 
My probably simplistic and misguided view of the currency situation is the appreciation of the $US is simply due to the fact it is perceived to be "safe" such as the reputation of gold.

I was always taught in Economics that expectations are more important than facts. I believe this may be the case. People are flocking to the safe haven US currency.

Im pretty upset as I have saved up for a 2 month overseas holiday to south east asia. I did my budget when the currency was at 94c, and being taught good conservative accounting theories at uni, i budgeted for the dollar in case it dropped to the 75-85 range. I didnt expect in a few weeks for it to drop under 65c...

I have non refundable Jetstar flights, but im seriously thinking about not going now...
 
maffu said:
I have non refundable Jetstar flights, but im seriously thinking about not going now...
Click to expand...

I don't know your financial situation but I'd go anyway. With currencies you'll always win some and lose some. Case in point, my folks were here 2 months ago, I told them to send me some AUDs and I'd give them 5.75 SEK (Swedish crowns). Better than they could possibly get, even through a decent Forex agent. I have extended family arriving today and they're going to be blessed with an exchange rate of 4.75 SEK...plus the gouge rates applied by the credit card companies.
 
With the currency in free fall and our banks borrowing heavyily from overseas to fund lending. Will we become the next Iceland?
 
If the $AUBananaBuck stays hovering at these sorts of levels ($USD 0.630 or lower) a month from now, an awful lot of importers and retailers of imported goods who are already doing it tough are going to be either going out of business or seriously dumping staff.

The reason for this is that the flow on effect takes a few weeks to kick in - most importers/retailers are probably holding mostly stock bought in from a week to a few weeks or a month ago when the $AUBananaBuck was waaay higher.

However, once that stock has dwindled or sold out over the coming weeks they HAVE NO CHOICE but to restock with goods that are going to be maybe 10, 20 or 30% more expensive. With 1,000's of importers and retailers staying afloat on very thin trading margins in ultra-competitive markets, the downside of the currency slide is really going to hit home hard - not only to these businesses but to consumers as well.

Xmas time is looming to appear like it might not be so Merry this year....


aj
 
It seems like a taboo issue but how near is the AUD/USD to bottoming out?

The chart back to 1988 has NO drop that we have just had over the last 2 1/2 months.It is insane to think there will not be a bounce back in the near future.2001-2002 had bottoms of around 50c but surely that will not happen in one fell swoop!

There is two possibilities in my opinion and that is a reversal sharp and fast (miss the boat buddy ) to match the decline or a controlled level out and rise again.

There are plenty of opportunities.Timing, skill (lol) and a bit of luck should do it.
 

im 100% certain that the Aussie Dollar has a 50% chance of going up in the morning...

heres the daily chart...

AUD/USD

im my analysis i think we may see some testing of the current level followed by a sharp move upwards... dont listen to me tho im novice
 

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I would not be short AUD on open. After Rudds announcement...UNLIMTED guarantee on bank deposits for 3 years, plus the still existent deposit interest differential expect massive demand for AUDs at these levels.

AUD is most undervalued currency in the G10 block right now, SEK is most overvalued. Can tell you which I'm sending money right now!
 
The AU$ will keep dropping and dropping, who is buying this junk?

Even the third world country currencies are beating the AU$ at the moment.

WBII
 
Warren Buffet II said:
The AU$ will keep dropping and dropping, who is buying this junk?

Even the third world country currencies are beating the AU$ at the moment.

WBII
Click to expand...

today... Singers were in the mix... rejigging their reserves... not all traders are punters..

Cheers
..........Kauri
 
Man the AUDUSD pair has had some wild swings in the last few weeks. I watched it fall 300 pips last week in less than 1 hour as europe woke for the afternoon session. I managed to jump on a few swings - has anyone else really done well from these swings or using any tactics to detect them?
 
The FT is reporting that Chinese government conglomerate Citic is lumbered with huge losses on FX option positions that include writing AUD/USD put options at 0.8700. The FT article states that as a result of the option contracts they are committed to buying 9.05 BLN AUD/USD at that level each month until October 2010.

Cheers
.........Kauri
 

I am getting the signals but they are getting stopped out at the moment.
Below is the current state approaching midday ( I am on the sidelines)
 

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Re: AUD.USD

Nice shorting opportunity taken on the Kumo break and test.

GTA - arco

Edit..............First order closed +60
 

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And it finally dragged itself over the line...
.
 

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Second order closed at TP

+100
 

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