AUD

BentRod · 9 September 2008

JT
There are a million answers to your question depending on who you ask.

The market does whatever it wants.

Kauri · 9 September 2008

There is talk in the US that there is a surprisingly large number of funds and investors still holding short USD/long commodity/long EUR/long carry trade positions and the price action seen yesterday indicates that could be the case.
Also, this is the SIXTH time in the past 14 months that the US has come out over the weekend with a major initiative in an attempt to save thier market/economy, and interestingly the following rallies have been getting shorter in duration each time... so what does that potentially mean for Fred and Fannies rally??? I'm not holding my breath...

Cheers
..........Kauri

korrupt_1 · 9 September 2008

Daily charts of A/U are showing bullish divergence on Stochs and RSI.

MACD hasn't quite given the signal yet though... but everything looks heavily oversold...

caribean · 9 September 2008

JTLP said:
Sorry Bahamas I was looking for a real answer as I don't have time to look at markets and news etc...so was basically hoping somebody could summarise for me.

Too much to ask? xoxo

Sorry i've got a "b" missing, just a bit of fun, don't take it seriously.
As for the aswer, i've got no idea, it's certainly oversold, but that doesn't mean anything.

korrupt_1 · 9 September 2008

JTLP said:
Am overseas atm...can somebody please fill me in on why the AUD is getting absolutely smashed (esp against the USD).

Have we had rate cuts or anything? Gah I thought going around the world at this stage was fantastic...80cents against the USD

Hi JTLP

Like the othes above mention... heaps of reasons to no reason at all... but here are some of the more recent events that have happened

- RBA rate cuts - 25bp
- Speculation of further rate cuts
- Just in today, weaker Home Loans and Retail Sales
- Last week, building approvals dropped, trade balance in deficit again, less construction work done,...
- Stronger USD, lower oil prices,...

Kauri · 9 September 2008

BentRod said:
Kauri,
Regarding Fridays, do you take many trades?

The price seems to whipsaw more than all the other days and towards the end pretty much does nothing.
Given your wisdom in the FX markets, what is your approach?

Cheers.

PS...A serious answer bigboy

Solly to take so long to answer.. been as busy as a one armed paper-hanger...
Fridays are the days... usually... when the US of A comes out with market moving data... so pre/post ann moves can be unpredictable.. and painfull.
last fliday I wasn't in the mix as.. as posted in various threads... I interpreted the shorter(30 min) TF as a5th wave E?W wise... Nick the Chartist also noted in his excellent service... ( not ramping Mods.. just stating facts ).. that on the dailies he was looking at the end of a 5th... and also the plunge in prices ( I posted somewheres) looked like capitulation from Ms Watanabe to me... and a few other thoughts... so I stood on the sidelines... but usually I don't even know what day it is, let alone what I am trading, so Fridays are the same to me as any other day..
My wisdom in the markets is deceptive... the brilliant trends we have had can make even me look more knowledgable than I am... I run at 35-45% hit rate.. a coin toss beats me... money management,, dats where it's at..

Cheers
...........Kauri

BentRod · 10 September 2008

Thanks BM, much appreciated.

I run at 35-45%

Heh...your running alot better than me big boy :

the brilliant trends we have had can make even me look more knowledgable

I agree.
Wow, these are amazing moves.
I'm only a novice but looking at the charts, I can't see any moves like this since 92 --> Soros+cable etc.

BentRod · 10 September 2008

surprisingly large number of funds and investors still holding short USD/long.....

They are hard to get rid of!

I don't get it, will they continue to wear the pain?

At what point will they be wrong

caribean · 10 September 2008

Looking at the COT report, it's true commercials are net long, but overall about even (for the EUR), AUD commercials net short, take a look for yourselves

Kauri · 10 September 2008

nott the best pattern doing the rounds... butt if Lemmings report is viewed by the market as ... welll.. carrie trade hades... who nose??

Cheers
...........Kauri

BentRod · 11 September 2008

Looking at the COT report, it's true commercials are net long, but overall about even (for the EUR), AUD commercials net short, take a look for yourselves

Have you got a link for the COT?

cheers

Kauri · 11 September 2008

Australian employment data to be released at 01:30 GMT and if it comes in worse than the plus 5K expected, it is likely to result in an "overreaction" and put the AUD under pressure.

Cheers
...........Kauri

Investor123 · 11 September 2008

BentRod said:
Have you got a link for the COT?

cheers

I often update the COT information in my website. Just click on my signature.

Futures Traders Trim Bets on Australian Dollar Gain Vs Dollar

Futures traders decreased their bets that the Australian dollar will gain against the U.S. dollar, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.

The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on an advance in the Australian dollar compared with those on a drop -- so-called net longs -- was 1,377 on Aug. 26, compared with net longs of 5,950 a week earlier.

In the current environment, Europe, UK, Australia, New Zealand may cut interest rate, while US is the only one who is done with its cut. So base on interest rate differentiate, USD should appreciate against EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD.

In my view, any rally on EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD is a selling opportunity.

caribean · 11 September 2008

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmesof.htm

BentRod · 11 September 2008

Cheers big ears.

Wysiwyg · 12 September 2008

Investor123 said:
In my view, any rally on EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD is a selling opportunity.

I get the feeling that with such a sharp correction off 98c a strong rally will be had soon.My chart suggests a pivot point support at 79c but for me I think around 75c is more likely.This 30 year chart shows how sharp the correction has been comparatively.Will check the general consensus in the coming few days/weeks.

Whiskers · 12 September 2008

Wysiwyg said:
I get the feeling that with such a sharp correction off 98c a strong rally will be had soon.My chart suggests a pivot point support at 79c but for me I think around 75c is more likely.This 30 year chart shows how sharp the correction has been comparatively.Will check the general consensus in the coming few days/weeks.

Just off the top of my head I had 75'ish in the not to distant future too by EW .

I'm thinking the sooner it gets to there the sooner our stocks will pick up.

mr_fred · 13 September 2008

Investor123 said:
I
In the current environment, Europe, UK, Australia, New Zealand may cut interest rate, while US is the only one who is done with its cut. So base on interest rate differentiate, USD should appreciate against EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD.

In my view, any rally on EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD is a selling opportunity.

Has your opinion changed with articles like this one appearing?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aYFs3B5DZ36Y&refer=home

With that rally on the AUD$ last night, and 79/80cents support holding a sustained rally could be on the cards to 88cents.

Whiskers · 13 September 2008

mr_fred said:
Has your opinion changed with articles like this one appearing?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aYFs3B5DZ36Y&refer=home

With that rally on the AUD$ last night, and 79/80cents support holding a sustained rally could be on the cards to 88cents.

What, another rate cut!

Bit hard to imagine. If they did it would surely completely ruin their credibility and throw the markets into turmoil.

I also go along with those who subscribe to the notion that a lot of cash that previously headed for commodities etc for protection is now moving around mainly out of commodities and into USD.

I still think the USD has more to gain and the AUD further to fall... still thinking that 75'ish level before any significant correction/reversal.

noirua · 14 September 2008

All I can say about the AUD is, "carry on tanking please". AU$1.40 to the US$1 is what I'm looking for. The sooner the better.

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