ASX Stock Pairs Trade Journal

skc · 12 April 2016

VSntchr said:
CMW buying just under 10% of IOF as the shareholder vote was scheduled for this Friday. That combined with Morgan Stanley being allowed to vote their 8.9% stake has vastly diminished the chances of the 75% needed for approval.
Will be interesting to see what CMW intentions are. As a group they are smaller than IOF by market cap, although they do have access to some big money via their South African 25% owner.

I haven't been trading this pair, but noted that the discount to the offer did expand a little today (2.22%) as DXS went up on the news, while IOF lagged a bit - despite being much more wild.

Remember there's a 7c special dividend if the deal goes through. So the gap at close is ~4.4%. The discount blew out today at one stage to ~6%, with IOF @ 4.06 and DXS @ 8.07.

I think CMW just wants a seat at the table... may be it can carve out a few assets from IOF the way GPT did to CPA.

But who knows...

VSntchr · 13 April 2016

skc said:
Remember there's a 7c special dividend if the deal goes through. So the gap at close is ~4.4%. The discount blew out today at one stage to ~6%, with IOF @ 4.06 and DXS @ 8.07.

Did not know about the special div. Shows my ignorance for the deal, I haven't really watched it until now! Not sure why, as Im sure theres been a few opportunities along the way..

I think CMW just wants a seat at the table... may be it can carve out a few assets from IOF the way GPT did to CPA.
But who knows...

That would be the most logical answer I think.

VSntchr · 14 April 2016

skc said:
Remember there's a 7c special dividend if the deal goes through. So the gap at close is ~4.4%. The discount blew out today at one stage to ~6%, with IOF @ 4.06 and DXS @ 8.07.

Over 7% now.
Anyone want to have a stab at downside for IOF if deal falls through?

CMW statement this morning was a bit hilarious..obviously not giving their full intentions in the announcement...
A side note, the market seems to be discounting CMW as if they will make an offer ...98c v 103.5c earlier in the week. A downgrade by CLSA today probably influencing that a bit too..

skc · 14 April 2016

VSntchr said:
Over 7% now.
Anyone want to have a stab at downside for IOF if deal falls through?

CMW statement this morning was a bit hilarious..obviously not giving their full intentions in the announcement...
A side note, the market seems to be discounting CMW as if they will make an offer ...98c v 103.5c earlier in the week. A downgrade by CLSA today probably influencing that a bit too..

Yes the CMW announcement is very funny... they seem pleased that their share raid caught DXS by surprise.

I shorted CMW as soon as it opened after the news yesterday, but closed it when it didn't move... another case of being too quick for the market (and my own good)!

I don't think IOF will have much to fall... there'd be a bit of flow as people close their takeover long. But now there's CMW lurking in the shadows, plus the NTA @ $3.98. For comparison DXS trades @ 13% premium to IOF. Anything much below NTA would be a good opportunity imo.

Freddy · 18 April 2016

Do either of you, VNC, VSNATCHER, use Alerts in PTF for sending emails?

I want to use it but have had no success with my ISP - bigpond.com.

I would appreciate any feedback.

skc · 18 April 2016

Freddy said:
Do either of you, VNC, VSNATCHER, use Alerts in PTF for sending emails?

I want to use it but have had no success with my ISP - bigpond.com.

I would appreciate any feedback.

No I do not use the email function under alert. It's not really suitable for active trading. Best to ask the support guys to resolve your question.

VSntchr · 18 April 2016

Freddy said:
Do either of you, SKC, VSNATCHER, use Alerts in PTF for sending emails?

I want to use it but have had no success with my ISP - bigpond.com.

I would appreciate any feedback.

I don't use emails either, I have the program open constantly!

BTW, not sure who VNC is..but I think I fixed it

Freddy · 19 April 2016

Sorry, I meant 'skc'. I traded through from Dec 2016 to yesterday (includes the reporting season) using pairs from ASX200 and turned a nice profit regardless. Nothing going at present though - patience required I suppose. Nice to link up with others using PTF.

VSntchr · 19 April 2016

Freddy said:
Sorry, I meant 'skc'. I traded through from Dec 2016 to yesterday (includes the reporting season) using pairs from ASX200 and turned a nice profit regardless. Nothing going at present though - patience required I suppose. Nice to link up with others using PTF.

Indeed, the more the merrier in here - nice to see new users posting.

I have actually had a fairly quiet year also. Have only made 130 trades vs ~190 at this time last year. I have actually started to really ramp it up since last week with a bit of volatility and divergence occurring in multiple sectors that I follow.

Freddy · 26 April 2016

From Dec 1 to Apr 6 I have only had 32 trades. I am only following 34 pairs at present from the ASX 200, so slow.
Profit is 20% on $40,000 bank. Is that good or bad?

skc · 26 April 2016

Freddy said:
From Dec 1 to Apr 6 I have only had 32 trades. I am only following 34 pairs at present from the ASX 200, so slow.
Profit is 20% on $40,000 bank. Is that good or bad?

On the surface, and assuming that you are placing sensible position size to manage your risks, not bad at all! Especially if you are just getting started.

You now can learn to build up the size and build up the number of pairs you are monitoring... and it's not hard to double your activity level in a short time.

Well done and best of luck.

Freddy · 5 May 2016

Trades are done through use of CFDs with $10,000 per leg of a pair. However, that amount is used to obtain the number of shares to be bought but as you probably know, you are buying for between 10 and 25% of the value using CFDs. Biggest exposure was $38,000 when I had 11 trades open. So my $40,000 bank was nearly gone. I have increased it since.

SilverRanger · 5 May 2016

Freddy said:
Trades are done through use of CFDs with $10,000 per leg of a pair. However, that amount is used to obtain the number of shares to be bought but as you probably know, you are buying for between 10 and 25% of the value using CFDs. Biggest exposure was $38,000 when I had 11 trades open. So my $40,000 bank was nearly gone. I have increased it since.

Yes I'm pretty in the same boat with my margin, usually hovers around 90% and occasionally going into margin call.
Getting access to multiple brokers and trading with the lowest margin for a particular stock can help. Earlier this week I've just refreshed my spreadsheet comparing the major DMA providers' margin, happy to share it around. (just drop me a pm)

VSntchr · 17 May 2016

Mr. Yahoo forgetting to turn on data for the second session in a row now.
I had my pairs update overnight but back in stall mode. Anyone else affected?

skc · 17 May 2016

VSntchr said:
Mr. Yahoo forgetting to turn on data for the second session in a row now.
I had my pairs update overnight but back in stall mode. Anyone else affected?

Working on this end... and it was working yesterday as well.

This like appears to be working as well.

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BHP.AX

VSntchr · 17 May 2016

skc said:
Working on this end... and it was working yesterday as well.

This like appears to be working as well.

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BHP.AX

Thanks mate, I am back on now. Wonder why mine was off!?

SilverRanger · 17 May 2016

VSntchr said:
Thanks mate, I am back on now. Wonder why mine was off!?

Now that PTF is in new owner's hands, you may try testing their customer service, see if they can send you a SQL script to manually update the prices, that will be useful when Mr Yahoo really gone down

VSntchr · 17 May 2016

SilverRanger said:
Now that PTF is in new owner's hands, you may try testing their customer service, see if they can send you a SQL script to manually update the prices, that will be useful when Mr Yahoo really gone down

Good point on the script. Although, I am pretty sure that they have retained the same service staff..it's just a freelancer type setup with a guy named Aman I think

VSntchr · 18 May 2016

Back in "pending" mode for all pairs
Have emailed admin to see what they can do for me.

VSntchr · 18 May 2016

VSntchr said:
Back in "pending" mode for all pairs
Have emailed admin to see what they can do for me.

This is from the error file (which is now 170mb!!!)

System.FormatException: Input string was not in a correct format.
at System.Number.StringToNumber(String str, NumberStyles options, NumberBuffer& number, NumberFormatInfo info, Boolean parseDecimal)
at System.Number.ParseDecimal(String value, NumberStyles options, NumberFormatInfo numfmt)
at System.Convert.ToDecimal(String value)
at PairTradeFinder.dataGrabber.GetStockItem(String code, Int64 portfolio)

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