ASX 200 Discussion

Today:
Literally all goldies and uranium in the red corner.

finicky said:

Today:
Literally all goldies and uranium in the red corner.

The Match Out: Stocks hit as Trump ramps up tariffs - Market Matters

The Match Out: Stocks hit as Trump ramps up tariffs Market Matters - ASX buy recommendations

marketmatters.com.au

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Yeap i know looking at the red on my portfolio..
Why would gold and uranium be seriously down today?
Trump is not going to prefer imports from Russia or China ...

Market Matters match out report

"Between copper, pharmaceutical and country-specific tariffs sprayed across the globe by U.S President Donald Trump overnight, there was plenty on the macro front for the local bourse to digest today. Despite pockets of volatility in copper names, it was a relatively calm session with the index more or less in line with the strong U.S session last night, shrugging off tariff concerns. Oft has been the case in recent weeks, the index couldn’t survive for long above the 8600 level, testing the waters around midday but ultimately failing to break out as local traders adopt a wait-and see approach to see what comes out of the Whitehouse next."

"Technology stocks were surprisingly weaker despite global tech strength after chipmaker Nvidia surged to an all-time high overnight, peaking over $4 trillion market capitalisation at one point – Xero (XRO) -0.71%, NextDC (NXT) -1.09%, and Megaport (MP1) -2.06% were all lower."

ASX 200 once again knocked its head on the 8600 level today, with a strong open sold into as US Futures tracked lower during our time zone after news emerged of a potential 35% tariff on imports from Canada to the US. There were some fireworks in pockets of the resources sector today, with Rare Earth miners buoyed by the US Government taking an equity stake in a US operator, highlighting the importance they place on securing supply outside of China.

• The ASX200 fell -9pts/-0.11% closing at 8580.
• Materials (+1.82%) the only sector to trade higher today
• Property (-1.51%), IT (-1.06%) and Consumer Staples (-0.67%) dragged.
• Rare earths companies rocketed today after news the Pentagon had taken a $US400 million stake in U.S company MP Materials to accelerate American supply chain independence for critical minerals – Iluka (ILU) +22.86% and Lynas (LYC) +16.65% stormed higher.
• Both stocks have reasonable short positions outstanding, and this is the sort of news flow that will get shorts covering (buying back) stock.
• Broader commodities enjoyed a strong day with iron ore higher overnight and up +4.3% this week.
• This is the third weekly gain for Iron Ore on speculation Beijing may aid the struggling property sector.
• Reports are that a possible high-level meeting next week may focus on addressing industrial overcapacity.

WEEKLY best and worst stocks

Market Matters weekly wrap

The ASX200 slipped 0.3% last week after dancing around the psychological 8600 level almost daily. While the index traded in a tight range, it was a very different story on the stock and sector level, with utilities surging +3.4% while real estate fell -3.2%, two theoretically rate-sensitive sectors moving in opposite directions. However, most of the action unfolded in the resources with a strong advance by iron ore in the back end of the week, helping heavyweight BHP Group (BHP) bounce over $2 to test its March high.

By the close on Friday, the winners and losers enclosure showed ongoing stock/sector rotation. Nowhere was it more evident than within the Materials Sector, where the rare earths and lithium names boomed, ably supported by the heavyweight iron ore miners. In contrast, the gold and copper names endured another week to remember. Outside of some significant moves on company news, the local uranium names again struggled while their US peers tested new all-time highs.

Winners: Iluka (ILU) +29%, Lynas (LYC) +16.9%, Mineral Res (MIN) +10.1%, Helia Group (HLI) +9.9%, Origin Energy (ORG) +8.6%, IPH Ltd (IPH) +7.9%, Web Travel (WEB) +7.9%, IGO Ltd (IGO) +8%, Liontown (LTR) +7.3%, Eagers (APE) +5.7%, and Orica (ORI) +5.5%.

Losers: Lifestyle Communities (LIC) -35.1%, Boss Energy (BOE) -14.7%, HMC Capital (HMC) -14.2%, Northern Star (NST) -11.6%, Paladin (PDN) -10.4%, Capstone Copper (CSC) -9%, DigiCo (DGT) -8.6%, Reece (REH) -7.5%, IDP Education (IEL) -7.3%, and Mirvac (MGR) -4.4%.

On the economic and geopolitical front, the markets’ focus has moved back towards tariffs, while the RBA and China also threw some left-field news into the mix:

On Monday, President Trump threatened a 10% tax on “any country aligning itself with the anti-American policies of BRICS” as the week’s geopolitical fireworks commenced.
The RBA surprised the market on Tuesday by leaving interest rates unchanged, but equities shrugged off the news, still expecting at least two easing moves later in the year.
President Trump’s promise of a 50% copper tariff propelled industrial metal to new all-time highs in the US on Tuesday night, but it drifted lower on the LME, dragging ASX names down.
The healthcare sector struggled towards the end of the week as President Trump threatened 200% tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals in the future.
On Thursday, Chinese real estate stocks surged ~11% with further stimulus out of Beijing expected, sending iron ore and respective ASX miners higher.
On Friday, rare earth stocks soared after the US Government took an equity stake in a US operator. We ponder if uranium will be next.

Energy & Resources led the charge today with BHP back knocking on the door of $40, and is now up more than 8% in FY26 relative to Comm Bank (CBA) which has fallen ~3%. There is still a huge void of relative performance to address, however when we look through the top 10 performers for July so far, six are Materials stocks with an average gain of ~17%. The sectors that led the strength in FY25, namely Financials and Tech are down year to date; we think this is a trend that has legs given how beaten up some of the sector constituents became. If’s not often you can buy BHP on less than half the multiple of CBA and twice the yield! With resources up and banks down today, it was a muted session at the index level, which was not a bad effort really considering weakness in US Futures on the back of tariff news over the weekend.

• The ASX200 fell -9pts/-0.11% closing at 8570.
• Energy (+0.54%) Materials (+0.53%) and Communication Services (+0.3%) kept the local index afloat.
• Industrials (-0.57%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.48%) & Utilities (-0.46%) dragged.
• BHP Group (BHP) +0.94% traded within 2c of $40 marking a 3-month high for the ASX’s 2nd largest company.
• Uranium & Lithium stocks had a good session with Deep Yellow (DYL) +4.02% , Paladin (PDN) +2.98%, Pilbara (PLS) +6.45% and Liontown (LTR) +3.09%

"A new all-time closing high for the ASX today, with the index pushing comfortably above 8600 driven by broad based buying with 75% of the main board closing higher – only one sector failed the make gains.

• The ASX200 rallied +59pts/+0.70% closing at 8630.
• IT (+2.16%), Healthcare (+2.04%) and Communications (+1.18%) traded higher.
• Materials (-0.28%) the only sector that fell, while the retailers underperformed.
• China growth data was stronger than expected today at 5.2%, with strong export data outside of the US the key driver.
• Local consumer confidence data was also solid in July, signaling a more positive outlook among households, according to Westpac’s gauge this morning.
• The RBA wants merchants to remove surcharging on credit and debit card payments.
• They’re also proposing to lower the cap on interchange fees paid by business and require card networks to publish their fees to improve transparency and competition. A win for consumers + more transparency is a good thing."

"The ASX had its worst day since 5th May today, which implies we’ve had a pretty good run in stocks despite ongoing trade uncertainty. The market was hit on the open, with all sectors trading in the red before recent trends emerged; banks experiencing ongoing selling while resources bounced from their intra-day nadir.

• The ASX200 fell –68pts/-0.79% closing at 8561.
• Tech (+0.85%), Energy (+0.1%) and Communications (-0.15%) relative outperformers.
• Financials (-1.36%), Materials (-1.16%) and Utilities (–0.84%) weighed.
• Uranium stocks were solid keying off good moves in the US overnight, Paladin (PDN) +3.25%, Boss energy (BOE) +3.26% and Deep Yellow (DYL) +4.25%.
• Drone Shield (DRO) +3.76% was up ~10% at its best punching through $4, before tapering off into the close.
• Rare earths stocks were up again after Apple inked a $500 million deal with MP Materials overnight, securing rare earths materials to manufacture Apple products in the US.
• Iluka Resources (ILU) +4.27%, IperionX (IPX) +4.04% and Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) +4.88% all enjoyed strong moves."

finicky said:

The Match Out: ASX down, weakest session since early May - Market Matters

The Match Out: ASX down, weakest session since early May Market Matters - ASX buy recommendations

marketmatters.com.au

"The ASX had its worst day since 5th May today, which implies we’ve had a pretty good run in stocks despite ongoing trade uncertainty. The market was hit on the open, with all sectors trading in the red before recent trends emerged; banks experiencing ongoing selling while resources bounced from their intra-day nadir.

• The ASX200 fell –68pts/-0.79% closing at 8561.
• Tech (+0.85%), Energy (+0.1%) and Communications (-0.15%) relative outperformers.
• Financials (-1.36%), Materials (-1.16%) and Utilities (–0.84%) weighed.
• Uranium stocks were solid keying off good moves in the US overnight, Paladin (PDN) +3.25%, Boss energy (BOE) +3.26% and Deep Yellow (DYL) +4.25%.
• Drone Shield (DRO) +3.76% was up ~10% at its best punching through $4, before tapering off into the close.
• Rare earths stocks were up again after Apple inked a $500 million deal with MP Materials overnight, securing rare earths materials to manufacture Apple products in the US.
• Iluka Resources (ILU) +4.27%, IperionX (IPX) +4.04% and Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) +4.88% all enjoyed strong moves."

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I Can't Complain on many fronts----
I have been in Hospital all day and Survived the Ordeal
but FWIW
we got 3 out of the Top 6 Yesterday and
-----------4 out of the Top 7 today

What can I say?
"Sometimes you can just get Lucky"

"A positive open this morning, but the buyers really kicked into gear following softer employment data out at 11.30am which opens the door for a rate cut at the next meeting, they should have cut last week! Rate sensitive sectors faired best, though the love was broadly spread with 80% of the main board ending higher.

• The ASX200 up +77pts/+0.90% closing at 8639.
• Industrials (+1.43%), Financials (+1.33%) and Real Estate (+1.31%) the best on a strong day.
• Materials (+0.17%), Communications (+0.18%) & Consumer Staples (0.24%) stronger but lagged.
• June employment data saw just +2,000 jobs added, well below the 20,000 expected, pointing to a sharp slowdown in the jobs market.
• The unemployment rate jumped to 4.3% versus forecasts of 4.1%. Markets raised the odds of an RBA rate cut on August 12 to 94%, up from 90% before the release.
• Trump announced plans to impose blanket tariffs of 10–15% on over 150 countries unless trade deals are renegotiated by August 1. Our friends in Indonesia will feel duded having just agreed to 19%!
• Property stocks were strong on the increased August rate cut expectations with Mirvac (MGR) +3.23%, Centuria Capital (CNI) +2.3%, Scentre Group (SCG) +1.9% and Charter Hall (CHC) 1.89% leading the way."

"Bang! The ASX broke out of its recent tight trading range today, trading above 8700 for the first time, buoyed by coordinated buying across the material and healthcare sectors, with technology also having a good crack. Softer employment data yesterday brings into play 3 rate cuts this side of Christmas, which is a bullish catalyst, however, today looked more momentum driven, with a clean break above a 6-week trading range, dovetailing in with low school holiday volumes – a quick trip into the city this am and a strong market – a win/win. Days like this reinforce why we invest in equities, and remain passionate supporters of the market at MM. Our message has been to stay the course though significant volatility in recent months, and it’s days like this where patient investors are rewarded.

• The ASX200 up +118pts/+1.37% closing at 8757 – best day in months.
• Healthcare (+2.47%), Materials (+2.05%) and IT (+1.50%) the best on a strong day.
• Energy (+0.46%) lagged, Communications (+0.79%) & Utilities (+0.80%) were higher, though they underperformed."

Top and bottom ASX200 Stock performers for the now concluded WEEK

Ausbiz Close of Business:

"The local market had its biggest daily rise since US President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs in early April, thanks to market leader BHP and a strong tailwind from Wall Street.

The S&P/ASX200 hit its third record high this week to rise 1.4% to 8757.20 points, breaching 8700 points for the first time. Over the week, the index rose 2.1%.

All 11 sectors ended in the green led by the healthcare sector. CSL jumped 3.6% as UBS reinforced a buy recommendation on the biotech giant. Mesoblast rocketed 34.6% on strong sales of its cell therapy, Ryoncil, which became commercially available in March.

BHP rose 3% after reporting a record full year iron ore and copper production. However, it also flagged possible delays and cost increases at its giant potash project in Canada. Rio Tinto rose 1.8%

Fletcher Building rose 3% despite reporting volumes steadily declining across categories after peaking in 2022. CEO Andrew Reding said he expects volumes to not have a meaningful recovery before FY 2027.

Tonight, we get the US housing starts and building permits data."

My bold:
"We’ve written about sector rotation @Dona Ferentes a lot in recent notes and today was another clear example of the theme playing out, with banks underperforming resources by a significant ~2.5%. News that Warren Buffett was selling down bank holdings was sighted as a catalyst, and it probably played a part. However, as we wrote last week, it’s not often you can buy BHP on less than half the multiple and twice the yield of CBA! It certainly makes sense to us that some rotation is playing out, and when such trends have become so entrenched as they were during FY25, it will take more than a few weeks to evolve. We remain of the view that resources will continue their outperformance.

• The ASX200 fell -88pts/-1.02% closing at 8668.
• Energy (+1.19%) and Materials (+0.32%) were the only sectors higher.
• Financials (-2.26%), Consumer Discretionary (-1.22%) and Healthcare (-0.92%) were hit hard.
• The selling amongst the financials today saw the majority of Fridays positive move unwind, which is often how breakouts evolve i.e. a market breaks out aggressively before re-testing the resistance level that gave way. The breakout level was basically today’s low, so the next 24 hours in markets are quite important.
• A re-test and hold above the 8650 level will be very bullish, while a failure here will give the bears something to chew on."

wow, did Market Matters mention me. I'm flattered. I'm blushing. Am I an influencer? Or even a finfluencer?

I've let them know about you

finicky said:

I've let them know about you

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I think you've done enough.

If you are "cut and pasting", a practice you seem to have elevated to an artform, do not doctor the text.