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ASX 200 Discussion

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T'day from Market Matters

Market Matters | Leading Australian Stock Market Views And Advice

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/report/the-match-out-asx-dips-then-bounces-as-trump-delays-u-s-involvement-in-the-middle-east/

"It was a mixed day on the ASX today with half the main board higher/lower with the banks and materials sectors doing some damage early but the buy the dip mentality well and truly in play as we saw a significant grind higher through the session amounting to a +43pt move from the low of the day to the close. Easing tensions in the Middle East triggered flows out of safe-haven gold and the Big Four banks after Donald Trump said he would make a decision on U.S forces joining the assault on Iran in the next two weeks with negotiations for a peace deal still on the table, so long as terms around halting uranium enrichment and nuclear production can be met. For now, fears of U.S involvement as soon as this weekend have been eased, though nothing can be ruled out as the situation continues to unfold rapidly.

  • The ASX200 fell -18pts/-0.21% closing at 8505.
  • Utilities (+0.74%), Industrials (+0.62%) and Healthcare (+0.57%) enjoyed decent moves.
  • Consumer Staples (-0.87%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.63%) and Financials (-0.6%) dragged.
  • The Big Four banks were all lower with Commonwealth Bank (CBA) -0.18%, National Australia Bank (NAB) -0.54%, Westpac (WBC) -1.13%, and ANZ Bank (ANZ) -2.54% pulling the ASX down -30pts early but recovering ~17pts of that combined through the session."

 
CSL , what can I say? fighting the negativity , to be up
 
Today from Market Matters

Market Matters | Leading Australian Stock Market Views And Advice

Get the latest Australian stock market views from top investors with real money in the markets. ASX investment advice and share recommendations. Find out more.
marketmatters.com.au
/report/the-match-out-stocks-experience-only-mild-reaction-to-us-strikes-on-iran/

We were the first major market to absorb the weekend’s strikes on Iran, and while stocks fell, it was far from aggressive, with the ASX trading down ~80pts at the lows before the dip buyers emerged, pushing the index up ~50pts from the morning nadir. Oil was up ~5% early on but fell away throughout the day, trading up ~1% around our close, Gold fell on $US strength, ditto for the AUD (-0.7% to 64.07c) while US Futures traded in a tight range, only down ~0.3%.

  • The ASX200 fell -30pts/-0.36% closing at 8474.
  • Financials (+0.35%), Energy (+0.13%) and Utilities (+0.03%) traded higher.
  • Industrials (-1.40%), Materials (-1.32%) and Staples (-0.97%) dragged.

 
Market Matters afternoon report

Market Matters | Leading Australian Stock Market Views And Advice

Get the latest Australian stock market views from top investors with real money in the markets. ASX investment advice and share recommendations. Find out more.
marketmatters.com.au
/report/the-match-out-asx-rallies-on-ceasefire-tech-resources-ipos-its-all-back-on/

"A strong rebound for the ASX following news of a ceasefire overnight, though it seems missiles continued to fly today, and while it knocked the ASX off its morning high, the concern was short lived. After 5 sessions of weakness which saw the ASX pull back by less than 2%, one good day saw the market back within 1% of the all-time high as both the resources and the banks did well, supported by a good move in the Tech stocks.

  • The ASX200 +80pts/+0.95% closing at 8574.
  • Materials (+1.98%), Financials (+1.89%) & Technology (+1.09%) led the line.
  • Energy (-3.89%) & Utilities (-1.99%) the only sectors that fell.
  • The heavyweight miners rose on the back of easing geopolitical tensions seeing the likes of BHP Group (BHP) +2.36% and Fortescue (FMG) +4.75% higher."

 
Today from Market Matters

"The market held on to yesterdays rally today, finishing flat, as strength continued in the banks while the miners lagged as we approach the EOFY i.e. the trends that have persisted in FY25 are extending, however, what comes in FY26 is now firmly on our radar. While it’s hard to see anyone selling CBA before the 30th June and wearing a big tax bill, CBA’s +50% gain this year (relative to its ~4% earnings growth) pushing it up to a ~12% index weight in the ASX 200 is simply extraordinary. They say trees don’t grow to the sky, but CBA is certainly having a good crack, pushing its valuation to ~29x and yield down to 2.5%, closing today at a new record of $191.40!

  • The ASX200 added +3pts/+0.04% closing at 8559
  • Financials (+1.15%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.22%) and Utilities (+0.15%) traded higher.
  • Materials (-1.27%), Energy (-0.81%) and Communications (-0.60%) dragged."

 
Today from Market Matters

A very quiet session for Aussie stocks today, though the recent trend continued with buying of weakness, although the dip was only small this morning. Xero (XRO) came back online post cap raise, down ~9% early but saw strong buying during the session to recover 50% of its loses.

  • The ASX200 fell -8pts/-0.10% closing at 8550
  • Healthcare (+0.44%), Materials (+0.16%) and Energy (+0.13%) traded higher.
  • IT (-2.05%), Property (-0.71%) and Industrials (-0.39%) fell.
  • Westpac is the latest bank to bring forward their call for a rate cut, moving from August to July, inline with CBA’s call yesterday.

 
Even on a quiet day the stockbrokers are still doing all right.
 
Wow, BHP and RIO made it into the top 10 today.
BHP will do me for my copper investment. Are the constituent companies of WIRE better than BHP's franked dividends and increasing copper production outlook?
Reece smashed. I was coincidentally looking at it today in response to a Claude Walker article on three small cap stocks that might get whacked in EOFY CGT related selling and so offer value. I think the other two were IPG and PWH. I didn't think the REH metrics justified the price.

Market Matters arvo report

Market Matters | Leading Australian Stock Market Views And Advice

Get the latest Australian stock market views from top investors with real money in the markets. ASX investment advice and share recommendations. Find out more.
marketmatters.com.au
/report/the-match-out-asx-fades-through-the-day-as-commodities-rip-banks-stall/

"The day kicked off with a promising +50pt open though it was short-lived as a steady rotation from the banks to resources swept through the market after a supposed resolution to US-China trade negotiations was reached, triggering a –90pt swing from start to finish as we closed at the low of the day. The tick up in commodities was wide-reaching as iron ore, lithium, uranium and base metal stocks soared, in stark contrast to the Big Four and a slew of property names which went ex-dividend prior to the end of financial year.

  • The ASX200 fell -36pts/-0.43% closing at 8514.
  • Materials (+2.27%), Tech (+0.55%) and Communications (+0.54%) on the receiving end of a clear sector rotation.
  • Financials (-1.51%), Healthcare (-1.41%) and Real Estate (-1.18%) weighed.
  • BHP Group (BHP) +3.9% rallied on a rebound in iron ore prices and broader US-China trade sentiment after Howard Lutnick ‘confirmed’ a deal was signed and sealed."

 
Market Matters afternoon report

Market Matters | Leading Australian Stock Market Views And Advice

Get the latest Australian stock market views from top investors with real money in the markets. ASX investment advice and share recommendations. Find out more.
marketmatters.com.au
/report/the-match-out-asx-finishes-fy25-up-9-98-jhx-rallies-on-takeover-approval/

"A solid final trading session for the financial year was underpinned by strength in the banks early after their U.S counterparts passed financial regulator stress testing with flying colours overnight, though it wasn’t to last with the move reversing through the session. Healthcare stocks were the winners with decent buying in CSL, though the broader rally couldn’t hold through to the close with the index dropping -18pts in post-session auction between 4:00-4:10pm as sellers flocked in last minute to square away tax positions.

  • The ASX200 rose +28pts/0.33% closing at 8542.
  • Healthcare (+1.58%), Industrials (+1%) and Consumer Discretionary (+0.97%) led the line.
  • Materials (-0.77%), Utilities (-0.28%) and Real Estate (-0.13%) dragged."
 
Today from Market Matters

A lacklustre first trading session of FY26 with the index trying to push higher early but faltering before the closing bell. All those itching to sell CBA can now do so without paying tax for a while prompting some re-allocation amongst the banks – ANZ the standout today up +2.5% while CBA fell by 1.2%. It was fairly quiet elsewhere.

  • The ASX200 ended flat -1pt/-0.01% closing at 8541.
  • Utilities (+0.92%), Real Estate (+0.75%) and Consumer Staples (+0.45%) in the winner’s circle.
  • Industrials (-0.60%), Communications (-0.26%) and Materials (-0.16%) underwhelmed.

 
Today from Market Matters

Market Matters | Leading Australian Stock Market Views And Advice

Get the latest Australian stock market views from top investors with real money in the markets. ASX investment advice and share recommendations. Find out more.
marketmatters.com.au
/report/the-match-out-asx-knocks-on-all-time-high-dominos-dusted/

Some volatility on the stock level hit today, with Dominos whacked as the new CEO resigns, Helius lost another big customer and fell ~20% while UBS scattered a couple of Tom Thumbs in the wealth/funds management sector, taking a more favorable stance – a topic we’ll look at tomorrow morning. By the close, the market was back testing 8600, some 80 points above the midday low, and the bullish vibe has now hit July!

The ASX200 rallied +56pts/+0.66% closing at 8597
Materials (+1.83%), Property (+1.77%) and Communications (+1.08%) led the line
IT (-0.73%)n was the only sector that fell.
Data @ 11.30am this morning showed retail sales rose +0.2% MoM in May, undershooting the consensus forecast for a 0.5% rise. Retail sales were only 3.3% higher than a year earlier.
There has been volatility in recent months due to severe weather in QLD in March, as well as the impact of Black Friday and seasonal sales events from November through to January. But beneath the volatility, the retail landscape remains weak. On a six-month annualised basis, the pace of increase in sales eased to 1.8% from 2.6% in April.
Weak retail sales are another data point that imply the RBA should be more aggressive on cutting rates – consumers are simply not opening their wallets!
Building approvals were also weaker than expected in May, up +3.2% MoM vs estimates for +4% – another data point for the RBA.

 
BHP made the top 10 again! (like on Friday)

Today from Market Matters

Market Matters | Leading Australian Stock Market Views And Advice

Get the latest Australian stock market views from top investors with real money in the markets. ASX investment advice and share recommendations. Find out more.
marketmatters.com.au
/report/the-march-out-asx-flat-though-plenty-of-fireworks-under-the-hood/

"The sector/stock divergence that we’ve been highlighting recently stepped up a notch today as BHP outperformed CBA by more than 7% while there was some big moves in some of the beaten down commodities in particular following positive trends overseas.

The ASX200 fell -2pts/-0.02% closing at 8595
Materials (+3.02%), Energy (+0.83%) and Healthcare (+0.60%) were clear winners.
Communications (-1.47%), Financials (-1.27%) and Consumer Discretionary (-1.08%) dragged.
A stack of broker moves across the desk today. Of note for us, HUB24 (HUB) downgraded at Jeffries, Paladin (PDN) upgraded at Jefferies ($9 PT) but cut to underweight at JP Morgan ($6 PT) & James Hardie (JHX) Cut to Accumulate at Morgans + a bunch more."


 
Northern Star bottom of the heap today, -8.65% on weaker than expected 4Q25 production and FY26 guidance.
Origin Energy jump is of note - a long standing Greg Canavan pick.
"British company Octopus Energy announced plans over the weekend to demerge its technology platform Kraken valued at ~GBP10 billion. Origin (ORG) +6.75% owns a 23% stake in Octopus and will receive Kraken stock as part of the move."

From Market Matters

The Match Out: ASX subdued ahead of a big week, with RBA decision & Tariff deadlines - Market Matters

The Match Out: ASX subdued ahead of a big week, with RBA decision & Tariff deadlines Market Matters - ASX buy recommendations
marketmatters.com.au

No trade in the US on Friday night (Independence Day), so a quiet session to kick things off locally ahead of some key data points this week. The RBA should cut rates tomorrow which would be their first back-to-back move in 6-years, while we await the tariff deadline in the U.S on Wednesday night.

The ASX200 fell -13pts/-0.16% closing at 8589.
Utilities (+3.52%), Healthcare (+0.92%) and Consumer Staples (+0.23%) in the winner’s circle.
Materials (-0.86%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.75%) and Property (-0.46%) dragged.

The RBA is set to deliver its first back-to-back interest-rates cuts in six years tomorrow, stepping up its easing cycle as inflation pressures cool. Most economists are now aligned with market pricing, which implies a 96% probability of a cut.

Oil prices fell overnight following the OPEC+ decision to unwind output cuts a year ahead of schedule, increasing supply by 548,000 barrels per day in August.

Copper was also under pressure after Trump injected fresh uncertainty into his trade agenda with a pledge to impose a 10% tariff on any country aligned with the BRICS bloc of nations, which includes Brazil, China, South Africa and India. The rate would apply in addition to any other tariffs.

 
Goldies bounced today
REITs hit by the surprise hold on interest rates.

The Match Out: ASX flat, the RBA will cut, just not today! - Market Matters

The Match Out: ASX flat, the RBA will cut, just not today! Market Matters - ASX buy recommendations
marketmatters.com.au

"Michelle Bullock and Co wrong footed the market today, holding rates unchanged at 3.85%, electing to wait for the next quarterly CPI data due out on the 30th July to ensure inflation is still tracking towards the midpoint of the RBA target (2.5%). Markets were pricing about a ~96% probability of a cut today, with all major bank economists forecasting a cash rate down to 3.60%, while only 5 of 32 economists predicted a hold.

It was a clear surprise with the AUD rallying (+0.70%) on the inaction, stocks fell, bond yields rose, however, moves were far from extreme given that it was a line ball call, with a split decision from the board 6-3. The essence of the rhetoric at the press conference was that rates will be cut, just not today. That limited the financial markets impact with stocks finishing little changed in the washup. Interest rate futures quickly priced out a certain three cuts this side of Christmas, now applying a 75% probability, but the clear takeaway remains, rates are going lower, the variable is when and by how much. The next RBA meeting happens on the 11-12 August.

  • The ASX200 rose +1pt/+0.02% closing at 8590.
  • Communications (+0.48%), Financials (+0.38%) and Consumer Discretionary (+0.37%) led the line today.
  • Staples (-1.44%), Utilities (-1.10%) and REIT’s (-0.55%) dragged.
  • Commonwealth Bank (CBA) + 0.8% had fallen in seven of the past eight sessions before edging higher today. Other banks also made gains.
  • Interest rate sensitive sectors felt most of the Hold Hit, Mirvac (MGR) -1.8%, Scentre (SCG) -1.3%, Dexus (DXS) -1.3%.

 
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