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ALD - Ampol Limited

Discussion in 'Stocks 0-H' started by GreatPig, Sep 2, 2005.

  1. piggybank

    piggybank

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  2. Ves

    Ves Beyond Good and Evil

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    Hmmm... I still don't think this is wildly expensive at these prices (at around 11-12x EBIT with fairly dependable earnings). I haven't added since my last post. Update today starting really confirm the investment thesis that McLovin first mentioned.

    EDIT: Net debt of $650m, a reduction of around $100m this year, also provides evidence of the cash generation abilities of the underlying business, despite being in the middle of a major transformation capital project!!!
     
  3. VSntchr

    VSntchr

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    Kaboom! 50% of the company on-sale. Lots of supply = the market has punished it down ~10% for the day.

    Although it may not be all bad, with the foreign holding gone there is potential for ASX50 index inclusion and the possibility for capital management has increased now that the release of franking credits becomes more appropriate. In a yield appreciative market this should bode well in the medium term for Caltex.

    Operationally, the company states that it's business as normal - with Chevron keeping the supply agreement in force.

    Had a read through the thread and saw a few first class ASF business analysts discussing this in 2013 - the chart shows it's been a rewarding exercise for you guys!
     
  4. skc

    skc Goldmember

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    50% of the company SOLD. Bookbuild was done over the weekend... the BIGGEST one in ASX history no less.

    I can never understand why a major shareholder's block trade has so much impact, especically when there are extenuating circumstances which are pretty well known. In this case, Chevon needs to hunker down in the low oil price environment... yet somehow there are enough lemmings out there to sell the stock in unison.

    I am surprised that it fell that much... I thought it would hold $35 given the benefits as you've flagged. Looking for a bounce trade over the next few sessions.
     
  5. notting

    notting

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    Starting to look like it wants to lead the charge!
    All this refining of cheap oil gonna be helping some.

     
  6. peter2

    peter2

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    CTX: An interesting chart right now, because there's a attractive setup for a longer term trader.

    Daily chart: First thing I do is draw a line across 31.00. It's a very clear resistance line. Then I notice the HL (higher low) formation. These two things make the chart interesting for me as a BO trader.

    The logical place for an iSL is below the HL. The size of the risk is (31.00 - 28.50 = 2.50) too large for a short term method. It's OK for a medium term TP using weekly charts though.

    Weekly chart: Huge price swing from 17 to 38 dominates the chart. Since then (~2.5yrs) price has been trading sideways. This corrective move looks about done (abc'ish down to 50% level), so the potential for another impulsive move up is there and we've got a low risk setup for a weekly trader. The old highs near 38 provide an acceptable RR.

    I'd need to have a fundamental catalyst to help the trade go higher (impulsively). I'm aware that Caltex has modified their business over the past two years and perhaps this is why the price has traded sideways (and nobody has posted in this thread for 2.5yrs also). I don't know if Caltex can grow their business or significantly improve their margin to boost their share price higher. It could be just another "value" business but not a "growth" one.

    The price chart is poised . . .
    ctx0405.PNG
     
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  7. bigdog

    bigdog Retired

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    The Motley Fool reports today
    https://www.fool.com.au/2018/05/15/leading-brokers-name-3-asx-shares-to-sell-today-8/

    Three that caught my eye are listed below. Here’s why they are tipped as sells:

    Caltex Australia Limited (ASX: CTX)

    According to a note out of Morgan Stanley, it has retained its underweight rating and $26.00 price target on the fuel supplier’s shares. The broker believes that investors ought to be cautious amid speculation that Puma Energy might be interested in acquiring the petrol stations owned by Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW). Its analysts suspect that it would be unlikely that Caltex would be contracted by Puma to supply its fuel, putting future earnings at risk. I think that Morgan Stanley makes a great point and would suggest investors approach Caltex with caution.
     
  8. greggles

    greggles I'll be back!

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    Caltex is definitely heading lower at a fairly rapid rate. As for the target price of $26, it hasn't seen that level since August 2014, and there doesn't appear to be any support there so it may in fact head lower than that if it does actually get down that far.

    Definitely one to stay out of for now until the big picture becomes clearer.

    big.chart-CTX.gif
     
  9. bigdog

    bigdog Retired

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    ASX announcement today
    26/11/2019 10:00:54 AM Receipt of Non-Binding Indicative Conditional Proposal (uploaded below)

    Share price up 11.9% at 11:26 am

    Caltex confirmed it had received an unsolicited, conditional, confidential, non-binding and indicative proposal from Canadian convenience store multinational Alimentation Couche-Tard to acquire all of its shares.

    The indicative cash offer price is $34.50 per share while the Caltex share price closed yesterday at $29.79 .

    upload_2019-11-26_11-26-20.png

    Don't hold

    101
     

    Attached Files:

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  10. bigdog

    bigdog Retired

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    On November 26 Caltex revealed that it had received an unsolicited, conditional, confidential, non-binding and indicative proposal from Alimentation Couche-Tard.

    Alimentation Couche-Tard offered to acquire Caltex by way of scheme of arrangement at an indicative cash price of $34.50 per share less any dividends.

    This morning Caltex announced that its board has concluded that the proposal undervalues the company and does not represent compelling value for Caltex’s shareholders.

    upload_2019-12-3_10-42-0.png


    Update on the Proposal from Alimentation Couche-Tard
    CALTEX AUSTRALIA LIMITED CTX 9:20 03-Dec-19

    245
    [​IMG]
     

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  11. Smurf1976

    Smurf1976

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    I see from media reports that the Australian Caltex service stations, all of them, are to be re-branded from Caltex to Ampol.

    Whilst the Ampol name will be very familiar to Australians over the age of ~40, it's an unfamiliar brand to the younger half of the population and to the not insignificant number of immigrants who've arrived in Australia since then.

    So I'm thinking that it's not a positive. Petrol is a commodity product certainly but the brand name must have some value surely? They're switching to what for probably half of potential customers is an unknown name so I can't see too much benefit from that. No choice though since Chevron has apparently decided to not renew the licence to use the Caltex name. :2twocents
     
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  12. galumay

    galumay learner

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    Hard to know how it will play out, seems likely the Caltex name will grace the Puma servos as Chevron has bought them. Not sure brand plays much part with fuel, convenience and price is probably the big driver. Long term savings for current Caltex in licence fees, but a big upfront cost for rebranding.

    The more sensible option would be for Chevron to continue to licence the Caltex name and retain the Puma name in Australia, they would keep licence fees, have no rebrand cost, and Caltex would also have no rebrand cost. Win win.
     
  13. qldfrog

    qldfrog

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    By pure system refining luck or bad luck, i sold today at the open with minimal loss.i agree that the name is not that important
     
  14. System

    System Administrator

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    On May 19th, 2020, Caltex Australia Limited (CTX) changed its name and ASX code to Ampol Limited (ALD).
     
  15. jbocker

    jbocker

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    Supply extra cheap fuel for a while will help with quick brand recognition.
    On history I remember Mobil stations and the scarce Golden Fleece. Crank handle start ups. But NO not horse and cart. When I started driving a carton of beer and a larger tank of petrol cost about the same, $20 and was all stocked up with a bit of change for parking..
     
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  16. sptrawler

    sptrawler

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    Those were the days, petrol 50c a gallon, beer 80c a jug and wages $22/week. :roflmao:
    Myself and a mate used to put $2 of fuel in the HG 253, take $2 for drinks and have a great night out in Kal (beer, women and fights the good old days in the wild west).:xyxthumbs
     
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  17. jbocker

    jbocker

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    You would have been baptised with Hannans Lager. I had a HK, it nearly ended up with a different colour for every panel, including the roof. The coppers loved pulling me over to have a chat.:D
     
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