Re: AFL TV RIGHTS - who really cares ?
You make a very good point Son of Baglimit concerning the popularity of Union. The expansion of League, AFL and Union is totally based on popularity and acceptance. TV coverage plays a huge part in this. Union is in the best position to "branch out" into new markets. The southern states as a whole do not embrace league the way northern states accept AFL. If the Perth Super 12 team is a success it could be the first nail in the coffin for League.
My prediction for the next 10 years.....the AFL doesn't want to eliminate any of the 16 existing teams. With the money provided from TV rights, clubs are now assured of survival. The catch being the AFL will do more "Sydney/South Melbourne" plays and move say Kangaroos to Canberra, Hawthorn to Tasmania and perhaps Melbourne to either Brisbane or Sydney as a second side. Union over the next 10 years will overtake League as an attraction. Nine and PBL should bask in the sun with current league ratings in NSW because it won't get any better than this. Ratings, viewers, followers and more importantly - "DOLLARS" will start slipping away. Waking up this morning I would rather be Andrew Demeitriou than Geoff Gallop.
Regardless of the code viewers and spectators like to see the best quality on offer. A code is only as strong as the quality of it's domestic competition. Ironically, people throw mud at the AFL for not being an international sport - yet that is precisely it's strength. Each week people watching get to see the likes of Carlton vs Collingwood, Adelaide v West Coast. Why wouldn't networks pay big dollars for it.
Soccer has seen the error of its ways and are trying to start over with A league. For years union was behind the 8 ball because they would get 60,000 to see the Wallabies v All Blacks yet only 900 would turn up the following week to see Randwick take on University. Since the Super 12 series - bang - off like a rocket. As for League it has become a victim of its own success with State of Origin. The concept has become so huge it is seen as more prestigious than the Premiership and even playing for Australia.
If codes were shares AFL would be your blue chip hold, union would be the specie you would like to have a few bob on and league would be a SELL. As for soccer - until soccer matters on the domestic market - they won't get the money or TV ratings.
As this is a stock market forum and not a sports forum I'll leave you with this viewpoint from a marketers perspective.
If you asked 4 children - that each played soccer, union, league and AFL what is their ultimate dream you might get the following answers respectively:
Playing for:
Manchester United
Wallabies
NSW
Essendon
As an advertising executive for a company dealing in Australia looking to spend $100,000 where do you think you will get the best bang for your buck.
Soccer? Premier league is thin on the ground in Aust. Wallabies - sure about 8 - 10 games a year is good (although some o/seas at 2:00am), NSW - only 3 games a year (with the 3rd downgraded if a whitewash) or Essendon - 22 games shown right around Australia primarily at primetime. In my opinion people worried about the share price of Seven and Ten this week and next week are perhaps being too short-sighted. And those at Nine who are feeling pretty smug should look over their shoulders.