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AFL - AF Legal Group

Here goes folks. Here is the start of those assay results coming in. Looks like Cardinia is going to firm as a 3km long open-pit shallow operation...very nice grades too! Hang in there, I think you'll be rewarded.




And some comments from Colonel Sanders..

 
BRR presentation out today, highlighting market cap of only $50oz which ignores all other assets (also jorc not updated for recent results). Tom Sanders says Cardinia is derisking due to continuity, with high grade, sitting in soft oxide (free dig), weathered to 90mtrs, shallow pit operation. Cardinia now 3km long and possible extension of another km.. More results to come in on Tonto, Mertindale with 4 drill rigs in operation.

http://www.brr.com.au/event/44765
 
Some really good assay results out today, but the market doesn't care at the moment. Plenty of high grade, close to surface. Will put the resource well and truly over 1million oz IMO. Feasabilility study due Mid 2008.

Here are a few of those reported...


http://aspect.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20080610/pdf/00849483.pdf

Assay results are also pending from a program of aircore drilling aimed at extending the resource from 2km to 3km in the southern portion of the Cardinia gold system
 

Thought I would share The Speculators comments on this one today as a heap of drilling results are due, upgraded resource and Feasability study.

 
Some nice drill results out today, and a little buying coming back in. Looks like this one should stack up to a low cost, open pit, near surface, high grade operation. First mining planned for 2009 (late). Hope the gold price goes into orbit by then.


I won't bore you with it as there are 13 pages of drill results. I think this resource will firm up nicely in the next jorc release. They don't seem to have any trouble finding gold. 5 mills exist within a 70km radius that have spare capacity.

Hopefully this has seen the bottom now.
 
Could have a little to go grace but should be getting close. Probably relying on a POG steady climb and some stability in the overall markets. MC at $41m and MC to oz au $45, which isn't really cheap for a sub 1m oz au explorer, but doesn't factor in recent drilling results.

When's a resource upgrade due and for what deposit?
What do they have to do to get into production Capex wise?

kennas
 

MC of $41 mill (140 mill shares & options) at 30 cents.

Cash $10 mill (although will be less per quarterly).

MC of $31 mill excluding cash

Have
Gold resource 950 000 plus a new upgrade due

REO deposit (Cummins Range) with initial JORC of 38,400 tonne of REO (1.1 mill tonne of ore) and more with lower cut-off, including phosphate at 10% (most rare earth deposits also have phosphate just like Mt Weld) and uranium at a nice grade too.

Two free carried NI-PGM JV's.

So I guess to value just on gold is a little unfair.

Looking at gold though, plans are for
- mining late 2009 at 70 000 oz per annum first 2 years (open pit)
- 100 000 oz next 2 years
- underground as well after year 4 adding to production

I haven't seen any estimate of cost for capex and opex, only to say it will be low. Prefeasability was due July 08, so that will tell a few things.

There are plenty of options in relation to mills though. Resource upgrade was due June 08, but as the assays are only just rolling in, I guess it might be this qtr some time. It is running late.

So MC of $31 mill excluding cash. I'd put at least $10 mill on the REO/Phosphate/uranium deposit (this deposit is only partly drilled).

MC of $21 mill (attributing zero to other JV's) for 950 000oz is only $22/oz, with a big upgrade due very soon.

Looks low to me, especially if the mention of low cost, high grade, near surface, open pit mines are also shown in the prefeasability study due any day.
 

I think NAV has a little sping in its step now with the appointment of Gordon Galt as Director. Colonel Tom is good at finding the gold, and Gordon will be good on the development to mining next year. Just the man they need for the job I think. I think I'll stick with this one now on the strength of management.


 
I've just become aware of this as a rare earths play.

There's not a lot of reference to rare earths in this years announcements, so I assume they are not currently focused on progressing the Cummins Range project?
 
Anyone been watching NAV?

NAV are an unhedged gold producer in WA. Recently they have been ramping to to a 100,000 oz/yr production. June is to be their first full capacity month.

Anyhow, they have about 1.7M of of reserves, mostly low grade. All the infrastructure is in for their bronzewing project. They are anticipating operating costs costs of <$800/oz and are expected to be reduced over time.

So, considering in-the-money options only (there are a good few options out there.... not sure how to handle these in EV/oz estimates) I'm getting EV/oz of about $47. Current Mc is about $79M.

If we assume a POG of A$1350, then they are looking at profits of $55M based on operating cost of $800/oz which management say to be conservative.

Now, these guys are unhedged. With a high operating cost this does give some downside risk. Nonetheless, they seem to be pretty good value on the current numbers. There is also potential some upside on operations and exploration. Se their laters presentation.

So, my question is am I missing something here? These guys do seem pretty cheap to me. My guess is that the market may be waiting for them to get a few months of operation in before getting involved.
 
For those with an eye on the Rare Earths scene, NAV are due to spin off a REE based company, focused on developing the Cummins Range deposit, in early 2011. Those with a holding in NAV (at an undisclosed date, late 2010) will receive a capital return in the form of shares in the new company, aswell as a pro-rata entitlements offer to subscribe for additional new shares in the REE company.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20101022/pdf/31t9n0cnh3l8wk.pdf
 


Great week for NAV on gold front and also rare earth minerals - so good to see this one start to move
 
Just saw an ad on Bloomberg TV about this company, seems like they are quite keen on getting some investor attention
 
Looks like it may be getting a leg up ?
daily chart for 3 months from big charts.
 

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The Company's plans for 2011 were posted on their web site yesterday.
Looks as though they have decided to go alone on developing REO
by offering shares in a new company to existing Navigator holders.
Potentially it could be a brilliant move. It will be interesting to see how the prices shakes out on Monday.
 

Not sure if this come out, but is link to a good read about the NAV rare earth play... http://www.raremetalblog.com/2010/10/australia-becomes-a-two-speed-rare-metals-story.html. I'm in
 
Disappointing performance of SP since the Placement so a good buying opportunity now - see discussions on HotCopper
 
The company expects to issue an ASX announcement on the terms of the spin-off of the rare earth asset early next week - stay tuned.
 
I went in NAV this morning at 23c in a big way after allot of research over the weekend.

Its currently earning 6c a share from its gold alone. The rare earths that are going crazy in ARU and lyc have not even been rated by the market, once the rare earths are spun off you would expect them to get some market attention. So the more entitlements I get now the better.

Plenty of sellers at 24c, not sure who these people are but this company is worth allot more than 23c right now, and even more into the future.

Holding with a 12 month target of 72c plus RE spin off.
 
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