AEV - Avenira Limited

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Cripes, up 50% in two sessions. Nice.

I haven't been able to watch the trading as I'm in transit.

How's the volume depth been looking? I assume it's been chased a bit and sellers disappearing.

Looks to have broken that downtrend clearly, although depends how she finishes of course. Will be interesting to see how it handles the $1.40 ish wall.

 

[shag]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

a interesting day, a few on my panel have made signifiant uncharateristic moves up, the rest down.
a good day considering wall street and being monday and all.

 

[Speewha]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I haven't been able to watch the trading as I'm in transit.

How's the volume depth been looking? I assume it's been chased a bit and sellers disappearing.

Looks to have broken that downtrend clearly, although depends how she finishes of course. Will be interesting to see how it handles the $1.40 ish wall.

Hello Kennas,
Total Vol 2.1 million, seems to be all small sales. No big gaps showing in offered prices. At close buy offer range $1.42 to $1.345. Sell $1.430 to $1.510. This is for top ten all small parcels. Highest Buy Vol offerd 15,000, Highest sell Vol offered 16,500. As you say test comming.
Regards

 

[pan]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

MAK has made a significant move today, which may signal a bottom was found.

However, on the medium term chart, I can't back up until it gets to the blue circle, with a stop, or then going all in when it's around the green one..

Overall, market is still on a precipice (however you spell it).....

Broke the 1.40 resistence level today but came a long way back from the high after touching the other resistence at 1.60 ish.. thoughts on tomorrows outlook?

 

[Whiskers]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Broke the 1.40 resistence level today but came a long way back from the high after touching the other resistence at 1.60 ish.. thoughts on tomorrows outlook?

She took off a bit too quick for me to get organised, but I'll probably get a chance on the rebound... wave 2. It may come back to $1.00'ish.

I haven't done as much work on MAK as I have on some others that have been on my watch list for longer, but it does look like she's rearing to go again.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Broke the 1.40 resistence level today but came a long way back from the high after touching the other resistence at 1.60 ish.. thoughts on tomorrows outlook?

I had written some thoughts in my ASF Blog on what was going on, and have posted some more on what might happen from here. Those long tails on the past 3 days are pretty bearish, and we need $1.25ish to hold up, or it's back down. For an upward progression look for a higher high and low. Until then, the break up has no foundation/support.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Surprising comeback yesterday (to me) on a really bearish day. Anything with a white canle yesterday you'd have to take notice of.

$1.25 ish has held, for now, but lots of bearish news all over the globe could keep a lid on things. Europe is down about 6% so far this week, cripes.

I thought a triangle might appear on this pole but a flag is hanging there. Same principle with a pennant, the target on a break up is the length of the pole from the break, but just a probability.

But in this market, anything goes.

 

[blogs]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Kennas, with the 15 million oppies to be converted (and some obviosly drip fed into market) over the next few months, in combination with a very bearish market do you think this will continue the trend back down and maybe fill the gap at 70 odd?

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Kennas, with the 15 million oppies to be converted (and some obviosly drip fed into market) over the next few months, in combination with a very bearish market do you think this will continue the trend back down and maybe fill the gap at 70 odd?

Some people may convert the oppies and sell them for a stag profit, but I think a lot of people may have already done this. I converted mine some time ago. There may be some pressure on the stock, but might depend on general market conditions, RP outloook, as well as the upcoming JORCs for the Main Zone and Arrawarra (spelling). So, a few factors to influence it. Whatever the case, will be good for the company to have some more dollars in the bank, but with slight dilution to the stock. Maybe just a speed bump...

 

[blogs]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Some people may convert the oppies and sell them for a stag profit, but I think a lot of people may have already done this. I converted mine some time ago. There may be some pressure on the stock, but might depend on general market conditions, RP outloook, as well as the upcoming JORCs for the Main Zone and Arrawarra (spelling). So, a few factors to influence it. Whatever the case, will be good for the company to have some more dollars in the bank, but with slight dilution to the stock. Maybe just a speed bump...

You think a lot of peole have converted in August? 1st of August there was still 15 mill outstanding-Im guessing they will issue an update in Sep sometime? Volumes are trending back down to 200k odd a day, with 15 million odd to be converted it wouldnt take much for someone who needs to sell some to pay for conversion to really either cap the price or push it right back down? I would have thought this would be continuing up back over $2, after all there are a lot more boxes ticked now than 5 months ago, yet it still seems to be languishing. This indicates to me the bears are definately in contol and no one wants to risk capital on a speccy no matter how promising it may be?

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

You think a lot of peole have converted in August? 1st of August there was still 15 mill outstanding-Im guessing they will issue an update in Sep sometime? Volumes are trending back down to 200k odd a day, with 15 million odd to be converted it wouldnt take much for someone who needs to sell some to pay for conversion to really either cap the price or push it right back down? I would have thought this would be continuing up back over $2, after all there are a lot more boxes ticked now than 5 months ago, yet it still seems to be languishing. This indicates to me the bears are definately in contol and no one wants to risk capital on a speccy no matter how promising it may be?

Not sure exactly where you're coming from. The oppies are well in the money and if punters didn't convert them they would be brain dead, or totally broke with no credit. Unless the stock crumbles to back below 30c, they will all be excised and there'll be 15m more shares on issue. Stock has been punished for a few reasons IMO:

1. Stock market meltdown.
2. This is still spec.
3. Money shifting around the RP sector.
4. Profit taking.
5. Doubts on Opex.
6. Doubts on future RP prices.
7. People needed cash to pay off bad bets.
8. Essendon didn't perform well this year.
9. HC cab drivers bought at the peak with their superannuation and panic sold.
10. AD hasn't been on Boardroom radio enough.

If it gets to production, it will mean all's rosy and $1.25 is cheap.
If it doesn't get to production, back to 20c.

 

[blogs]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Not sure exactly where you're coming from. The oppies are well in the money and if punters didn't convert them they would be brain dead, or totally broke with no credit.

Im not questioning if they will be converted or not, what Im questioning is how many will have to be sold, or converted and then sold to fund the conversion of the amount the holder can afford to hold. i.e if you have 300,000 oppies have you got $90k sitting in cash to pay for conversion....or......are you going to have to sell say 72,000 oppies for around a $1 to pay for the conversion of the 230,000 odd you want to keep. Of the 15 million oppies I wonder how many holders have the combined $4.5 mill in cash to fund conversion without having to sell some and hence add to selling pressure...

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Im not questioning if they will be converted or not, what Im questioning is how many will have to be sold, or converted and then sold to fund the conversion of the amount the holder can afford to hold. i.e if you have 300,000 oppies have you got $90k sitting in cash to pay for conversion....or......are you going to have to sell say 72,000 oppies for around a $1 to pay for the conversion of the 230,000 odd you want to keep. Of the 15 million oppies I wonder how many holders have the combined $4.5 mill in cash to fund conversion without having to sell some and hence add to selling pressure...

Yes, but if you have held 500K oppies, and now don't have the money to convert them, you're a bit silly.

(not saying you Blogs, but not quite sure of your motivation for this question)

The people who have got themselves into this situation are small fry and static in the market IMO. HC

As I said before, will just be a blip if this is a longer term prospect.

If you're a short term trader, then play the chart action.

 

[blogs]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Yes, but if you have held 500K oppies, and now don't have the money to convert them, you're a bit silly.

(not saying you Blogs, but not quite sure of your motivation for this question)

The people who have got themselves into this situation are small fry and static in the market IMO. HC

As I said before, will just be a blip if this is a longer term prospect.

If you're a short term trader, then play the chart action.

Kennas-motivation for the question is simple curiosity and trying to think about all potential impacts. I would hazard to guess the majority of the large oppy holders purchased 6 months or more ago, being a pessimist a lot of peoples portfolios have been hit hard since then and 'perhaps' a lazy $90k might not be as readily available as what it might have been for a stock by all accounts was heralded to be $5 by now. We have all seen the result of someone wanting out in a low volume situation when it got pushed down to 80 cents odd. I hold a small portion (sold out majority recently at $1.60ish) and obviously want back in. but dont want to buy now only for it to retest 80 bruddy cents lol so thats why Im looking at all angles. Especially the latest announcementthat R.P is going to come down in price



http://fertilizerworks.com/html/market/TheMarket.pdf



“Phosphate prices are under pressure and the market has turned bearish. Prices of DAP in India have fallen by $100/tonne in the last week to $1,100/tonne CFR. India is the only active market for DAP with three further cargoes purchased this week, taking imported volumes for the year to almost 4m tonnes.
Elsewhere, demand is almost non-existent. Latin American interest has not resurfaced and European demand is subdued. The US domestic market is also weak."




Im very bullish on MAK long term, just trying to consider short term (i.e end of year) direction...?

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Yes, I see where you have are coming from. I have been a skeptic of mid to longer term RP because of the potential supply, but have been ridiculed here and elsewhere and even called a 'downramper', for saying the long term price may come off....LOL

MAK need to start shipping asap.

I still think the oppies thing will be a short term blip, and may even be a buying opp if the price comes off.

 

[blogs]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Thanks mate, appreciate you P.O.V
........................................................................................................

 

[blogs]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Ouch!! Shocking open, surely retesting the sub $1 cant be to far off the cards..? Think I'll just sit this one out a bit longer......

 

[blogs]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Again another shocker of a day-trending back down. Will almost certainly go sub $1, but the question is whether it will retest or break recent lows? Thoughts?

 

[blogs]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Well she is almost there, sub $1 any minute now currently $1.02....... Once she breaks $1 look out below.....

 

[blogs]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I cant believe Keenas and myself are the only twopeople here interested in MAK? Anyone else out there? Thoughts for short term price movement???