30 and starting to get serious about my future

[RegularGains]

First post. I bought CBA and ANZ just after the GFC in 2008 and made a good return on that money. Apart from that I don't have a lot of experience in picking stocks. I am thinking about how to reinvest the profits from my online business and I have a few questions and doubts.

1) Can historical returns give us an idea of future returns given the situation we are in? If I were to invest in an index fund for the ASX 200 I could expect to average 10% per year over a 10, 20, 30 year period, right? But with the US in trouble, Europe seeming like its declining and China's boom seeming to pop at any moment will the next 10-30 years be "normal" or were we lucky in the past 30 years? So, can I invest each year in an index fund and expect compounding to make me rich?

2) If I create a portfolio to buy and hold for 10 years, is it rational to think that I could beat the market (assuming historical market conditions, no random events etc)?

3) Isn't it better to leverage real estate (waiting until after the property correction we surely will have) than a stock portfolio as real estate would give me better leverage and therefore better returns? Why should I invest in stock and not real estate?

4) Is leveraging CFD's better than having a margin account with shares? I saw this written on Reddit and honestly the risk and cost of a margin account seems greater than the leverage I could get.

 

[burglar]

I sense that you want to move your profits onto someone else.
Else you would perhaps re-invest in your online business.
Alternatively you could learn about the stock market before you invest.

Start with the quote below, ...

“The stock market by its very nature is designed for you to lose money. The rallies and reactions within any trend ensure this process is at work constantly. It is created automatically. The market behaves this way because it has to! The weak have to perish so that the strong can survive. Professional traders are fully aware of the weaknesses in traders under stress and will capitalise on this at every opportunity.”

free download from “Master the Markets”, Tom Williams

Read more here:

 

[RegularGains]

I sense that you want to move your profits onto someone else.
Else you would perhaps re-invest in your online business.

I don't enjoy running an online business as it is very unstable and things change quickly = burnout.

I know trading is hard, has a high failure rate and is probably more unstable than online businesses BUT I want to transition to trading eMini futures full time as a source of income and capital to invest in long term stable investments such as a stock portfolio, real estate etc. Have I got it wrong? Basically I decided that if I had $2,000,000 in real estate or stocks I could expect 3% after inflation to live off, so that is my goal.

 

[burglar]

I don't enjoy running an online business as it is very unstable and things change quickly = burnout.

I know trading is hard, has a high failure rate and is probably more unstable than online businesses BUT I want to transition to trading eMini futures full time as a source of income and capital to invest in long term stable investments such as a stock portfolio, real estate etc. Have I got it wrong? Basically I decided that if I had $2,000,000 in real estate or stocks I could expect 3% after inflation to live off, so that is my goal.

Now I get where you're coming from.
Sorry if I was overly rude.

If you are young, get rich slowly.
Use of the greatest power in the universe ... compounding!

 

[RegularGains]

Compounding seems to barely give a return above inflation. Seems like the only way I can get rich is from an income source and not spending it, hoping that I continue to earn income. Luckily I think I can earn income from trading futures, small at first - even a profit in my first year would be great - and then in 3-5 years I hope I can earn mid $xxx,xxx to low x,xxx,xxx per year from trading.

Owning a business isn't for me. I will keep it going for the next year or two while I get my trading skills up to scratch.

After reading the thread called "shares or property?" I have decided to forget about property for the next 2-3 years so disregard that part of my post.