CTM - Centaurus Metals

[Miner]

CTM pierced through the roof today.
Two reasons
1. presentation and GOSS at DD conference and 181 Hay Street
2. @Sean K 'S investment cruise in Italy

 

[Sean K]

Looks like it might be crossing the 50dma shortly. Sign of life.

I am still wondering when the nickel sulphide narrative will overcome the cheap laterite crap from Indonesia, if ever.

Is it the bottom of the market?

 

[mullokintyre]

Is it the bottom of the market?

Nah.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

Nah.
Mick

This still looks even more interesting Mick.

 

[mullokintyre]

This still looks even more interesting Mick.

View attachment 184555

perhaps from a charting point of view.
But if we go back and read all the guff about the fundamentals of the stock over the past few months, I can't find anything to drive the stock upwards at least in the short to medium term.
The Capex delays, another cap raising likely, Nickel price fallen back to where it was 3 years ago, the oversupply driven by the Chinese backed environmentally friendly Indonesian mines , a slowing down in the growth of the demand drivers for Nickel - stainless steel batteries.
These are the things that will be hanging around its neck.
I have made my money out of CTM thanks to your original postings, not gunna push my luck.
But good luck to you.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

perhaps from a charting point of view.
But if we go back and read all the guff about the fundamentals of the stock over the past few months, I can't find anything to drive the stock upwards at least in the short to medium term.
The Capex delays, another cap raising likely, Nickel price fallen back to where it was 3 years ago, the oversupply driven by the Chinese backed environmentally friendly Indonesian mines , a slowing down in the growth of the demand drivers for Nickel - stainless steel batteries.
These are the things that will be hanging around its neck.
I have made my money out of CTM thanks to your original postings, not gunna push my luck.
But good luck to you.
Mick

Yes, I'm only looking at the chart and agree with all the rest. Something looks to have changed though if you believe the chart represents the sum of what the market is factoring in to the SP.

 

[Miner]

I suspect, the company has made an off take deal.
Their PFD is a lemon to my opinion.
If we recall Ravensthrope process design criteria was a lemon. Bhp sold to First quantum getting a jailfree card.
But where is Ravensthrorpe now?
So if my speculation comes true then short term price will go up to the peak and stay for some time, but med to long term the rotten smell will be felt.
DNH

 

[frugal.rock]

Leaky ?

 

[Sean K]

Leaky ?

View attachment 194732

Probably.

I can't imagine this getting a FID until the price of nickel improves somewhat. Indonesia and China are still controlling the market and don't want western miners anywhere near them.

I'm pretty sure their last FS was done on 18K Ni and it's currently at 16.4K. Must check that.

Longer term, once the nickel market strengthens, this will be great, but how long is a piece of string.

I heard RR spruiking this again last week. He must be way in the red on this now.

 

[Sean K]

I made a lot of money on paper on this in 2021 and then lost a lot of real paper in 2023. Been watching and wondering if the nickel sulphide story was just a story or whether it would ever escape the clutches of cheap Indonesian laterite crap that the Chinese have cornered.

Charts look like around 30c was as low as it goes and it's stabilised a bit.

Still not sure if the OEMs are happy to pay a premium for sulphide or if they will just continue to follow the money and not care about emissions going forward.

Another updated FS regarding engineering tweaks on the project out today. This is about the 10th FS they've produced and there'll probably be another one.

NPV on this of 1.15b and their MC is about 180m.

I just can't bring myself back to buying it again, I'm still suffering from the bark removal.

 

[Sean K]

This has been going sideways for a long time now building a very large base.

It's going to be in the toilet until the international nickel marks sort themselves out which isn't any time soon. Unless The Donald puts a tariff on any Ni out of China or demands steel be made from nickel sulphide. Hard to see how the situation in Indonesia turns around any time soon. China are even building them smelters to refine the laterite crap they have that's suppressing the price.

Add to that BHP saying they're going to sell off all the nickel spells bad trouble. BHP have a very long horizon for investment so if they're divesting nickel projects you'd have to think that there's no end in sight.

This is probably the reason why CTM have started to talk up their iron and copper gold projects in the Carajas that aren't really very exciting at all.

Rick Rule is still holding as he loves hated commodities in a counter cyclical cycle, but this is not just hated.

Chart is mildly interesting. Formed a floor across 35c and a ceiling across 40c. Currently knocking on the roof and through the moving averages.

Unless something magical happens in the nickel industry I can't see how it can go anywhere.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

@Sean K That chart is very tasty though.

gg

 

[Miner]

This has been going sideways for a long time now building a very large base.

It's going to be in the toilet until the international nickel marks sort themselves out which isn't any time soon. Unless The Donald puts a tariff on any Ni out of China or demands steel be made from nickel sulphide. Hard to see how the situation in Indonesia turns around any time soon. China are even building them smelters to refine the laterite crap they have that's suppressing the price.

Add to that BHP saying they're going to sell off all the nickel spells bad trouble. BHP have a very long horizon for investment so if they're divesting nickel projects you'd have to think that there's no end in sight.

This is probably the reason why CTM have started to talk up their iron and copper gold projects in the Carajas that aren't really very exciting at all.

Rick Rule is still holding as he loves hated commodities in a counter cyclical cycle, but this is not just hated.

Chart is mildly interesting. Formed a floor across 35c and a ceiling across 40c. Currently knocking on the roof and through the moving averages.

Unless something magical happens in the nickel industry I can't see how it can go anywhere.


View attachment 204515

Are u still holding CTM or any nickel?

 

[Sean K]

Are u still holding CTM or any nickel?

No, and no. Took a significant haircut on CTM last FY as you can tell by my avatar. I really can't see the nickel complex changing any time soon. Not until something significantly changes with Chinese and Russian influence in Indonesia.

 

[Sean K]

@Sean K That chart is very tasty though.

gg

Longer term perspective is that it's a bottom down there and has formed a very nice base. Holders at the moment must be long termers. Might be some bottom pickers who will sell into strength but that probably won't be too much volume.

Short term looks like it's trying to break up through 42c, but 55c is a bigger task. By that stage, maybe the easy money has been made if you're willing to get your fingers dirty.

Sulphide nickel will have its day, one day.

 

[Sean K]

While I liked the potential of the longer term 5 year chart for a floor and working it's way to a potential BO through 55c at some stage, the 1 year chart looks just as interesting. Rounded arse, breaking up through the short term ceiling at 42c looks tasty.

Not sure what's happened other than Rick Rule continuing to ramp them at all his conferences and every time he gets asked about metals that are hated and deposits that have $15-20b in-situ value offering very long life projects.

But nickel is hated for a very good reason. When does the world pay a premium for nickel sulphide and when does the world's supply stop coming from Indonesia, Philippines and Russia? A Trump tarif? But that'll only be a short term thing.

 

[Sean K]

I guess that breakout will be short lived.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

The thought occurred to me, too late to action, that perhaps there is more to this yapper than nickel. Anyways just a cwazee thought from left field.

gg

 

[Sean K]

The thought occurred to me, too late to action, that perhaps there is more to this yapper than nickel. Anyways just a cwazee thought from left field.

gg

Yeah, they went down the path of the iron and copper prospects when the arse fell out of the nickel market. Hedging their bets in case the Jaguar deposit was never going to be viable due to nickel prices.

A major miscalculation was the idea of end users willingness to pay a premium for sulphide nickel as opposed to the laterite which has never come to fruition. Maybe it will one day, but it seems most will just take the cheaper stuff. Especially when the major use of nickel is still in steel making and not just batteries. And, who's to say that batteries will always need nickel?

But, nickel certainly is in the toilet which is why RR likes it.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Yeah, they went down the path of the iron and copper prospects when the arse fell out of the nickel market. Hedging their bets in case the Jaguar deposit was never going to be viable due to nickel prices.

A major miscalculation was the idea of end users willingness to pay a premium for sulphide nickel as opposed to the laterite which has never come to fruition. Maybe it will one day, but it seems most will just take the cheaper stuff. Especially when the major use of nickel is still in steel making and not just batteries. And, who's to say that batteries will always need nickel?

But, nickel certainly is in the toilet which is why RR likes it.

View attachment 205880

View attachment 205881

Any RE's or is that in "Batteries?"?

gg