Market Crash 2025

[divs4ever]

Vix says a little different perhaps. Stabilising?
Daily and monthly.

View attachment 198715View attachment 198716

but isn't the real money playing zero-day options ?

maybe the VIX is an abandoned indicator ( like the 200 day moving average )

 

[Dona Ferentes]

So the Yanks are going gangbusters again....

What can go wrong ?



gg

So , what was the last half year about? A couple of nasty wars, torpid economies, a U.S president determined to make things up as we go along, a new govt here that seems bereft of ideas and energy.

Thankfully there's a stock market. BYE the dips.


.
In my name, took out dividends and added one small position. And SMSF is similar

 

[qldfrog]

So , what was the last half year about? A couple of nasty wars, torpid economies, a U.S president determined to make things up as we go along, a new govt here that seems bereft of ideas and energy.

Thankfully there's a stock market. BYE the dips.

View attachment 202794
.
In my name, took out dividends and added one small position. And SMSF is similar

So roughly flat on last 6 months?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

So roughly flat on last 6 months?

throwing off enough dividends , that's what I care about. ... Point to point performance is abstract, and meaning less and less as time passes.

 

[divs4ever]

So , what was the last half year about? A couple of nasty wars, torpid economies, a U.S president determined to make things up as we go along, a new govt here that seems bereft of ideas and energy.

Thankfully there's a stock market. BYE the dips.

View attachment 202794
.
In my name, took out dividends and added one small position. And SMSF is similar

mine were mangled by take-overs and the TRS one to start the second half in a similar manner

my major concern is my best-performed stocks are trading at ridiculous values in many classes , and are probably not sustainable , even No. 2 holding WES and No. 3 holding MQG look over-priced currently

have shuffled and tweaked as best i can ( to recycle the take-over proceeds )

but 'set and forget ' is almost a 'Game Of Thrones ' strategy in the current market

 

[divs4ever]

throwing off enough dividends , that's what I care about. ... Point to point performance is abstract, and meaning less and less as time passes.

a fair point , but some of my juicy positions were swallowed up by predators looking for cash-flow

i was chasing a 'livable income ' as well but achieving that is harder than it looks

 

[ShareSuccess]

mine were mangled by take-overs and the TRS one to start the second half in a similar manner

my major concern is my best-performed stocks are trading at ridiculous values in many classes , and are probably not sustainable , even No. 2 holding WES and No. 3 holding MQG look over-priced currently

have shuffled and tweaked as best i can ( to recycle the take-over proceeds )

but 'set and forget ' is almost a 'Game Of Thrones ' strategy in the current market

Take the Money & run ha ha....you can always buy back in when the market eventually reacts & comes back to a more reasonable valuation!

 

[Dona Ferentes]

i was chasing a 'livable income ' as well but achieving that is harder than it looks

for you, maybe.

 

[Knobby22]

I'm up a quite a bit for the year in my super fund. About 10% not counting my contributions (which adds another 4%).
It's good being able to switch to stable when required. Costly to do that if you run your own super.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I'm up a quite a bit for the year in my super fund. About 10% not counting my contributions (which adds another 4%).
It's good being able to switch to stable when required. Costly to do that if you run your own super.

now, why would you say that?

 

[Knobby22]

now, why would you say that?

Trading costs. Capital Costs.
Am I incorrect?

 

[rolly1]

Trading costs. Capital Costs.
Am I incorrect?

Not really my smsf I only pay say $10 on a 100k trade.

 

[mullokintyre]

From Bill Bonner




Mick

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Is this market is due for a correction if not a proper crash? I've been selling stocks in my trading account and increasing the cash component. I haven't made any great adjustments to my long term SMSF account but have been for some time now only buying if I sell a stock or not replacing. SMSF no real change in gross amount in stocks but PMGOLD, credit etf's and stable divie payers a major component. Just me I guess. Every one else seems gung ho.

gg

 

[ShareSuccess]

Question....Why is the Market Selling off defensive Stocks?

The Last time i looked at the ASX100 There wer'e 21 stocks in the Red!

Of These i would consider 14 in the Defensive space around 67%

Is this FOMO?....Are people Buying into a Rising Market that is starting to Cause a Bubble?

Are we Heading for a Big Correction or Crash?

My un-educated view is the Smart Money will,if they are not already doing start rotating their money into these Defensive Stocks & those who are Chasing this Runnaway Train are going to be left with the aftermath of what may be Coming?

I see Human Nature & greed starting to bubble to the Top!

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Question....Why is the Market Selling off defensive Stocks? The Last time i looked at the ASX100 There wer'e 21 stocks in the Red! Of These i would consider 14 in the Defensive space around 67% Is this FOMO?....Are people Buying into a Rising Market that is starting to Cause a Bubble? Are we Heading for a Big Correction or Crash? My un-educated view is the Smart Money will,if they are not already doing start rotating their money into these Defensive Stocks & those who are Chasing this Runnaway Train are going to be left with the aftermath of what may be Coming? I see Human Nature & greed starting to bubble to the Top!

I put that ^^ into AI and didn't come up with an answer.

 

[qldfrog]

i got a 6 figure paper gain today, one of the best day ever and this afternoon started reducing.
we are in the crazy exuberance phase IMHO
so should i move conservative, cash or even bonds..the horror or bear ETFs?
decision decision decison
october is coming, if not crash at least a slight correction would be expected very very soon..just a feeling so far

 

[divs4ever]

Question....Why is the Market Selling off defensive Stocks?

The Last time i looked at the ASX100 There wer'e 21 stocks in the Red!

Of These i would consider 14 in the Defensive space around 67%

Is this FOMO?....Are people Buying into a Rising Market that is starting to Cause a Bubble?

Are we Heading for a Big Correction or Crash?

My un-educated view is the Smart Money will,if they are not already doing start rotating their money into these Defensive Stocks & those who are Chasing this Runnaway Train are going to be left with the aftermath of what may be Coming?

I see Human Nature & greed starting to bubble to the Top!

depending on what YOU called 'defensive ...

my 'defensive choices ' are nowhere down enough to tempt me to add ( in general ) , not even BEAR

they might be lower but many aren't good value , maybe the conservative LICs might be a reasonable compromise , they smooth divs pay some franking and don't normally take outsized risks


now correction or crash after 2020 , some might suggest we have had a correction , without a broad-based recovery , but will a bigger crash still come ( in the next two years ) , some economies are worse than a joke , official data is often suspect

and pick a likely trigger for the collapse , including a second part to the yen carry-trade ( has that been fully unwound ?) there are plenty to chose from

one possibility is we are 'climbing a wall of worry ' , sure there is still the rare ' fair value stock ' , but many valuations are unrealistic ... but if the market is fixated on capital gains , valuations mean little to the current buyers ( look at the crypto-frenzy for validation of that )

 

[bettamania]

2 options

1. Use panic mode and switch your trading style

2. I am not making fun of everyone nor be littleing people but those who has never accept reality ( defeat /loss) would turn a trading into long term investment and someone over here has write a thesis to justify this action but I believe this is not a wise move.

Either one you choose that is your choice as with me I have prepared a view ingredients for my own recipe

 

[divs4ever]

2 options

1. Use panic mode and switch your trading style

2. I am not making fun of everyone nor be littleing people but those who has never accept reality ( defeat /loss) would turn a trading into long term investment and someone over here has write a thesis to justify this action but I believe this is not a wise move.

Either one you choose that is your choice as with me I have prepared a view ingredients for my own recipe

depending on the share ( and you have to choose carefully or be very lucky ) you can average down , and grind it out , and it might take for or 5 years to come out very nicely

i normally resist panic-mode , even in real-life situations

PS you would be amazed on how quickly a company can fold ( beware of over-optimistic presentations )