Zinc the metal for 2006

Starting a new thread on a metal that is way overdue for coverage on this forum, Zinc!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Here's my prefered stock exposure

TZN Terramin
I have done a valution for it as I can't find one from any of the brokers, if someone can tell me how to I will try and upload it, its in an Excel file

To give you an idea I think the stock will be worth $1.40 + once the Angas feasibility study comes out

YOUNG_TRADER said:

Starting a new thread on a metal that is way overdue for coverage on this forum, Zinc!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Here's my prefered stock exposure

TZN Terramin
I have done a valution for it as I can't find one from any of the brokers, if someone can tell me how to I will try and upload it, its in an Excel file

To give you an idea I think the stock will be worth $1.40 + once the Angas feasibility study comes out

Click to expand...

Hi comsec no forecasts EPS out for this atm, but do u think u can estimate forecast EPS for 2006, 2007 and 2008 based on your research u can share with us?

thx

MS

Is this thread about zinc or TZN?

If it is about zinc then I hope we are going to see some discussion on that topic. If it is about TZN then I'm not quite sure why this thread was created when there is already a TZN thread.

Seems to me it is about tzn.

happy with zinc setting new highs again, for a while it had me worried

clowboy said:

Seems to me it is about tzn.

happy with zinc setting new highs again, for a while it had me worried

Click to expand...

Yeah same

the recent price correction for zinc was scary, but fundamentally its stillstrong, when u look at LME supplies



thx

MS

http://www.miningweekly.co.za/min/news/today/?show=83131

Upbeat metals hover near new record highs
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Major base metals were holding close to new highs on Wednesday, with some profit-taking seen, although analysts said the industrial metals complex looks comfortable at current high levels.

Benchmark metal copper was trading at $5 115 a tonne by 10:40 GMT, up from Tuesday's London close of $5 105 on the London Metal Exchange (LME).

The metal, which is used in construction and electronics, hit a record high of $5 186 on Tuesday. Zinc, used in galvanising to protect steel from corrosion, hit a new record of $2 525 on Wednesday, up from $2,510.

In precious metals, silver hit a fresh 22-year peak of $10,59 an ounce, as speculators ploughed more money into the market after US regulators approved an exchange-traded fund.

"People sold copper yesterday at the highs, and but have been quick to buy back short positions and are looking to go long again this morning," one dealer said.

"We are seeing buying, not only from the speculators, but also from consumers. Fund buying is undoubtedly the main driver, but there is underlying demand from industry," he said.

Consumers have become more comfortable with copper at the previously unthinkable levels between $4 500 to $5 000, and price rises have been passed down through the chain, traders said.

But some sounded a warning note, as market sentiment has become more realistic after a month-long corrective phase halted what had become an almost vertical ascent in major metals in early-February.

"All in all, it is hard to feel too confident about copper's recent bout of strength and the move above $5 100 runs the risk of turning out to be a false break-out," William Adams, an analyst for BaseMetals.com, said in his Tuesday evening note.

With the tight global supply of zinc concentrate and strong demand for zinc-coated steel for construction, vehicles and household use, zinc prices have risen more than 30% since the end of last year.

LME zinc stocks fell another 3 000 t on Wednesday to exactly 300 000 t, the lowest since July 2001. At the end of last year stocks stood at 393 600 t.

Zinc's strong run has lifted it to a premium over aluminium for the first time in about 13 years, analysts said.

Aluminium, a lightweight metal used widely in consumer durables, traded at $2 498, against a previous close of $2 500. Earlier this year aluminium traded as high as $2 678, the highest for 17-1/2 years.

Zinc Stocks-

Ok I started a thread here yesterday and it has been deleted, please don't delete this thread, as we have one for Gold, Oil and Uranium we should have one for Zinc as it will be the base metal of 2006.

Stocks which should be covered by this thread,

AIM JML UCL TZN

I already have a comparative analysis for JML vs TZN am updating to include AIM and UCL, when I'm done, someone tell me how to upload the excel sheet as an inserted image or something, Cheers

Re: Zinc Stocks-

Also note, stocks like KZL PEM and ZFX have to a large extent run and are covered by any analysts so no need to re-cover them, rather can use some of the assumptions made on these stocks to assist in 'our' thoughts on the four stocks I listed

Re: Zinc Stocks-

The main reason why Zinc will be the standout metal for 2006 and probably into 2007 is due to the large deficits in supply, ie demand has been and will continue to outstrip supply thus causing the very low LME stock piles to drop even lower,


Zinc Rises to Record After Stockpiles Slump, Curbing Supply
March 22 (Bloomberg) -- Zinc rose to a record in London for a second consecutive day after stockpiles shrank, curbing supply of the metal used to protect steel from corrosion.

Inventory tracked by the London Metal Exchange fell 2,700 tons, or 0.9 percent, to 300,000 tons, the LME said today. Inventory has slumped 48 percent in the past year. Consumers may have to rely on stockpiles to fill a forecast production shortfall.

``Zinc stockpiles keep coming down,'' Andrew Silver, a trader at Natexis Commodity Markets in London, said in an interview. ``Consumers are still buying at high prices.''

Folks,

There were two Zinc threads going so I've merged the two.

Cheers

Ahh here's my lost thread, Wayne did you move the 2nd one I started as well?

I want it to be about Zinc Stocks, with some small commentary on Zinc, can't it be where the others are (ie where it was) with the Gold Stocks thread, Oil Stocks thread Uranium stocks, Solar stocks etc etc?

YT,

It gets a bit confusing if there are two current threads going. Most of the Zinc stocks have their own threads, or if there isn't a thread on a particular stock, you can open one.

But Zinc in general should be all in one place...Because it's currently very topical, if you know what I mean. Otherwise the analysis becomes divided, or one thread will whither and die anyway.

It's just to keep things tidy

Cheers

Fair enough, can you tell me how to upload an excel sheet on this msg so I can show my comparative valuations for JML vs TZN?

YT,

Just use the "manage attachements" button below the "reply to thread" screen.

Just like attaching an image.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/faq.php?faq=vb_read_and_post#faq_vb_attachment_explain

Did it work?

Here's an updated sheet I did before,


Comments,

JML: Is also reliant on Copper for its revenue, due to the fact that later on in 2006 we will see huge surpluses for Copper the price will not hold at current levels for too long. However may see a bidding war for Takeover by OXR and CSM, Project is fully funded, unhedged and construction is well underway, JML represents the lowest risk of the four, with good long term returns in store.

AIM: Project looks the goods, but requires huge levels of finance and may not be able to come on line until mid 2008, stock has also run strong from 7c - 14c

TZN: Angas is as they a done deal, it will come on line and funding required is only $35m, has Macquarie and Sempra in its stables so funding not an issue, Angas alone should underwrite a value of $1.35, Real blue sky comes from North African project which has an in ground value of $3.5b

UCLThe largest project by far, requiring the most funding by far and in Iran which makes it the riskiest by far!

http://today.reuters.com/business/n...BusinessNews&storyID=nL23748560&imageid=&cap=

UPDATE 4-Zinc and copper hit record highs, funds buying

By Martin Hayes

LONDON, March 23 (Reuters) - Investment fund buying re-emerged on the London Metal Exchange (LME) on Thursday, lifting copper and zinc to record highs.

Copper, the LME's benchmark metal, hit a new peak of $5,250, bolstered by supply worries and a mudslide at a major mine in Asia, while tin broke $8,000 to a 10-month high.

Zinc prices also hit a record of $2,585 a tonne on Thursday as warehouse stockpiles extended a decline that can only continue, analysts said.

Zinc, used mostly in galvanising to protect against corrosion, has climbed over 80 percent in the past year while LME stocks have dwindled to 297,375 tonnes, the lowest since July 1991, with more declines inevitable.

"Zinc's price performance this year is justified by the fundamentals. Essentially, this is because the market cannot be in anything other than a large deficit this year and it will be in a large deficit next year as well," Stephen Briggs, analyst at investment bank SGCIB, said.

On the LME, the world's largest non-ferrous exchange, zinc <MZN3> closed at $2,571 in the open-outcry session, up two percent from the Wednesday close of $2,520.

Given tight global supply of zinc concentrate and strong demand for zinc-coated steel for construction, vehicles and other uses, more metal will be taken out of stores.

At the end of last year LME stocks stood at 393,600 tonnes, while of the current total some 137,075 tonnes, or 46 percent, is registered is destined for removal.

"The market started to go into deficit later than the other base metals as the structure of the industry, which is more competitive, meant that cutbacks happened later," Briggs said.

Zinc's strong run has lifted it to a premium over aluminium for the first time in about 13 years.

Buying by investment funds -- the key drivers behind the commodity market boom -- points to more price gains.

Zinc where's it at? ? ?

$3,000 US/t you say?


Zinc where it headed? ? ? ? ?

$4,000 us/t by July 06


Are you crazy Young Trader? ? ? ? ?

I sure am!!!! Crazy about Zinc!

YOUNG_TRADER said:

Starting a new thread on a metal that is way overdue for coverage on this forum, Zinc!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Click to expand...

Hello, where have you been please carry on buying laughing all the way to the bank. I am so pleased that all of a sudden that Generation whatever have discovered Zinc. I always tried to keep it a secret but somehow the word must have got out.

YOUNG_TRADER said:

Zinc where's it at? ? ?

$3,000 US/t you say?


Zinc where it headed? ? ? ? ?

$4,000 us/t by July 06


Are you crazy Young Trader? ? ? ? ?

I sure am!!!! Crazy about Zinc!

Click to expand...

Do u know what, i think Zinc LME stocks will go down to 0 by Oct 2006

I know that in mid 2007 supply will exceed demand as forecast by many, however its too late!

In which case yes it will go to $4,000 us/t, but not only that, since its so low, it may turn into a huge bubble, looking at $10,000+ us/t which may last a few months before it crashes back to normal levels like maybe $4,000 us/t?

Time to put your house on zinc stocks u think? or wait a bit longer first and see if the LME supplies can reach closer to 0?

Just a thought

thx

MS