- Joined
- 21 November 2007
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I hope you are feeling better, i found keeping a journal and bouncing ideas in this forum as well as unshamelessly stealing some of the brains very valuable.I currently have only half my allotment to Gear at the moment avg price $28.48
Have sold in a ratio of 1:2 compared to Gear (overwrite) xjo Aug15 8100C @ 30
All other trades going forward will be documented and recorded on the day
Can you define a " decent close " for me , also can you give some insight how you have defined these probabilities .Outlook
8/7 67% chance we will not get a decent close below 7767 before the end of the month
8/7 60% chance 7702 is the low for the month
Oh and I forget to add this is not advice and is for entertainment purposes only
Hey Chipp good questions. Decent close would be about 25 to 30 points but may give that a bit more if I think it was an exhausted move to reach that point. I'll let you guys know if it is a cross for sure.Can you define a " decent close " for me , also can you give some insight how you have defined these probabilities .
Just curious on the process here
I note above you sold XJOFX9 , whats the strategy for this strike ? Is that just to collect premium ?
Reckon F1 and F2 90% probabilities now and thats as close to certain as i get , you have handled this well my friend . Kudos , i have started observing options and working on strategies for future . Weekly option probably be my weapon of choice , Thanks for the thread @rolly1 , i for one find it interesting to see methods like this . I also are on GEAR fwiw and will look at writing some AUG calls at some stage . Premiums lifted nicely last couple days with extra 60-90 p premium on offer depending on strike8/7 F1 67% chance we will not get a decent close below 7767 before the end of the month
8/7 F2 60% chance 7702 is the low for the month 11/7 now has moved to 99% chance it will be low of month
Hey Chipp thx for the kind words. So an update as to where we are at. So the current market move is the worst outcome you can get for the overwrite/ short syn straddle position. ( quick fast strong move up towards the sold calls. )Reckon F1 and F2 90% probabilities now and thats as close to certain as i get , you have handled this well my friend . Kudos , i have started observing options and working on strategies for future . Weekly option probably be my weapon of choice , Thanks for the thread @rolly1 , i for one find it interesting to see methods like this . I also are on GEAR fwiw and will look at writing some AUG calls at some stage . Premiums lifted nicely last couple days with extra 60-90 p premium on offer depending on strike
Yeah i think you went a bit early on the covered calls , thinking out loud here , i think i am writing these calls on a big up day where IV takes a jump and premiums move accordingly . Be great to have a chat one day in depth , exchange of ideas type thing , I am a decent direction trader re XJO and i think we could def feed of each other to build even more robust strategies . Anyway love your work .Hey Chipp thx for the kind words. So an update as to where we are at. So the current market move is the worst outcome you can get for the overwrite/ short syn straddle position. ( quick fast strong move up towards the sold calls. )
Gear up 5.16%
Short calls 2:1 down 2.59%
Closed short put up .25%
Nett 2.82%
XJO up 2.65% for the same 1 week period.
So as you can see although we have the worst possible scenario for this position it is still holding the gains with the market.
Vol is being bid on this up move which indicates peeps taking protection from this point here. I may look to cut some + deltas near the close.
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