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XAO Analysis Prediction

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My god guys if I'm going to lose all my money I at least want to enjoy the process, give me some good news!!!
 
ctp6360 said:
My god guys if I'm going to lose all my money I at least want to enjoy the process, give me some good news!!!
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The "sell" feature was designed to help prevent you losing all your money.

The key is in learning when to use it.

Cheers,
GP
 
ctp6360 said:
My god guys if I'm going to lose all my money I at least want to enjoy the process, give me some good news!!!
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The good news is there is usually a pullback, even in a dowtrend, so you can cut your losses there, the bad news is that if you don't use stops or have a plan it's of little use. If you're a long term buy and pray investor, it's time for praying...heheheh, just kidding. If it's any consolation I got stopped out of quite a few this week and last, so I've lost money too, this correction has some way to go imo....sell in May and go away.
 
Somehow I think think the 4800-4900 level is a touch too shallow a fall. I believe this last top was quite significant.

I am expecting this "correction????" to last much longer and fall much further than most pundits expect.
 
Closed exactly on my lower trend line today.

Monday will be interesting.

Cheers,
GP
 
Some interesting similarities between these two chart segments.

The XAO now, with today currently being back up around the high of yesterday:



The XAO in Oct 2005 as it bottomed out of the correction then:



Will history repeat? If so, a bit more downside to come, which will perhaps take it down to the 4800-4900 support area.

Cheers,
GP
 
Bit late now, but check out the oscillator divergence with the XJO before the correction. Looks like it was giving us plenty of warning.
 

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markrmau said:
Bit late now, but check out the oscillator divergence with the XJO before the correction.
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Actually I did notice that with the XAO before the correction started (even mentioned it in a message on another forum), but of course didn't act on the information .

Could have saved me a few bucks if I had.

Cheers,
GP
 
Starting to show signs of an uptrend again, but possibly constrained by the trend line above it as a resistance level.

The second chart shows another interesting point: for the gain since the Oct 2005 correction, the current correction dropped almost exactly to the 38.2% Fib level.

So is it really a new uptrend, or just some consolidation before heading on down towards 4600?

GP
 

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Does look like an uptrend occuring. This will only be sustained if the US sends us good news though. If not, then back to 4800 imo.

The market is still reasonably priced RIGHT NOW. No need to go too far!
 
It looks like the trend is broken? We might need to wait untill tomorrow to confirm it.

any chartist can tell us their point of view?
 

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Might we have something more ominous happening?

If so, target downside would be around the trend line at 4600 - or more into the 4500s.

Cheers,
GP
 

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GreatPig said:
Might we have something more ominous happening?

If so, target downside would be around the trend line at 4600 - or more into the 4500s.

Cheers,
GP
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Doesn't look good but I'm not sure if H&S patterns have such a high reliability rate, especially if they're at an angle like this, does volume correspond? The worry is that various trendlines, including the neckline of the H&S has been broken. Eitherway, well spotted and yet another sign that this is still going South for the time being. Will be good to watch the RSI for divergence again, in case we are to rally to the recent highs.
 
Thought I would bump this thread to provoke some opinions among the users of this site.

Plenty of brokers at the beginning of the year predicted 5500 on the all ords by the end of the year. Looking a little optimistic at this point in time.

What do you think? 4200 looks inevitable to me within the short-term.

I am interested to hear your thoughts.
 

I noticed lots of stupid triangles on the top of thread - why don't they use their own T/A thread to post them? If they renamed that thread - maybe this one needs to be called something else: XAO - dumb ass predictions or XAO - gut feelings

4200 does seem likely by the end of August early September - that's why my gut feeling says we will be around 4000 in late October.

Just noticed GreatPigs post from 2006 - I wonder if he is one of those freegans now - you know those people who get food out of bins.
 

We will get to 4200 tomorrow looking at what is happening tonight. And there will be no rally in the face of the employment figures tomorrow night for the US.

I don't really think those broker predictions are actual predictions. They simply take the average market preformance and pro rate it based on number of months left in the year...

Comsec issues these reports and I've never seen the end of year figure to be lower than the current.
 
Could be ugly today. Anyone wanna shed some light on the situation for a newbie like myself?
 
kid hustlr said:
Could be ugly today. Anyone wanna shed some light on the situation for a newbie like myself?
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I'm not a very experienced stock investor ... but it's just a market correction that is imo for the ASX probably an undeserved one. Could be a very strong buying opportunity, but not just yet, do your own research and wait for the mess overseas to unravel, whilst readying your trigger finger to shoot up on any stock you feel becomes a bargain, thats what I am doing.

I value Jim Rogers opinion highly - http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-rogers-commodities-consolidates-2011-5
 
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