And when you take out the traders who were trading with a mathematical disadvantage (IMO almost all traders are) but got "lucky" the figure is more like 1 in 10000.
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And when you take out the traders who were trading with a mathematical disadvantage (IMO almost all traders are) but got "lucky" the figure is more like 1 in 10000.
So here at ASF we have 14000 Members of which it is highly likely that only somewhere between 2 and 140 are consistently profitable.
1. Just interested
2. Part time investors
3. Full time investors
4. Investors who only sometimes trade
5. Part time traders in a small time way.
6. Traders learning the ropes.
7. Full time traders. Split into 3 groups;
a. Successful
b. Breaking even but living on savings.
c. Gradually going broke.
For the record I class myself as a mixture of 2 and 4. Maybe that is another group.
Sometimes doing it the hard way is the best way as you learn very fast from your mistakes and are never to make them again in the future.
Most people who do start out play it the safe path and then somewhere down the track it all goes wrong and they give up... I think the quicker you experience the bad side of trading, the more disciplined you set yourself to become successful. It's one thing to say "I will cut losses short, I will trade my plan, etc" but when your money is on the line, most beginners will never follow it, resulting is losses and then giving up.
I started in the deep end (options, due to the limited risk of buying calls and puts) which was not a good thing in the start... but having done some terrible mistakes and loosing hard earned cash, it has made me a much better trader and have been quite profitable since. Most of my calls are usually wrong these days, but being able to cut my losses quick and catch the big waves is what makes it all worth it.... good luck
Ah yes forgot about Garry Stone have never used the service but know some one that has and she has gone on to be is in the top 1% IMHO, good advice weird where were you in the late 90's when I started out?
BTW I rate Nick Radge the same or better for learning, (no ramp read on) every thing Nick does is transparent (keeps records) and I believe Garry Stone is the same. Its not important if its real trades or assumed entries and exits its the record to have to do your home work on that counts plus it shows market reality.
The records that some keep are profits only or the last great move they picked out of hundreds......
Nick I think his two books are a must read for anyone in the market 2nd one below would put most off as Brett talks about what it takes
http://books.google.com.au/books?id...arger&sig=1EdrqmQtGif38ACWN-UyK8a9LqU#PPP1,M1
http://books.google.com.au/books?id=GC5UAAAACAAJ&dq=inauthor:Brett+inauthor:N+inauthor:Steenbarger
Not the only one. I know they say it is hard to teach old dogs new tricks but I say if it aint broke don't fix it and it is working OK for me. But then, as I have said before, I'm not trying to be the richest man in the cemetary all I do is try and afford the way of life I desire without too much risk.
Can we have 8 as ".Part time investor who sometimes trade but prefers property as a better source of reliable income."
Oh god don't start talking property here LOL
Yep huge fan of his second book. Probably the most helpful book I have ever read. and good news for Dr S fans from his latest blog post,
"I also had an excellent meeting with my editor at Wiley, and it looks as though we have a very early January, 2009 publication date for my new book. "
Only 300 odd more sleeps.
TH would you mind giving me the name of his second book?
What I like so much about this book is its not a how to trade book, but rather a how to learn how to trade.
Pretty much true unless you mean in the sense of "No one ever succeeded with playing lotto". Of course some people will be successful through luck, but overall both technical analysis after transaction costs and lotto are losing propositions.
I think you will find this way off the mark Freddy.
However, there are plenty of TA versus FA threads, so as to not derail this one, if anyone wishes to take the arguement up further i suggest the do so in an appropriate thread.
thanks guys
Prawn
Why is it so hard?
- Thread starter stargazer
- Start date
And when you take out the traders who were trading with a mathematical disadvantage (IMO almost all traders are) but got "lucky" the figure is more like 1 in 10000.
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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So here at ASF we have 14000 Members of which it is highly likely that only somewhere between 2 and 140 are consistently profitable.
Trembling Hand
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You would have to take into account how many are ;
1. Just interested
2. Part time investors
3. Full time investors
4. Investors who only sometimes trade
5. Part time traders in a small time way.
6. Traders learning the ropes.
7. Full time traders. Split into 3 groups;
a. Successful
b. Breaking even but living on savings.
c. Gradually going broke.
For the record I class myself as a mixture of 2 and 4. Maybe that is another group.
theasxgorilla
Problem solved... next bubble.
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Sometimes doing it the hard way is the best way as you learn very fast from your mistakes and are never to make them again in the future.
Most people who do start out play it the safe path and then somewhere down the track it all goes wrong and they give up... I think the quicker you experience the bad side of trading, the more disciplined you set yourself to become successful. It's one thing to say "I will cut losses short, I will trade my plan, etc" but when your money is on the line, most beginners will never follow it, resulting is losses and then giving up.
I started in the deep end (options, due to the limited risk of buying calls and puts) which was not a good thing in the start... but having done some terrible mistakes and loosing hard earned cash, it has made me a much better trader and have been quite profitable since. Most of my calls are usually wrong these days, but being able to cut my losses quick and catch the big waves is what makes it all worth it.... good luck
IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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Agree with 'Share It'
I recall reading Dr Ehlder's book where he says the best way to learn is to have as many small trades as you can, to get the experience. But do not lose all your money in your first year.
Therefore reading up on risk mngmnt to minimise loss, and money mngmnt to restrict position size well within your own risk parameters, has gotta be a big help before placing trades.
Learning to trade by your self, your own way systematically with some degreee of structure, must have something going for it, because you read so often from some of the best traders in the world, who are proud to admit that that is how they started out.
I recall reading Dr Ehlder's book where he says the best way to learn is to have as many small trades as you can, to get the experience. But do not lose all your money in your first year.
Therefore reading up on risk mngmnt to minimise loss, and money mngmnt to restrict position size well within your own risk parameters, has gotta be a big help before placing trades.
Learning to trade by your self, your own way systematically with some degreee of structure, must have something going for it, because you read so often from some of the best traders in the world, who are proud to admit that that is how they started out.
IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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Ah yes forgot about Garry Stone have never used the service but know some one that has and she has gone on to be is in the top 1% IMHO, good advice weird where were you in the late 90's when I started out?
BTW I rate Nick Radge the same or better for learning, (no ramp read on) every thing Nick does is transparent (keeps records) and I believe Garry Stone is the same. Its not important if its real trades or assumed entries and exits its the record to have to do your home work on that counts plus it shows market reality.
The records that some keep are profits only or the last great move they picked out of hundreds......
IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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Nick I think his two books are a must read for anyone in the market 2nd one below would put most off as Brett talks about what it takes
http://books.google.com.au/books?id...arger&sig=1EdrqmQtGif38ACWN-UyK8a9LqU#PPP1,M1
http://books.google.com.au/books?id=GC5UAAAACAAJ&dq=inauthor:Brett+inauthor:N+inauthor:Steenbarger
Not the only one. I know they say it is hard to teach old dogs new tricks but I say if it aint broke don't fix it and it is working OK for me. But then, as I have said before, I'm not trying to be the richest man in the cemetary all I do is try and afford the way of life I desire without too much risk.
Can we have 8 as ".Part time investor who sometimes trade but prefers property as a better source of reliable income."
IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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Oh god don't start talking property here LOL
Trembling Hand
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Yep huge fan of his second book. Probably the most helpful book I have ever read. and good news for Dr S fans from his latest blog post,
"I also had an excellent meeting with my editor at Wiley, and it looks as though we have a very early January, 2009 publication date for my new book. "
Only 300 odd more sleeps.
TH would you mind giving me the name of his second book?
Trembling Hand
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Enhancing Trader Performance: Proven Strategies From the Cutting Edge of Trading Psychology (Wiley Trading) Brett N. Steenbarger
What I like so much about this book is its not a how to trade book, but rather a how to learn how to trade.
For the OP if you want to improve your understanding of investing I would start with reading introductory texts on:
1) Statistics/Probability
2) Micro-economics
3) Accounting
4) Finance
5) Books by or about Munger, Buffett, Thorp, Lynch
Stay well clear of
1) Technical analysis
2) Modern Portfolio theory
1) Statistics/Probability
2) Micro-economics
3) Accounting
4) Finance
5) Books by or about Munger, Buffett, Thorp, Lynch
Stay well clear of
1) Technical analysis
2) Modern Portfolio theory
Trembling Hand
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Pretty much true unless you mean in the sense of "No one ever succeeded with playing lotto". Of course some people will be successful through luck, but overall both technical analysis after transaction costs and lotto are losing propositions.
prawn_86
Mod: Call me Dendrobranchiata
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I think you will find this way off the mark Freddy.
However, there are plenty of TA versus FA threads, so as to not derail this one, if anyone wishes to take the arguement up further i suggest the do so in an appropriate thread.
thanks guys
Prawn