So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
- Joined
- 31 August 2007
- Posts
- 7,474
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- 1,485
biggest mistake to make - letting your buy price be an anchor.
Capital is to be protected. Looses need to be minimised and wins need to be run hard.
Lets look at an example of that theory.
Market darling BHP is currently at the same price now that it was in June 2007.
Since then it has paid $5.84 per share in dividends.
Taking into account the dividend and CPI you would have achieved about 3.94% pa for six years on your investment.
I am aware that if you go back a further 6 years then you will capture the pre GFC and mining boom era but if you want to think long term starting now do you expect a repeat ?
Not saying that your theory is wrong, you are correct that it is easier but how effective for the future I have doubts about.
Just my
Remember that every time you buy shares, the guy selling the shares is probably smarter than you.
I don't think i said something stupid did i ?
For you, it is the unknown, ...
but the talking duck, aka tech/a, knows a better way!
thanks for your
Cool story wannabe pro trader.
Simple: Greed, greed, greed.
<snip>
... could be seen as a tax ploy.
I agree.
As I have read tech/a say it is not about being wrong it is about how you respond to being wrong. Boggo and others here constantly throw up charts identifying not just a perceived potential entries (probability) but position sizes, initial stop losses (risk) and initial targets (probability).
The moment I understood (quite recently) that this game is about probability and risk management I changed my thinking. Now I've just got to change my behaviour (and learn and practice the required behaviour).
That said, in the long run (over thirty years plus) I am sure that an averaging in strategy into good growth and/or income stocks is going to do OK. But as we have seen in the past few years and as the historical charts demonstrate, there are decades where averaging into the blue chips or the index is going to get you nowhere.
I am wondering how do individuals lose money in the stock market?. Do they fail because of there lack of knowledge in Economics, Finance and Sharing Trading and TA Software ?. Do they just see $$$$ signs everywhere and splash there cash around hoping on luck ?. I mean how do some investors fail in investing there money successfully in the stock market?.
All I hear in regards to the stock exchange people losing money I even know people who have halved there investment money in the stock exchange when trading shares. I hear that its a system made to lose money rather then make money?.
Are there any well written share trading books with strategies that can atleast some what help reduce your risk of losing all your investment money in the shares?
Thanks
because people get conned into thinking they can become a proficient trader because they have a fancy platform with lots of lines on it without understanding the macro and micro economic factors that drive stock market returns, they also think they can day trade and dictate to the market how they are going to trade.
i personally would recommend Investments By Zvi Bodie it will give you a great understanding from the top to the bottom of what actually drives stock market returns and how to capitalize on value chain shocks and events around the world.
You can't pick the bottom.
You think you can.
But you can't.
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