I have a 100% winning ratio since October (only about 10 trades)..im punting with all of my bank, all of the time and doing really well, though not spectacularly well cos im selling way to early
have to say that my typical buy targets seen to have evaporated into this rally...so find myself a bit directionless.
One thing i learned is that there are systematic plans for share trading that can can and do achieve good results...also understand the argument for not averaging and not believing in anything...and its a sound argument.
Also know that i have averaged down very successfully....and have seen my trades turn around when given time and exited in profit, in fact im able to trade now because i averaged down into my LGL position last spring, and turned a big loser (45%) into a nice little winner (about 14% from memory)
Also learned that Trendy's are very predictable....and i think trend following suits certain disciplined personality's better than others.
1. Trade good.
2. Buy high, sell higher.
1. Don't trust 2. an 3. internet avatar's 4. top 5 5. trading rules. Unless they are a tiger.
2. Buy high, sell higher.
2. Buy high, sell higher.
Acting Under Uncertainty - 25 Rules Of Thumb
Beware of obvious rewards and excessive competition - they increase exposure to chance events and reduce the role of skill in acquiring rewards
Watch for hidden correlations
Be suspicious of stability or the appearance of stability - there are higher dimensions of risk lurking in the shadows
Remember that volatility begets volatility
Invest in preparation - insure against the worst-case-scenario
Take a large number of risks where the downside is clipped and well-understood (the risk of embarrassment is a good example of such a risk)
Focus on the knowledge as well as the confidence on the knowledge - calculate error rates whenever possible
Don’t play in uninsurable environments
Diversify. Massively
Be wary of conventional statistics (”R squared,” correlation) in domains where there is evidence for the existence of power-law behavior
Remember that uncertainty stems from unknowledge - chaos theory is not the same thing
In the short to medium term, the least fit can survive and even excel
Beware of “because” and inferring causation - especially if the downside of being wrong is high
The obvious can be overpriced
The past is not the future
Distinguish between domains with and without experts - know “how” vs. know “what”
There are always things that can be done even with no knowledge - acting under true uncertainty need not lead to decision paralysis
Disconfirmation is more powerful than confirmation - the problem of induction
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence
Strive to balance searching and acting
Look for the presence of survivorship and availability bias
Question your premises
Impact matters - distinguish between frequency and impact
Always remember - rare events are unpricable
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best
Too much money is lost and too much money is missed
for two simple reasons: One, trying to predict the
future, and two, fearing the future.
George F. King
Of everything I've read on this post. This is the one that makes the most sense.
Why??
Because you are buying as price is heading up and you are buying in the direction of the prevailing trend.
1. Trade with Momentum
2. Trade with Momentum
3. Trade with Momentum
4. Trade with Momentum
5. Trade with Momentum
Trailing Stop + Fixed Stop for Exits.
Tell that to investors that were buying stocks late '07. It's not enough to just trade in the direction of the trend, we need a good price, and a good price is always a low price. If all we had to do was trade in the direction of a trend, the entry wouldn't really matter, but it does, so more is required.
Why? Give me an example when this has worked
God there's some rubbish on this thread.
It depends how high is "high". If you had have bought at the top of the bubble in 2007 and didn't have a stop loss, you'd be in trouble.
Would you really be game enough to enter a trade at the 4100-4200 level, given that there is still some uncertainty in the economy? I am quite happy to be proven wrong, i am not heavily invested in the market at the moment. Even if it pulled back to 4100, would you be game enough to enter with a large position?
Waiting for a pullback to 4100 (higher than the lows) could possibly be a safer entry than waiting for a selling spree and washout. I'm just a bit skeptical about the statement "buy high, sell higher" because it's not quantified enough. You might want to say, "once the lows have been tested twice, i am happy to enter".
God there's some rubbish on this thread.
You're not talking about your comment are you? Because mine is fine.
You're not talking about your comment are you? Because mine is fine.
Tell that to investors that were buying stocks late '07. It's not enough to just trade in the direction of the trend, we need a good price, and a good price is always a low price. If all we had to do was trade in the direction of a trend, the entry wouldn't really matter, but it does, so more is required.
Yes.
Anytime you want 3 or 4 examples backed by live trading records just let me know.
Both you and Aussi need to do some serious learning.
Highlghted for clarity.
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