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VAU - Vault Minerals

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LostHisShirt, when you say "In my opinion this means we have a large amount of holdouts who are waiting for the Announcements etc. before they unleash the dragon on the stock.", do you mean that you think there is a considerable amount of holders waiting for the chance to dump but at a higher price?

I'm hoping that holders will realise that in fact RED will not only get a re-rating based on fundamentals, but also will be a longer term hold as we begin a new phase of the company's existence and the realisation that in due course it will be trading from a base of around p/e = 3 or thereabouts (depending of course on where the price trades at, when re-rated).
 

<--- waiting for annoucements

I only have a small parcel @ 0.165 and 0.17... sigh.
 

That is exactly what I mean, Beatle. I could be right, I could be wrong, but the price action doesn't indicate I am incorrect. The only reason we have a lot of selling into bids is because an exponential amount was purchased during the recent tanking of the ASX. Purchasing at 0.165 - 0.18cps and dumping into .205 - .21cps is decent profit for traders.

The smart money is holding fast until such time as they can get a decent price - I am one of them. I am too scared to purchase at this price at this time not that I am intending on making a purchase anyway.

I should mention that by scale RED5 Limited is outperforming the XAO.

And why do you keep calling me "Losthisshirt" rofl hahahaha!
 
Hi guys this is my point of veiw ATM (a neutral point of veiw, if it goes up I win and if it goes down I top up).
This morning after open (within 30 mins) I had a good hard look at the trading, at this point it was 1 tick up trading at 21.5 there was 1,119000 units for sale at 21.5 and 360000 units on ask at 21.0.
As we all know short supply and high demand causes price to jump up, ATM im not seeing this with plenty of supply but no one to buy at that price.
For this reason I think that if there isnt any announcements we will see a drop of 3 to 5 ticks from 21.0 to (19.0 or 19.5) this week at some point an I will be ready to top up when it does.
This is just my opinion and I could be wrong but im fairly confident in my actions.

DYOR
 

I would be following that as well. A top up at .195 is not a bad idea.

Bulls and bears are fairly equal in this. Like I said earlier we would be needing some help to prop up past that 21 cent mark. .19-.195cps is not a long shot at all - in fact, it is around the corner. We did have some fair buying today though - whatever the sellers threw out the buyers bought on market were just short of a 50/50.
 
My opinion on where RED is heading depends greatly on the POG.
If it drops $50 over night look for 1-2c drop but if gold maintains it's current trend (which i think it will) i cant see RED going back to 19c. REDs Gold pour is getting too close for any major pull backs.
 

You do make a point regarding the external factors of RED stock influences, Jancha.

I should mention my thought do usualy come purely from Technicals and nothing more. I am personally confident on RED's profitability and the fundamentals speak for themselves.
 
Stressful times the next one month then.

There was significant resistance today at the $0.210-0.215 mark.

XAO is again very very close to the critical 4400 point. As I write this, DJIA has just opened down 0.5%.

On the other hand, gold has had a short rally touching almost $1700 just a few hours back, however it is now again back to $1680s (which is still quite high given recent prices).

It is worth considering that RED can suffer a minor pullback like the others have mentioned, before shooting back up around the start of November based on expectations. I think it is a possibility.

As I've said previously, it's important to keep in mind the money sitting at the sidelines, the question is whether it will cause RED to shoot back up quickly without taking much of a dive or merely stagnate it's falls. It's no good if selling pressure is taken out by those wanting to top up their long positions and we are left with 18-19c without significant excess buyer support.

 
LostMyShirt said:
I thought I had read somewhere it was early Nov' or something along those lines.
Click to expand...

I believe that the first gold pour is late November to Early December (correct me if im wrong Beatle but im 99% sure im right) so say about 6 to 7 weeks)

POG has had 2 attemts in the last week at $1700 and dropped back to $1670ish hopefully it will hold up and go on wthi it on the 3rd attempt.

I know that all that hold RED are very optimistic (and they have good reason to be with the fundementals) but I think that there is plenty of time...about 3 weeks before this one takes off.
I think next month will see a couple of good announcements but for now there isnt much to prop up the price a great deal.

DYOR
 
Hi Guys,

I just thought I would add my from what I have seen from resource companies moving to producer status.

I agree that you should see an increase once productions starts, however you the real re-rating should come after 1 or 2 quarters of results. This will help prove that the company can meet its production targets, costs of operating, etc. Once the market is confident management can run the mine to the predicted level of profitability then the SP will rise to be more in line with broker valuation.
 
Some very interesting comments have been made the last day, very enlightening for a non-trader like me to hear the general thoughts of those that try to predict each move in RED's share price. And I can't fault the reasoning, but I wouldn't dare trade in it iike that as I would end up losing my shares too easily and then get caught chasing it back up! I have been in RED far too long to risk it that way, but I can understand those that have just joined in don't have the same long term view of things.

(By the way LostYourShirt, I prefer to make sure its clear that its not MY shirt that has been lost, lol).

DougsAntiques, from my reading of the last announcement and my last trip to site, its likely the first first gold pour is more likely at the end of November.

As you can expect, starting up a large new gold processing facility, whilst using relatively simple and tried and proven technology, still takes time to commence and finally arrive at required operating levels. There is a commissioning period which takes a few weeks, firstly as a dry testing with the various circuits being tested to ensure each appear to be working correctly, then progressively moving into a wet commissioning where all the small issues relating to various factors such as leaks, grind, etc and how the circuits link to each other. There are ALWAYS things to sort out, its part of a normal commissioning process, and in addition the operators need to become familiar with the running of the plant and the various parameters that have to be considered to ensure appropriate recovery levels based on grind size, leach kinetics, etc etc.

I would imagine when RED commence the wet commissioning they will put out an announcement and its likely that we won't get a first gold pour for a few weeks after that time. In addition I presume we will get an announcement regarding a revision to the mining/production schedule, and that should also provide us all with the possible increase in total gold production over the following 10 or so years of reserve life. Hopefully total recoverable ounces will increase closer to 1 million ounces!

And yes I agree with you InvestorPaul, that it will take a couple of quarters to get closer to significant premium that I expect, beyond the overall fundamental cash flow valuation. But don't be confused, we are still to get a very significant re-rating IMO towards that NPV valuation as we move into production. That is more likely achieved once the doubters realise there really is gold at Siana, and RED is capable of producing large quantities of it cheaply!
 
Check out the price action. It is trading sideways, and on the bids we got over 1m units supporting the 20cps mark. The price is not going to shoot up in a straight line - we have already seen the downfalls of such a move.

Gold is trading within a steady range with a few false breakouts along the way - it should remain steady providing there is no crash such as that experienced in 08. Also, I should mention with respect to the XAO; RED is outperforming it, and the XAO itself is showing 4400 resistance. It would be no suprise if we drop from that point, as we are today, but there is nothing on the horizon at this time to indicate a drop below bottom and continuation of the downtrend.

Paul is 100% is suggesting that the stock should be fundamentally re-rated after two quarters have ended and results are tallied.

Beatle - I agree with you in not wanting to trade the stock. I am not saying one cannot do so, as it has already been done by the likes of Star, but I've been slightly uneasy about selling off with the intent of re-purchasing. Thankfully we did have a pullback to sub 20's, and I Was able to make a simple buy/sell.

I do apologize about the wrong time frame for the Gold pour - sorry about that.
 
No-one should really take any notice of bid and offer volumes except where there are lots of little bids which can tell you something in itself but only when traded.
But most know what iceberging is (google it), don't read anything into the volume for sale etc. unless you are a market maker, and no offense but you wouldn't spend your days here if that were the case!
 

Yes, good point. I retract what I said about the volume support - at this time it has shifted. Those who with to purchase at 19 cent rage will have that oppertunity at the end of the week in my opinion.
 
One thing I noticed about volume when i was looking over the last 3m chart today, is that in the last few weeks volume has been significantly below the normal of the last few months.

I also see the ratio of buyers to sellers slowly tightening towards 1.

 
Starcraftmazter, I had a look at charts for RED over the past year, 6 months and 3 months, and really can't see any discernible change in the volumes traded that you are referring to. Short of me going to the trouble of actually adding up the individual daily trading volumes over the past 6 months to see any relative difference, can you quantify the variation that you observe in any way? I would say that the past week or thereabouts there has been a slight drop in volume but nothing that could point to any noticeable trend in trading activity.

I do agree with MrJeff, that with Bot trading being rife in RED, as I'm sure all will agree is happening, its very hard (for me impossible) to now which way the days trading will pan out, thats why I suggest that if you are happy with holding RED for the medium to long term, you run a danger of trading out of it with the games these Bots play. In google it refers to Bot trading as "assisting in minimising the impact of the trading". My variation of that definition is "manipulating the trading to suck the amateurs in"!

One further point with regard to fundamental valuation with regard to RED. I can't emphasise too much the fact that RED is not being discounted like the other gold players when the market comes off. Even though I don't deny that there are many bargains out there at the moment after the recent rout which affected all companies' prices, since RED continues to be valued as an explorer, and is due to become a significant gold producer, then the discount is deeper than that incurred by other gold producers, who generally are trading at a premium to the NPV notwithstanding them having been discounted in the past month and a half. RED needs to catch up to those producers, and will do so once it moves into production, then we can complain only that it is being discounted similar to other gold producers, at the moment its being discounted because its not classified as a gold producer.

And the real reason for RED always having been discounted, for those that haven't followed it so much in the past, is that it has had a few false goes at producing at Siana. It was expected to go into development when if first got a bank loan from Societe Generale, back in 2007, but that ended with a puff when the bank had a condition precedent that RED needed to increase the reserve life considerably, which entailed a huge drilling program. All that work has now been done, and all the hard yards in completing environmental plans and audits have been completed, the plant is almost complete now, the pit is effectively dewatered, the ore reserves have been increased considerably, close to 1 million ounces. Its about time to start believing in RED, holding tight with your shares and making a motsa.... Thats' my view anyway!
 
Have noticed volume coming back a bit.



If I had to have a poke at it, I would say that larger players hoping that their lack of buying may spur short term weakness to enable further accumulation. This would also explain the very thin little parcels that are running through at the moment.
Have a look a few posts ago to see if this is working.

Some here have sold much of their holdings this week and last, why ? scared price going to fall. Has it gone anywhere ? Someone is buying them.

A bit more time at around the early 20's and that could provide the start of a move. Still looking to MC=330M + cash.
 
Today is a SLOW day for RED. Seems that buyers are testing holders out to see if they can get any more at the current level of around 20.5 cents. I wouldn't mind betting that this is a precursor to another test of the 24 cents level in the coming week or so!

When you think about it, we only have less than 2 weeks to go to the end of this month (=> the quarterly report is due at the end of October at the latest), and thus the outstanding information that we are waiting for, viz. reserve/production schedule update, status of commissioning, should soon be with us.

Then its surely countdown to the first gold pour...
 
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