VAU - Vault Minerals

Hi Fastbuck, whilst I'm not able to speak authoritatively on the technicals of the RED chart as I'm not an expert, but I would say that I believe that RED remains being manipulated by various investors/traders etc, so I'm not convinced its going to those levels unless there is an absolute bloodbath in the USA tonight.

I prefer to continue focusing on the fundamentals of RED and its Siana gold project, and the price of gold. Surely the price of gold will only benefit by this downgrade of USA debt, so maybe the cash flow model assuming more of the same high gold prices in coming years is a reasonable assumption, thus my model valuation around 40 cents is more possible. If you want to know about the current aussie dollar gold price I refer you to:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XAU&to=AUD&view=10Y

Today gold is the highest it has ever been in aussie dollars, of $1,614/oz!!!

In terms of the project, Siana I understand is now cruising towards the finish line, there has been no problems with putting together the mechano set once the heavy rains subdued, in addition the pit is close to being fully dewatered, with the last dregs to be used in the wet plant commissioning which will also deliver a few ounces of gold in the process. I understand that the resource re-evaluation could be interesting, on a positive outcome!

I am in the market again and buying at current levels, I dont think it will go any lower to be honest unless the USA market crashes, and I'm prepared to invest against that likelihood anyway.

Oh how an hour makes a difference in these volatile times!

RED is UPPPP, +10% and gold has shot up to a record US$1,693/oz = A$1,623/oz.

Apparently there is now growing talk of QE3 so gold is surely going to be supported heavily if that talk gets momentum and is instigated.

Dear All,

Joyous day!. On a day of asx dropping heavily at the start (close to 100) seems to have stablised with it being down around 20 at present.

Amidst the chaos, Red has quitely gone up 10%, with over 6m orders being accumulated in the last hour over 13-15.5c. It is a good sign I reckon (especially since i bought another batch on fridat at 14.5c).

LIke Beatle has already mentioned, gold has a new high (again?) @ close to 1700US/oz. Sign of a promising time ahead. Shame you are leaving us at 20c Fastbuck. Only time will tell whether thats a good move

Hi Beatle and others, some recovery evident in SP this morning which augurs well.
Talk of a QE3 needs to be tempered by the strong Chinese statements which indicate they will not buy any more US debt and criticism of the US political process.
Either way, gold should continue to shine. AB

Great see your also adding some AB, in fact I got some both on Friday and this morning and I'm now more confident that once this current volatility dissipates RED will fly to higher levels, closer to its NPV valuation.

(And Fastbuck was being cheeky I reckon cos he is a hoarded and probaby wanted to buy some more at lower prices, I have no doubt he believes in a longer story - and if not then I'm sure he will revise his current view once it gets to 20 cents provided the gold price remains strongish).

Haha. I see. I guess it takes a hoarder to know one ey Beatle?

Hi Folks, very happy i was wrong with my predictions, and very happy whith the incorrect prediction i made a while back, quote "RED could be pouring gold @$1500" my revised prediction is now "RED could be pouring gold @$1800"....what will red's sp be at $1800???????

My apologies to Wtang89 for failing to recognise that you were the one I was competing with to buy shares in RED last Friday, lol, it was a mistake I made this morning after my excitement of seeing RED moving right against the trend of the general market this morning. But of course I know that AB is also right in there with RED shares too.

And yes Fastbuck, its exciting to see RED getting a lift due to the gold price rather than being dragged down with the general market! I'm disappointed that RED hasn't been able to do it of its own accord without the need to rely on an ever rising gold price. But I am convinced that once the market knows for sure that Siana is about to start produce gold then RED will get its re-rating, and I am sure that it won't stop at 20 cents so please keep that in mind in the coming months. I know its been so frustrating for us all with how things have been constantly delayed, and the wait for the price movement has almost blown us all away at times, but I would say a few things with respect to the coming months:
Siana is a standard gold operation, nothing different to anything you see elsewhere around the world. The engineering, the process, the rates of production are all stock standard, and the metallurgy of the ore is within the usual range to be expected. And furthermore the grade of the project is actually better than you see in most open cuts these days. All these factors support the low cash cost of production.
In addition, the gold reserves, currently estimated at 850,000 ounces of gold, has been determined by industry standard consultants and has been audited by a number of independent highly qualified consultants on behalf of various banks who each considered finance offerings to RED. Nothing was uncovered to doubt that the gold is there!
Therefore, having overcome the weather, we can expect a clear run towards commissioning in the coming weeks, and thus I would seriously not consider selling at anything close to 20 cents, that is a minor hurdle in the move towards a move further towards its true valuation, of course also depending upon the gold price at the time.

Damn good movement today.

I am really hoping that the US Fed announces no QE3 (for now) overnight and gold drops and RED drops so I can buy some more as my money transfer completes tomorrow. Let us see whether my theory will hold true

Well seems we are in for a bit more shock and awe on the morning today, thanks to those most reputable of investors in the USA, led by a political system that clearly has had a lot to do with this recent stock market demise.

I'd guess Starcraftmazter that your money is best out of the market til the pain subsides in the market, then we will be at basement for real bargain hunting! It really does have the deja vu feeling of 2008 GFC, and Fastbuck can very quickly recall for us how the bargain hunting began in RED. I can't see that it will get back to that, but I'm not sure we will see any advancement for any stock today and until its clear to get back in the water!

What's my strategy for RED? I won't sell a share, I am happy that the current valuation of the company will hold true once its producing gold, of course subject to whatever the gold price will be at that time. I do take a lot of comfort from a statement put out by JP Morgan, a substantial shareholder of RED, that they have moved up their expectation of US$ gold price by year end, from US$1,800 --> US$2,500!!! I would imagine with that view then RED in their portfolio is safe! Let's hope that's the majority view of all the bigger holders.

At the moment we are seeing a considerable disconnect between the aussie dollar with gold, due to the A$ being seen as a higher risk currency, lol - at the very time when S&P suggest that the USA debt has been downgraded down from AAA, whilst Australia remains AAA - work that out! Anyways, we are now almost at parity with the US$, thus in A$ the gold price is currently at an all-time high and that gives a RED valuation for Siana of way over 40 cents per share. But of course that is based on a time where sanity prevails, and this market is currently not sane!

I was watching the tv last night, and the USA trading, and one commentator made the comment with respect to commodities and asset classes, traders don't know where to put their money, so they are dumping into gold as the safe haven, clearly that is good for RED, but whether it will last for another 2 months till Siana gets into production is another question yet to be played out.

Good luck RED holders, and hang on, things will get back to sanity some time, not sure when though of course...

What a wild ride today, and great to see RED resilient and acting more like a gold producer than developer come producer! Regardless of whether the gold price keeps running up further or comes off the boil as the market turmoil slowly subsides (IF it subsides of course!), RED is a bargain basement price now, AND for offshore funds who have been active investors in RED its now effecitively around 9% cheaper due to the aussie dollar coming off by that amount in the past week!

RED has got a lot more run to come in the coming weeks IMO due to it moving closer to gold production.

With the aussie dollar dropping below parity for a bit and all... couldn't resist today, bought a little more at .155

Will up my position by progressively more again next week and then again in 2 weeks time, depending on what happens of course.


The only thing that will happen to RED's profits if the world economic situation turns worse is increase them... it's all too tempting.

Yes Starcraftmazter, its been a great opportunity to get more cheap shares the past few days, and I topped up over the past week, but to be honest with the wild ride of yesterday I didn't buy any more, just watched the action over the day. But your point that RED will benefit if times are hard is clearly playing out so long as gold is seen as a safe haven.

I would suggest also, that those who just follow technical trading might see the share price movements in the past as a key to the future direction will fail to realise that RED is now energised and moving towards commissioning and gold production - that is something RED has not encountered before, and on the current gold price RED is currently trading at a whopping discount! (Fastbuck, I hope you don't get out too soon, the real action is yet to happen IMO!).

Here we go again, is it GFC Mark2 Take 2 or is it Take 3?

As usual I will hold tight with my RED shares, and use the logic:
1. RED is soon to produce gold. Gold continues to be the only significant asset class growing in value in this crazy environment.
2. Some of the main RED shareholders are US based and with the substantial reduction in $A/$US exchange rate RED shares are close to 10% cheaper (albeit RED share price has increased) to those overseas investors.
3. RED is likely to be announcing an even more attractive revised mine plan that will improve project economics even further.

Good luck holders.

Beatle and holders,
No need for concern, RED is moving well.

Beatle, you are looking a bit like one of these:

But when there is no need! RED should hold over 15c and look at 21 before major baulks.

There is a lot of talk about RED around and about as a good stock for the gold price currently, so hopefully that helps a follow through to production with plenty of people climbing in currently with expectations of 25 - 35c in the next 12 months.

We will see.

Hi Mr Jeff and lol (but that pic won't open in my viewer for some reason).

I'm more frustrated about the impact this panicky market puts on the whole investment sector rather specifically on RED, especially since RED and other gold focused market companies are benefitting by the colossal price in gold price - its currently around US$1,805 and looking good, especially in aussie dollars whilst the A$ is weakening again.

I understand that both the Canadian and Brazilian gold companies went up overnight, so it stands to reason that the Aussie gold companies should also benefit and its so far been the case.

Certainly RED share price this morning is looking good . . .

Was kind of hoping RED would drop today so I could buy some more, it's picking up the slack for the rest of my portfolio at the moment.

Hi Guys, My grapevine tells that GE and CJ were in Sydneytown yesterday and Melbournetown today doing a large number of presentations, so interest should continue to build. AB

beatle said:

Here we go again, is it GFC Mark2 Take 2 or is it Take 3?

As usual I will hold tight with my RED shares, and use the logic:
1. RED is soon to produce gold. Gold continues to be the only significant asset class growing in value in this crazy environment.
2. Some of the main RED shareholders are US based and with the substantial reduction in $A/$US exchange rate RED shares are close to 10% cheaper (albeit RED share price has increased) to those overseas investors.
3. RED is likely to be announcing an even more attractive revised mine plan that will improve project economics even further.

Good luck holders.

Click to expand...

The main reason the Dow went down last night was due to the rumour French finances are in trouble and even Germany for that matter. Talk of down grading France to AA+. Only rumours tho but where do they start i wonder? Certainly good for the day traders & for RED holders However I hope the Deutsche Bank dont start having to sell more Red shares if the rumour turns out to be true.
Beatle: When's the official opening of REDs pour? Thinking about going if there's free food & drinks. lol

Hi All, great to see all the posts and the confidence shown in market for RED. Seems to me that the trading is probably still affected by the big boys manipulating what appear lots of crosses - I think that they must pick a price they want as the VWAP for the day and then trade around that price for the day, both selling and buying. I guess it makes liquidity but gee it makes the movements up a real grind!

As for your questions Jancha, firstly of course the involvement of Deutchse Bank in RED - it was only a custodian of shares on behalf of some holder in the eyes of ASIC and Corporations Law until it lost that role in the eyes of ASIC and therefore is not in a position to declare an interest nor in a position to sell those shares previously seen to be a beneficial interest. Therefore put simply I don't think that it holds any shares in RED at this point, and can't sell any shares at this time.
With regard to the oficial mine opening, assumedly RED will hold the mine opening once the project is producing gold and in steady state mode, thus if we assume that commissioning commences in October and first gold pour is Nov, then probably the mine opening will be held in late Nov or early Dec. Whether this is an issue with the following Christmas period, so that timing might not suit RED management.

I have every intention of attending and hope that it will be in that late Nov - early Dec period, and I would love to catch up with those shareholders planning to travel from Oz. Also I see that this opportunity to see how the mine operating would be another benefit - I still believe that we will see RED trading at a premium to its underlying NPV value on Siana, thus expect it to be around 40 - 50 cents at this time (of course depending upon gold price at that time), thus being on minesite at the mine opening might provide some i.nsight to how much higher RED can go.