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VAU - Vault Minerals

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I agree that its a positive that Matthews has bought a few more to bring it close to the brink of 20%, at least we know the main shareholders are committed - it would be fantastic if they crept above 20% in coming months, that would be a complete surprise to most I would think (but maybe they are already full at 19.2%!!!).
 
Hi Beatle, Matthews have been a cornerstone investor for many years now, so it is not really a surprise to see them topping back up. Expect them to stay just below 20% to avoid triggering things. On another aspect, I am a little puzzled by your calls for the MD to stand aside. I know that media announcements have been a bit lacking,compared to some other companies, but I don't think this in itself justifies removal or stepping aside. In my experience, the announcements made by many companies can be thin on the ground at times. If I think back a few years, there was a need to get greater institutional support to get the project moving forward. That has been well and truly achieved with a good foundation of institutional holders, including some very shrewd investors. In addition, there is now a strong team of people involved at management level, including a highly qualified project director in David Jerdin. So I am a bit mystified at your comments, remembering you also made similar comments a few weeks or months back. Can you elaborate on your comments?
AB
 
Market sources suggest that Mathews were not best pleased with the recent capital raising and that behind the scenes, there may have been some hard questions put to RED management. Personally, I wonder whether the announcement about the re-assessment of the Sprott gold loan may have been allied to this dissension, and that Mathews may have decided to get back to their previous equity level, once this had been thrashed out. As far as the GM is concerned, he has been a rather remote figure, to say the least, and suggestions that he was the reason that all these "smart" investors have gotten involved is totally off the mark. As much as I like the project, I just can't get excited about management, and I think that is the major reason for this company's continued underperformance, (as I may have said before) is that the really smart investors use 3 criteria for investment..ie. management, management, management and I still feel RED fail on all 3 counts!! The market is rarely wrong and it's trying to tell us something!
 
Hi Hugh, your comments re the market and the rather remote MD are fair enough in my view. I am not suggesting that the MD is the actual reason that institutions have become involved, but rather that the executive team/board have so far managed to get these insto's excited enough to buy into the company. Given that there is an absolute smorgasbord of opportunities in front of the insto's, then if their judgement is based on three criteria as you suggest, then management must have come up at least ok on these. Otherwise if there was doubt, why would the insto's get on board? I too heard that there was some disquiet with some of the insto's but I feel that any concerns have been put to rest. There are plenty of times when the market gets it wrong, so I am not at all concerned about where things stand at present with the SP. I too like everyone would like to see the SP trade more towards the underlying value, but that will come in time. That is the beauty of the market....trying to get ahead of it rather than follow the profiteers. My question is more about what has management done wrong (other than not put out "no news "type media bulletins)? AB
 
hugh_jarz, anderbond, you obviously have ears into market...as one who doesn't i can only speculate.....

That would fit with the dissension voting at AGM on re-election of Dundo, Jackson (circa 200m shares) that is still not explained, and would fit with MAthews not lifting their support in last capital raising (i.e. using non-participation to make their displeasure know to board over [unknown matter? /strategy?] but then going to market later to top up.)

I just can't think what would have fired them up so much, even the misstep around debt finance seems borderline ......i can only speculate .... perhaps Mathews had proferred a merger/friendly t/o or something of the sort but have no information other than speculating that it would fit
 
Hi guys, sorry for sleeping in action, I've been doing a few other things the past day (primarily cos RED is in a holding pattern at the moment!).
Whilst not wanting to inflame the fire but having stirred the hornets nest somewhat previously Anderbond, I have made my view known re the MD for a couple of reasons, but please keep it in perspective of the situation we find ourselves in currently.

I am of the view that RED is an ASX listed vehicle, and whilst there may well be some big international insto's on the books now, everything still revolves around RED getting good coverage in Australia. Since GE has indicated his intention to remain in Manila on a continuing basis for an unstated period, and clearly enjoys the tasks associated with getting the project up and running, then he is best suited to be the Project Director. But at the same time RED must be managed in the same way he runs the project. There is no way he can manage the day to day company activities whilst still trying to get the project up and running. Its as simple as that. And I believe it is reflected in the lack of PR we see on a daily basis for the company - remember that CJ appears to be the main corporate director for the company, and he is not in an executive position within the company, he is the non-executive chairman! Thus whilst CJ is involved in most of the corporate activities such as fund-raising etc, he is not there full-time!

I would like to see the Man Dir position ultimately go to a candidate that is Australian based, a more fully conversant corporate player, who has good relationships with the mining industry but also has the complete confidence in continuing to represent the company with the insto's, brokers and bankers, and us in the public as well.
 
Hi Beatle, Anderbond, Mgm1a, Hugh and others.

This is my first post but I've been following things silently from the sidelines for several months. For the record I too have a slab of RED and like to think I understand the story pretty well.

Aren't we at an interesting stage with the company moving rapidly toward producer status. Meanwhile the gold price continues north (and I believe has a long way to go - S & P research is on the record that it will be $US1600 by year end)! What does that mean for a producer with a cost of extraction at $351? What does it mean for the share price?

The issue here is that RED isn't quite a producer yet, so we are in this high anxiety period whilst the transition is happening. Human nature being what it is, people will always read more into something than necessarily exists. You only have to look at the share price over the past couple of months. People will be paying a lot more than the current price several weeks from now - that is for certain!

Are the insto's selling right now? No way! If anything they're topping up (eg. Mathews). And remember RED is only a small part of their portfolios (in most cases).

What about RED management? Well my view as a SH is that having such a hands-on CEO right in the middle of where it's all happening is the best possible scenario right now as construction hits full pace. No doubt there are all sorts of decisions best made on site - with contractors who are being paid $millions, equipment being assembled in Manilla and strategically, lots off issues to be dealt with - can only be better off with the key decision maker right there. To my knowledge GE has been with RED from the early days and he is no doubt passionate about seeing Siana through to reality.

Staff, contractors, local authorities, local community, timing the key arrival of core components, dealing with the implications of the 'big wet' they have been experiencing (hopefully it's eased now!). Honestly, if GE was sitting in Perth right now - I would be very uncomfortable.

I agree with the unanimous view that management can better handle the communication process. Just some reassurance that things are moving forward would do. Obviously the focus is strongly on getting Siana infrastructure built and the mine producing. Meanwhile, communication to shareholders (i.e. owners) is not brilliant.

With the rains - no doubt there will be some delays to first pour date, but a few weeks or even a month or two is not a big deal in the big picture scheme of things. Ensuring the construction all comes together and we have a robust structure capable of delivering, is all that matters.

I wish everyone well. Our day is not far away.
 
Great to get your post Geezuguys, especially since you clearly make a lot of very relevant and positive points about RED and GE etc. And its great to get you posting within the RED forum because we all benefit by the various views provided from shareholders coming from different angles.

I have no disagreement regarding there being slippage of a couple months in first gold pour being of little significance, particularly having held a rather large number of shares for around 14 years (which has been added to significantly since then of course), and it seems that its unlikely the project will slip any significant amount of time beyond around 2 months (say june 2011), and from then on huge monthly profits as you point out Geezuguys!

As regards the gold price, and it seems we are forging new all-time highs at the moment, RED has got all the positives going for it at the moment, especially with no hedging in place (despite my personal view that I would prefer some percentage of gold hedged to lock in sure profits!).

But I believe even in this high gold environment the market needs to be able to see differentiation between RED from other gold developers come producers and also it needs assurance that the project development is proceeding. A picture paints a thousand words, and therefore it would be fantastic for RED to send some more pics of the current pit dewatering plus latest construction pics of the treatment plant, as soon as its clear the project at site is back on development once the heavy rains have stopped.

As has been mentioned by many other posters on the RED threads, its not a matter of IF now, but more of WHEN!!! And the substantial shareholders such as Matthews surely are putting action to their views, at the moment!
 
Speak of the devil, re my last post. I had no idea that we might get the update a couple of hours after my post, but I guess its better to know we stand, and its clear that they have had a lot of rain in that part of Phils! And having gone through the same inundation ourselves of late I guess the weather is something that has a mind of its own!

But on the positive side, we can see from the pretty pics that work has indeed progressed and that the project will be full steam ahead once the rain subsides - if you look at an annual spread of the rainfall in the surigao region you will note that by end of Feb the rainfall seems to fall away fairly rapidly (historically of course!), and so we can't be far off getting some giant steps forward onsite. Lucky they are doing lots of fabrication work etc off-site, so its the main tasks of laying foundations etc that will be the rate determining step for the project. I love that last statement ..."A date for the first gold pour will be advised post pouring, curing and certification of the mill foundations." Makes me feel excited, and actually the share price where it is provides a great buying opportunity at present (but don't mention it to the Missus!).
 
Hi all
Its good to hear some news through the veil of silence, although i guess the update shows that there is basically just the expected progress going on. Im more surprised that the 20 million dollars odd of accelerated drilling on Mapawa is not mentioned? Have they put that on hold brmecayse of rain or Sienna build? not overly concerned anyway, if its good enough for matthews its good enough for me. Seems like a very secure base price is forming, and the only way is up, especially with new gold highs and the mad mullas in the middle east trying to kill each other again. Just waiting for the handbrake to be let off now. I got a few more at 18c cos there diesnt seem to be any serious downsude from here.
 
Hi all,

Just to share some of my research etc - the concrete once poured takes about 28 days to cure. This time requirement is critical to ensure the natural strength of the concrete is attained to support the mill.

Let's assume the worst of the rains have passed (which it appears they have) and the concrete is poured in the next couple of weeks, by say 20 March. If we then allow until say 20 April for it to be certified, things are then ready for the mechano set to come together.

In the meantime, a lot of planning comes into play - with the timing of barging the SAG mill across as well as other key components. You can see how having GE close at hand is really strategically beneficial to the project right now.

FYI, I am not an engineer and do not have inside knowledge, am just trying to paint the picture of how things might progress from here. Overall with some good coordination and management, timing can be optimised to minimise delays.

As per this week's announcement from GE, it will be post curing of the concrete that an announcement re first gold pour will be made. I estimate this announcement will be approx last week April / first week of May.

In the meantime, as you can see from the volumes and turnover, it's not the big (i.e. smart) money that's bailing out in the current daily action - but clearly the small guys who get frightened by alligators under the stairwell and other movement in the shadows. All the while, whilst they're deciding whether to sell at 17c or 17.5c, gold is reaching new heights and other gold stocks are growing to PE's of 15 to 20x (e.g. NCM).

Meanwhile RED at current PE's is ~ a projected 5x (and barely factoring in the current significant gold price inceases).

On another note, good to see the role of Exploration and Technical Manager is soon to be filled. This role is all about Mapawa. In recent times the weather has hampered drilling as has the turnaround in assay times and lack of drill rod extensions (for the deeper bores) - as we all know. The other problem has been reliance on contractors to effectively progress the exploration strategy. I suggest that with this new appointment (i.e. a senior position which will report directly to GE) and some better turnaround times on assays (which has recently been negotiated), we will see an acceleration in the exploration of Mapawa - and subsequent results! Don't worry, if the gold and Cu is there (which we know from what has been identified so far that it is), it will be found and reported - it's just a matter of time.

The other issue which has hampered exploration in recent months is of course the weather. I have been informed that a lot of the targeted drilling is on the side of hills which (with the truck based drill rigs) has meant that continuing the drilling in the past couple of months has been nigh on impossible (i.e. risk of mud slides, risk to workers etc.) Keep in mind, they have had 2.8m of rain since 1 January [yes! that's as high as our ceilings!]. The next several months will yield much more useful Mapawa insight.

Cheers,
Geez
 
Geez, nice comments

This seems to have slipped past OGC & RED posters...

"OceanaGold CEO Mick Wilkes wants to acquire additional gold and copper assets in south-east Asia and looks closely at the Philippines." (OceanaGold looks to the Philippines for growth. AFR 21/2/11)

Article mentions CGX,MML,RED. OGC have a $650m.cap, good cashflow and a project in Phil.s that has had history. Given that CGX,MML caps. far execed Oceanas and don't have as much apparent upside as RED, I'd have to say that at $225m RED must be on the radar?
 
I certainly hope not....what can Oceana offer, apart from superior management? I haven't stuck around this long for a predator to acquire the company at a discount to the long term potential.
 
GeezUguys, some more interesting points made, and I agree with your comments about it being an advantage for GE to be onsite/Manila for the construction and ongoing project involvement. My point regarding management does not relate to that if you read my post more carefully. Regardless, I think we all agree on one thing - RED is totally undervalued currently and it remains a fantastic buying opportunity at current prices for those not fully invested at this point.
With regard to your point about the smaller holders being the sellers at the moment, do you have any proof of that - do you know for a fact that none of the insto's that took up the placements in recent times remain holders and not selling down? If that is the case it is another confirmation that smaller shareholders should consider their positions carefully before selling out to the insto's.
As for Mgm1a's comments about the possibility of a takeover from Oceanagold or another party, well my view is to "bring it on", contrary to Hugh_Jarzz view! A takeover at this time and price would only highlight to the market that RED is undervalued, and it would most likely be the initiating factor to take RED price up to a more reasonable level, and would not necessarily, in fact unlikely, to succeed! That's why RED won't get taken out at the moment as it would just accelerate the share price up to a more reasonable level.

A successful takeover of RED would have to be priced on the basis of fair priced value of Siana, PLUS some discounted value of Mapawa, thus its unlikely to be successful below around 40 cents. Since Siana is yet to be commissioned for a few months, and thus is yet to be fully derisked, its unlikely anyone would seek to take a view on Siana valuation, and with limited recent knowledge of Mapawa potential its hard to see anyone putting in a bid at this time. But any attempt to put a value on RED now, in terms of a takeover, would certainly open up us long term shareholders to getting the value we expect for RED.
 
Hi Beatle, you make a valid point re the valuation of RED. Oceana with the Dipidio project and a 2013 production date - has no doubt eyed off RED as an attractive candidate. Would RED's Board view any offer to takeover as attractive with production only a couple of months away? Answer is - only at the right price! As they say, everything is for sale at the right price. What would that price be from Red's perspective? I'd say there would need to be a significant premium for Mapawa built in. At 40c to 45c why wouldn't shareholders agree on the short term? OceanaGold at current levels - could only see upside for Oceana in such a deal. Of course, overall view on gold price has to be north as mine is. Hard to see the downside of such a deal. N.B would be happy to hold Oceana at current prices if said transaction were to occur. And there's always a stock such as RMS and its current quality assets! We wouldn't go wanting post such a transaction! Cheers, Geez.
 
Hi Mgm

I note your comments re my previous post. Well spotted on the Oceana front. Good stuff! Cheers Geez.



 
knock at the door!
NCM calling with a new md and cash to burn,

i feel he will need a win of some kind to cement his role and prove he's worthy,
what do you think of this senario?
 
Hi Atomic,

I like any scenario that provides some opportunity to have the market fully appreciate the totally undervalued situation that RED finds itself in at the moment. It doesn't mean that RED will get taken out at some discount as it will highlight to all what RED should be trading at now rather than its current discounted price.
But for a takeover to be successful any takeover would have to be pitched at a reasonable premium to current price and frankly I can't see any astute insto currently holding stacks of stock wanting to depart the scene so quickly without getting full value. Thus any potential acquirer will find it hard to make a reasonable offer.

On the other side of it, most of the bigger acquirers will be looking way beyond Siana to have an interest - they wouldn't find Siana appealing as its too small for them, most have criteria of several million ounce resource/resource potential, and therefore until a few more positive results come out of Mapawa RED won't probably be that much of interest.

At the end of June we know that RED is due for a major re-rating as it gets into first gold production, so its not long to wait now anyway.
 
with the silver price really starting to take of it seams the market has'nt factored in that red could also earn $10 000 000 in silver in its first year of production.... 245800 oz silver @40=9 832 000 and is quite possible silver will be $50 on red's first pour and gold $1500 it should be a double wammy on the sp....i just carnt beleive red's current sp....
http://www.fatprophets.com.au/Membe...028eac834&product=Australasian Mining&pt=paid
 

Ty Beatle , any takover will surely rerate red's sp lihir case in mind at present ,
I'll say never say never on the poss of a takeover
 
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