VAU - Vault Minerals

Well resol 10 passed, just. You can see why they were sweating...only 11% of total current shares voted YEs to pass the Resol. most had to abstain and half of existing shares not involved.

Resol 4 had some noticeable No but look at the Noes for Resol 3 (reelect Dundo) and Resol 4 (Jackson) -wow pretty serious 190 mill and 200 mill respectively. These guys must have had some difficult conversations with some powerful existing holders - the size of these Noes point to possible future board changes. Barry Bolitho sudden departure (still a director on 29/10 in last announcement) is ominous too - i never like it when directors don't get acknowledged in the Notice (also note the Chairmens address was adsnt of comment too). I can only speculate that we may be seeing some argy-bargy at high (ownership) levels on possible ties/mergers/JV/ T/O??

Did anyone attend?

Its obvious the language and style of the Chairmans Address being somewhat frosty that things aren't all good in insto land as well! I had wondered why he didn't see more detail on the rationale of finance rasie and perhaps a dressing down of DB/Ashmore?? so thats why

Hi magm1a,
Typical Red AGM ,very poor attendance but resolutions passed so Red is now a veritable cash box .You may be right about the disquiet from some large institutions & all the new North Americans that may come on to the share register but that will probably be good for small SH.It will be interesting to see any of the new substancial shareholdings due out with the new raisings.
Sciana is going ahead and is still on schedule for first Gold pour.
There was discussion about dilution due to new large CR but management clearlly wanted the certainty of grabbing the cash now so that completion of mine after a very long lead time.Who can blame them! (Never get between a polatition and a pile of cash also).

Hi Mgm1a, I rate your observations on the votes for/against the directors as being very interesting indeed, and maybe there is some fire to follow that smoke!

I have been disappointed to hear that apparently very few people attended the AGM, and actually very surprising now that RED has got a considerable following, and Siana is getting much closer to its development. But maybe its resulted from the fact that the shareholder based has moved, so that most following RED live elsewhere and not in Perth! I recall when it was a local Perth stock, that was only followed by spec punters related to Patersons and Montagu - oh how things have changed!

About RED's presentation and Chairmans Address released, a few things that I found noteworthy were:

1. The indicated mine life has increased from 10 years to 11 years - not sure how though as there is no new resource/reserve statement;

2. Development continues on schedule for first gold in late April or early May 2011. That is very reassuring!!!

3. Mapawa surface sampling shows some very high grades of gold and base metals. Clearly the MPSA remains a highly prospective area, with many targets even beyond the LSY prospect! Its surprising that no new hole information were announced for Mapawa, but as stated by the Chairman that assay turnaround time has been pushed out considerably. Such is the problem when commodity prices move, everyone clogs up the assay labs with samples!

4. The statement .."The placement to institutions, included three of the world’s largest specialist resource funds, each managing in excess of US$6 billion in equities" must account for something!!!

Now its up to those insto's to support RED on-market....

beatle
answer to #1. is in first paragraph of address.."the higher spot price...opportunity to re-assess mine cut-off grade to ..increase production".

Yes thanks for pointing that out Mgm1a. But you would think that prior to announcing an extension to a mining schedule there would be the additional release of an updated ore reserve, so until we are advised formally we are none the wiser about the variations to the base case cash flow model - and of course in year 11 there will be almost no additional impact of cash flows on NPV due to the interest rate applied - unless there is a substantial increment to those reserves resulting in a complete variation to the process rate on all earlier years as well.

It looks like RED may have seen its low point for the time being, or have I spoken too soon. I do hope that the negativity creeping into posts on HC are not taken too seriously by investors, its a shame that a few stirrers have managed to spook the general atmosphere of investors, particularly after it has now been confirmed that RED WILL develop Siana as per schedule, and there are now more heavy insto's due to appear on the register with this second tranche of the placement.

RED trading on thursday was quite instructive and a possible indication of whats about to happen! Whilst some(one?) slowly dropped a couple million shares at an even 18.0 cents during the major part of the day, in the final hour or so the weight of sellers pushed the price marginally into the red at 17.5 cents.
I could almost sense though that the mad rush out the door is now calming to a walk, and i wouldn't be surprised to see it hang around the closing price, give or take a cent for the next week before maybe the new insto's on the register might start taking up the lead for some more shares on market.

Maybe the exact timing of any push will be initiated by the confirmation of those recent placement funds being lodged with the ASX, so wait for the REd announcement of that in coming days. If that happens we might see a push upwards finally to test some more attractive prices. Its just my feeling, nothing of course is certain, but surely for their own best interest groups such as the likes of $6 billion funds management groups must have a budget to shore up their take up of placement amounts with some on-market buying! I'm not holding my breath but will be very relieved when I finally see a reason to have these new groups on the register, starting to push their weight in buying amongst us small humble retail investors and punters!

I await the move up please guys...

"I await the move up please guys..."
Feels like I've been saying that for a while but then you've been with these guys longer than most : )

So who are the new insto's on the register?

Hi Hurricane, lol. Yes patience is a virtue in the case of RED, but having been with it so long now all I can do is wait for that ultimate reward that I believe is still to be played out.

With respect to who are those incoming insto's well I can only quote from the ASX announcements of recent times...

Chairmans Address for the just past AGM:
..."The placement to institutions, included three of the world’s largest specialist resource funds, each managing in excess of US$6 billion in equities. The ability to secure substantial funding from these funds together with existing Australian institutions and high net worth investors is a powerful combination to advance the Company into the future."

And the latest quarterly:
..."A syndicate comprising Casimir Capital (lead), Petra Capital and Southern Cross Equities, has placed 300 million shares at 17 cents per share to existing institutional shareholders and professional investors, and leading North American and United Kingdom institutions."

I can't wait to see if these new insto's want to increase their holding on market, I believe that they will not be participating just for a gradual passive investment without some market purchases as well - and I would be surprised to not see Baker Steel re-commence its previous trading which probably was stalled whilst the AGM was in the wings.

Probably if there is some trading activity up it will be when the new shares are issued, but thats just my speculation. What I have always believed is that with the development of Siana now assured, and on a timeframe of April or thereabouts, there is relatively limited time now to be on board before the re-rating from discount to premium to the NPV for Siana. And since the gold price remains comfortably above the US$800 despite a higher aussie dollar, there is more than enough reasons to expect a move upwards closer to 40 cents (ie at a premium) in the coming months.

In the meantime Mapawa, which has no value in the eyes of the market other than confirming substantial promise with the surface sampling on trenching, and initial Suricon drilling plus the first holes to 600 metres depth, could add considerably to that base value for Siana.

I hear the doomsayers, I read the gloomy HC posts, but anyone who either wants to knock the company with a view to buying cheaper, or has a lifelong vendetta on management means nothing to me when I have seen this transition from explorer to producer played out many times in the past decades. The only difference now is that gold has moved up many notches from those past decades, and Aussie gold stories are relatively sparse and certainly undervalued by the market compared to their N American counterparts.

RED WILL go UP IMO, its a matter of when it goes, not if it goes! (It may even drop before it goes up, but it will make new highs unless the gold price were to re-trace right back to US$800).

Hi all RED members, interesting to see the notices re institutional shareholdings start to appear. I understand the second tranche of funds will be paid today and the shares allotted on Monday. As Beatle mentions that will then enable some of the newer players to start to build on their allotments at their convenience. Also understand that even with the successful CR, that the gold loan is not yet a fully done deal as there are still conditions precedent to be met in relation to the legal side of things. So the additional CR may yet provide "comfort" if the gold loan does not proceed in its present form. Another indication imo that we have strong yet conservative management that clearly understands how to get the project up despite the negative remarks by some posters here and on HC. The time for a glass of RED is fast approaching, in fact why not now(lol).I will be looking for signs in the sediment to tell me that there will be a new price base forming soon, maybe around 24c. AB

Anderbond - what is you take on the major negative votes by instos to resols to re-elect Dundo and Jackson? The exit of Bolitho having been only apptd in March also seems to indicate all not well at Board/heavy hitters level?

anderbond said:

Hi all RED members, interesting to see the notices re institutional shareholdings start to appear. I understand the second tranche of funds will be paid today and the shares allotted on Monday. As Beatle mentions that will then enable some of the newer players to start to build on their allotments at their convenience. Also understand that even with the successful CR, that the gold loan is not yet a fully done deal as there are still conditions precedent to be met in relation to the legal side of things. So the additional CR may yet provide "comfort" if the gold loan does not proceed in its present form. Another indication imo that we have strong yet conservative management that clearly understands how to get the project up despite the negative remarks by some posters here and on HC. The time for a glass of RED is fast approaching, in fact why not now(lol).I will be looking for signs in the sediment to tell me that there will be a new price base forming soon, maybe around 24c. AB

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with all the money red now has in the kitty why bother with the gold loan??? need some more money ????lets have another capp raising!!

Hi All RED posters, some interesting comments from a few different angles for us to consider:

Anderbond, your point made about the outstanding conditions precedent for the loan is very relevant, and clearly does once again demonstrate the very careful approach that the board has taken to ensuring enough cash in the bank to develop Siana. Whilst its been a hot topic with regard to the extra shares issued, us shareholders at least can be assured that whethre the loan is finalised or not, there are now no more doubts about IF the project will be developed, and also now not a doubt about WHEN the project will be completed!
Unless there is a very significant wet season ahead, we know that Siana WILL come on line either late April or during May of 2011, at an initial monthly rate of about 6,000 ozs (ie gross revenue per month of A$8.4 million based on current aussie gold price of A$1,400/oz!), and progressively moving towards 9,000 ozs per month and beyond in year 4. With the indication of higher treatment rate and increased gold production referred in the last AGM presentation that production profile might be conservative now!

Mgm1a, I agree that there appears to be some instability going on at the insto level for some of the board members. I'm not sure how significant this is and whether it will lead to any changes at board level. If it were to occur it might not necessarily be seen as a bad thing by the market so long as the executive team are not distracted from the task at hand to bring Siana on, and I have no doubt that no insto would seek to create any chaos at this critical and exciting stage of RED's development. However, its important for all to recognise the ultimate success that the Chairman has managed to achieve in introducing insto's to RED, thus giving the company a level of credibility and market following the envy of many other resource companies on the ASX.

Fastbuck1, of course you are cynical as we are all at times, I hope its not a sign that you have sold out as we have been on this long arduous path for too long to lose a founding member of the RED posting team! (And I had hoped to meet with you and other RED members at the time of the mine opening in May or thereabouts next year!). If you have, then maybe you will realise that once this current negative sentiment creeping into RED's share price is over that RED should be a good investment in the medium term.

On a gold price front, even though in US dollars the gold price has moved south in the past weeks, please keep an eye on the following aussie dollar gold price, its now looking to move beyond the resistance level of A$1,400/oz, and trending ever so slightly towards its all time high achieved on the 8th June 2010:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XAU&to=AUD&view=1Y

Hi Beatle, no hav'nt sold any red , just as frustrated as the next share holder,now the capp raising dust has settled i hope red can now start releasing some ann that can give the sp a real boost, hopefuly some good results from mapawa will be of some benifit.....

Agreed Fastbuck, it would be good to start getting some positive announcements out, but as you point out realistically the only news we can expect on project front is probably an update on the latest Mapawa drilling that might be restricted or delayed due to slow assay turnaround time of latest drill results. I am not sure if the latest drill holes are that deep - they might just be targeting the top couple of hundred metres so unlikely to have any whopping intersection lengths.

I'm hoping that the insto's can prove their worth (particularly the + $6 billion group recently introduced by our management!) and once shares have been issued in this latest placement that they start demonstrating their intentions to support the price with some very hefty bidding. What we really seek is positive buying support, noting that the market price remains around 50% of Siana NPV!!! With all the cash in the bank now to support the development, plus considerable cash left over there is no reason why RED can't start re-rating - after all, its only about 5 months or so to first gold pour!!!

Hi mgm1a, I think Beatle and others are on the money in that the CR has in fact caused some unhappiness with some of the insto's. I believe the biggest shareholder is ok, but two or three of those next in line have expressed themselves. The negative voting against CJ is indicative of this. I suggest CJ is well aware of things and will carry out some fence mending. I agree with Beatle that it is unlikely it will become a burden on the SP, but perhaps might mean that some insto's revise their exit price down a little. A lot really depends on the drilling with Mapawa and perhaps also some of the other areas held, as I understand there is an enormous amount of prospectivity.
I also mention that Siana might also provide some further surprises as time goes by. AB

Hi Anderbond
I agree with your sentaments but its not having any posative effects on the SP.Could some of the instos be sending a sharp message to CJ as he might have wrongfooted some of their future plans for Red 5.Anyone would think they are minning in (Afghanistan ) and did not have over 100 Million cash to finish a low cost mine within the next six months or so.
The Gold price is over 1400 A$ and I suppose we will all have to wait until some sanity comes back into this stock.
Keep maintaining the faith .

You have put an interesting light on things Mardo, even to the possibility that one or more of the instos may want to control RED's course of actions, but regardless, putting things in the right perspective, for RED's share price:
1. RED has now got the money to develop Siana;
2. Siana development remains on track for first gold production late April/early May 2011;
3. Gold production after commissioning will come online at a rate of about 6,000 ozs per month;
4. Operating costs are sub US$400/oz;
5. Operating margins per month will be huge;
6. Mapawa drilling will carry on without any hindrance due to high cash reserves!
Whether the Chairman has some baggers or not, RED is going to be a cash cow in 6 months time from cash flows! Its got a stack of cash now as well!

Is that first 1 million Bid at 17 cents today the forerunner of support from the insto's coming back online after the AGM voting has been finalised?

JP Morgan - Another very credible group have come onto the RED register with 73.48 million shares at 5.75% equity. Its becoming a real club for big investment houses!

Now lets see where this takes us all - I am sure JP Morgan is not going to sit idly by with this relatively small stakeholding, particularly as it closes on the commissioning period in the coming months!

And in the meantime I picked up a few more at 17c

But, no more of that - upwards from here on end RED!

There has been quite a bit of crossings going on in the past hour (including Bot trades), the early trading was rarely crossings - i state this only because of a question from CEB2 about the 600,000 trade, it was also a crossing - thus took precedence over the other bids in the queue. (Did you note that Moit, lol?).