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VAU - Vault Minerals

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Hi all RED club members. Kash, its great to see your still hanging in there, i dare say you will be rewarded. Parle, sorry to here you have decided to move on, but good luck with your future endevours...

On another matter in regards to the second tranche, i too will be voting NO, and so will my father. I disagree entirely, i don't see why it is needed and why should the instos get them at a premium discount to the current sp when theres the smaller guys still buying at 19.5/20 cents. But it guess does make sense if it is a comfort factor like AB says, something for management to fall back on perhaps...

Anyway ill be out for a few days, GO RED
 
Hi Moit, I agree with your line of thinking, including the second tranche of placement funds, and maybe we can use this (and HC) as a means to thrash out this issue of what the smaller shareholder should consider with the vote they are empowered with.
One thing that should also be considered, that I haven't really expanded on yet, is that since the gold pre-payment remains subject to due diligence before its completed, then of course we have to wait to see if RED announces completion of that funding first. Whilst the gold price in Aussie dollars has not changed much, in US$ it has come down considerably. I wonder if that offer also is conditional on the gold price being within a certain range before first drawdown.
Naturally IF the pre-pay did not become available due to the final conditions not being met, then we all would have to agree that the second tranche of funds should definitely be taken up as it provides the surety for development of Siana and drilling for Mapawa etc. (OF course I don't understand why it had to be in total a US$75 million funding of prepay plus placement when originally it only had to be US$40 million).

I hope the insto's do the right thing and prove to us in the meantime why they should be getting the second tranche by pushing the share price up again. IF they do that then I can understand the benefits of having them more committed and involved on the register. In a way its like OUR due diligence on them getting the vote, to observe what they can do for us in the lead up to the vote! Come on guys get on your bikes, show us what your worthy of in pushing up RED . . .
 
I can see RED holding about this price now til we either get some news on Mapawa (when there could be a rush of blood), or if gold went crazy in coming weeks. There certainly has been some more bullish commentaries on gold that I have seen, even after gold has come off its highs, so that possibility of gold testing its record high is not off the cards completely.

But RED has got its own story, and it will depend very much on how the insto's want to play their hand, whether they seek absolute surety that they get their cheap second placement or not, depending on how we vote at the AGM.

The news anticipated for RED coming out this week must include
the Quarterly Report (due out no later than this week otherwise suspension till its released!) - it will surely confirm ongoing development work on Siana and status of contracts, although hopefully it gives more information on Mapawa drilling status, and I presume give an update on the Sprott due diligence re the prepayment loan (US$25 million). Its essential that this loan is finally granted to RED to give us all the option of deciding whether we should vote yes or no on the second placement.

As I have said every now and then, each day that goes by is 1 day closer to that first gold pour, the line has now been drawn in the sand. That also implies each day gone by is one day closer to the ever expectant move closer towards fundamental value for Siana being realised. Thus 30+ cents is just around the corner, shame we can't speed up the process a tad!
 
I got some RED paperwork in the mail last night, including the voting forms. I will be voting 'no' to the second tranche also - most disappointment with the share price over the last couple of days.
 
Hi RADV, just before you make your final decision on whether you decide to vote YES or NO can I suggest you wait to see that RED confirms it has received the final unconditional offer of gold pre-payment loan to Sprott? Until that happens we will not be sure that the entire funding arrangement is sufficient for RED to complete development of Siana. Hopefully Sprott will sign off and provide those funds shortly, but until its done we need to ensure RED gets the funds either by way of loan or placement.

In regards to current share price, for me its just going along with the ride as we can't have any impact on what the insto's want to do with the price.

The EXCITING for me though is the POSSIBILITY of a takeover coming out of the blue - if you will note that there has been an increase in the level of takeovers/mergers in the gold/base metals scene the past couple of weeks. Surely RED, being completely undervalued will be under the radar at present of some group such as a KCN (they have just acquired a minnow in LRC).
 
we seem to have more bot trading going on forcing the price down as well as heavy dumper early on. Someone not trying too hard (in the wake of weaker buyers) to cap the SP nearer to the magical 17c mark
 

Very wise you are Beatle , and if the funds are required then that may justify the discounted sp and increase in shares. But, as I think you have said in a previous post, the instos must add value.

As a recent member of the RED family, I will take on board all recommendations from our learned ASF members, but at this point I lean heavily to 'no'. A lot can happen in three weeks - will wait and see.
 

Rick64, so why did you buy? If you can't answer that, then that's maybe where you went wrong! Ever heard the term "don't put all your eggs in one basket?". It's called Position Sizing and I believe it would be in your best interest to do a bit of reading on that subject. Some technical analysis skills wouldn't hurt either. I'm not a technical analyst by a long shot, but my 'opinion' is that it's currently ivo the end of a Wave 4 using elliot wave theory. It 'should' (here's hoping!!) reverse from today's low of 18c or thereabouts and move upward to a value of around 23-26c. Wave 5 can be difficult to determine. If it breaks significantly below today's low of 18c I will be getting out quickly.
When you got in at 21c it was testing new highs that it hadn't seen for over 6 years. It's hit a bit of resistance but 'should' (here's hoping again!!) push through that level on its next attempt over the next week or two.
MC ;-)
 

Beatle it would very much out of the blue if there were a take over.
You'd think the sovereign risk would be enough to put off any take over thoughts especially with other less riskier ones around.
Red looks to be doing just as the word suggest going in the red. Down to 17.5c.atm.
Question now is at what point do i re enter?
 
Hi Mgm1a, its interesting to see the trading today, and that "heavy dumper" as you call it.

I presume the dump was someone who couldn't take the pain of watching this fall down from its recent high - it being forced to this share price by insto's who clearly have a much longer sighted view of RED and don't really mind a couple days (or weeks) at a subdued level.

Strangely enough, I'm too numb from any day by day events in RED share price to feel the pain except that in fact am now I'm getting excited with a thought to buy some more! Its almost time for that and then I will be able to appreciate how it feels to be like an insto (lol!).
 
Haha - Hi Jancha, if you read my post that I was preparing as you sent yours through, that's exactly how I feel now, I'm getting my appetite back for more too!

I don't believe that the sovereign risk of the Philippines is an issue for some of the companies who might be seeking such an acquisition, even on the ASX - for example KCN who has just announced its intention to gobble up LCR has Thailand as its first destination, hardly a safer country with the recent civil unrest. North American miners don't share the same view as some Australian companies in that regard, and I suggest that I would rather be in the Philippines for its risk profile than many of the African nations, such as Congo etc, and has no more risk than Indonesia.
 
I'm very disappointed that RED didn't weaken just a tad more, to allow a bit more chance to get shares at 17 cents yesterday before it bounced back to 18 cents. At 17 cents I believe its in the buy zone, and you won't be disappointed with that as an entry or top up price!

As I have mentioned many times previously RED is now in the hands of the insto's and so you have to expect that the ride will be in their hands completely, us smaller shareholders have no capacity to influence the share price, it depends upon how they want to play the game, even when announcements are made, its up to the insto's as to how things will go - BUT with the realisation that RED is going UP!!!

That's my view anyway.
 
by todays trading and the depth looks like it's about to go oin another run up.....upward pressure has to mount as time ticks away......the fear will be in missing out.......sell at your own perils.
 
Come on RED, stay down a few more months, my TRF hasn't yet done anything so I can't really justify buying back in with the same capital! :

Even though I no longer hold I'm still a believer in RED, she won't last too long around these prices before heading towards that long awaited intrinsic value of 30's. Good luck to current holders I don't think you'll have to wait too long.

 
fastbuck1 said:
by todays trading and the depth looks like it's about to go oin another run up.....upward pressure has to mount as time ticks away......the fear will be in missing out.......sell at your own perils.
Click to expand...

Resisted the urge to get out at 19 today for a quick 7%. Let's hope the market pumps some life into it tomorrow.
 
Hi AKB and other RED Club members.

I think back to my first experience with its predecessor Greenstone and my first purchase of its shares was to get the temptation of a quick profit as it moved from around 2.8 cents to 3.5 cents. I was in the same boat as you AKB, but the following days it went back to 2.5 cents! Haha. BUT that was 1997 (or 1998, can't recall exactly now), and times have changed.

As I have commented on before, be aware that RED will swing wildly now and its all a matter of riding those swings if you want the real upside, as the jockey is not us smaller investors, its the BIG insto's that want to take our shares before pushing it much higher!

I heard a commentary on Fox Business last night from 2 technical commentators (the Chartist and someone called Gary from another stock outfit using charts) when asked the question of RED's current share price and its chart. BOTH were of the opinion RED is a surprisingly liquid stock for a share trading around the 20 cents mark, and whilst its recent trading range is quite large with a volatility of 5.6% (I think that's what he said) provided it stays at 17.0 cents or above, it remains a share on an uptrend. I got a lot of positive vibes from them about their technical analysis, hopefully others watching the show also got the same feelings!

They were not told and didn't seem to know that also the fundamentals of its Siana gold project suggest a valuation almost double its current price, that its got a huge amount of cash in hand at present, and that its got some of the most respected resources funds management groups on its register at present!
 
Just to keep myself amused whilst watching the game being played on RED trading I thought I would copy some interesting comments made elsewhere (HC):

Inaflap...

"Still love to know how do they trade/accumulate without treading on each others toes

Do the Top 10 have each others phone numbers and take turns or what - Gentlemans agreement ?

Because if they all were as keen to accumulate as their respective portfolios suggest and their uptake in SPP @ 15c and 17c

They would blow the SP out of the water fighting each other to increase market share.

Lets face it they know what they got and are infinitely more patience than the usual mug punter"

I had a laugh when I read this post, its got some very interesting and funny questions within, I would also love to know the answers, and then we have a new poster today (with an interesting name!) that maybe could decipher the Da Vinci code (lol)...

Pauline69...
"Every time there is a run of sales like this today, have a look and you will see that it starts with one figure, then each descending quantity after that, is the previous figure divided by 4. It really is a game.
18 1 12:02
18 3 12:02
18 13 12:02
18 53 12:02
18 212 12:02
18 847 12:02
18 3,388 12:01 "

Then Bsredojie...
"Someone pulled the plug on Bots for the last hour.Did any human trade this stock today? It seems to me machine vs machine."

Just to answer the last question Bsredojie, yes there was some human intervention, I have bought a few more this morning! (And I am human, lol).

I also wonder what this trading is about, whether its a shuffling between players, but certainly minimal crosses in the trading so far today despite more than 5 million going through. It must be good for chartists eventually, you would have to call it accumulating at a base level, wouldn't you?
 
Has anyone any thoughts on the upcoming QEII announcement due out next Wednesday? There are a few market commentators out there heralding a downsized heli-drop by Bernanke. Looking at the current gold chart tells me the market may already be pricing that in. If that's the case you'll probably find a pullback in RED's SP leading up to the decision (and then a spike either way on the outcome). So maybe some of us here will get that buying opportunity in the next several trading days. Any thoughts?
 
Hi Hurricane, I agree that most economic commentators believe that QE2 will be downsized from the previous market expectations of around US$1 trillion to maybe minimal (IF ANY!), and that has been the main catalyst (according to others) in the stronger US dollar recently and drop in gold price. I think thats already been factored into the market, both generally and for RED.

I would add that in A$ terms the gold price has not come off nearly as much, as the A$ has also slid, being converse to US$ naturally.

To therefore suggest that RED will come off as a consequence though is a bold statement, I believe all the latest trading in RED has little to do with the gold price, I believe its more related to the jockeys riding this thing up and down, ie the insto's playing their games.

Of course if you don't hold now then you may get the chance to buy at a lower price, but I wouldn't be putting in bids lower than 17.0 cents (dare I put a jinx on it, lol!). I believe that 18.0 cents is still ok when the price upwards could be double, so that is why I bought more today.

Good luck to all looking at entering it lower, though.
 
well beatle been following you and all others in his thread still buying my average is now 20.5 but am acummilating as I can with my limtied funds. I hope to make this my retirement fund as I only have 20yrs work ;left in me thanks for all the info guys
 
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