Hi All at the RED clubhouse, what a great day, and I'm so happy to see so many more, and new posters. I believe that strength is in numbers, it gives us another semi-quantitative indicator to how a share is going, and clearly there has been a substantial increase in posts and posters in RED in recent times, both here at ASF and elsewhere.
I would like to make a very general comment about the trading today in RED before following up specifics with various of the posters.
Like some of the longer shareholders in RED I have at times watched the trading intently, esp of course when there has been sufficient action to keep me awake and when I have not had to do some housechores directed by the boss of the household (Hmmm!).
Those observations have given me a fairly good idea of how trading has changed over the years, and how the more recent trading patterns have developed with the involvement of much bigger trades (insto's presumably) and the innovative BOTS (that I still am not sure of other than knowing it probably requires a serious player to have one invoked on their behalf!). Of course you have to also recognise that RED, with a fairly hefty number of quoted shares approaching 1 billion, means that its not easy to influence the movement of RED share price, unless you are a bigger player with much bigger wallet. So someone like me and other retail traders &/or shareholders rarely can influence the movement, just follow it.
There have been others observe the trading patterns of RED in say the past year or so, and have even used the term "manipulation" to describe the activity. Whilst that might be inferred to be a sinister activity, I don't see it that way at all, I get heartened when I see it as I know there is an intent by a serious player to try to weaken the resolve of smaller shareholders to drop their stock. So provided you are aware of that, then its a sign to me that there is more activity in RED trading around the corner and the indication is that over the following days/weeks its likely that RED will be moving up based on strong buying signals. I see those observations as in a way being synomymous to "hand to mouth technical analysis of the trades", except I'm not using charts, I'm watching the actual trades.
Today about an hour to the end of trading was most instructive for me, and it was documented with some of my posts that you can refer to above. I'm of the view that there was a deliberate attempt to try to coerce some weaker holders (possibly shorter term day traders etc) to drop stock, by forcing the price lower. (I refer to the crossing of 50,000 shares in one parcel at 19.5 cents). About 10 minutes after I posted that, shares began to trade again at 20 cents, and soon thereafter the whole of the 20 cents shares on offer were taken out.
Then at the close, there was some fairly strong bidding to keep RED at 20.5 cents. I was heartened by this plus the crossing action, and I believe that there is no doubt some bigger player trying to get a lot more stock at present, but they have met with a fair degree of seller reluctance to drop shares downwards, only to meet at the same level or higher price. I feel that so long as people are aware of that, then they won't make it easy for the buyer to get the stock at this current level. I can see that time is on our hands, as each day is a day closer to RED making an announcement on funding which could well and truly change the RED share price (upwards) forever!
Now, yes Anderbond, you are quite right, I didn't see your post, as I was posting at the same time and therefore it didn't show in my window at all until you pointing it out just then. And wow, what a post, short as it might be, its full of information. Is this your 3rd hand source? If DB are still there then its a good outcome, as obviously we all prefer a debt funding provided the terms and conditions are reasonable and if there is any equity component its not excessive or lowly priced! If we get some mix of debt plus equity we can assume a valuation for Siana somewhere between the 40 cents and 34 cents valuation based on debt only and equity only scenarios I have described elsewhere. Thats a good starter for RED seeing that does not include anything other than Siana. Thus your comment about Mapawa being about 10 times the size of Siana is all bonus!!! But I hope there is some difference in timing between the funding and Mapawa, as it would be good to get a re-rating on Siana alone for starters.
I welcome your post Kash, about your future view on investment in RED, and its more in line with mine, but I admit that I expect to hold my RED for longer than first production as I believe that Mapawa will take longer to derive considerable value with the mine opening being a priority for RED over the next few months.
Rick, most appreciative of your comments, and if you have learned anything plus made some cash from RED its a great result. I do feel like we can all support each other with regards to either information or whatever for the common cause of increasing our knowledge of our investments in RED, although of course you must take full responsibility for your own investment decisions. And with your comments about you having about 8 other specs plus RED and wonder whether you should consolidate your investment with it all in RED. Well I'm sure most would say, firstly don't put more than what you can afford to lose in spec stocks, and the other thing is the argument that diversification is safer in case something goes belly up. Not sure how that helps you at all, or even me, as to be honest my biggest investment now by far is RED, with probably about 90% of my spec investments in RED - but due to me extreme bias I don't even consider RED as a spec nowadays, for me its a dead cert, so I'm not a good person to advise you. I believe that spec stock picking is all about trusting management, and having confidence in the assets. I do with RED, except RED management are awfully conservative which means they are never going to set the world on fire with news and speed of delivery - both very frustrating for shareholders, except RED has got the goods in terms of it being a laggard and therefore we have been able to buy RED shares at a price much cheaper due to that under-performance in the past. I think those times are now numbered with the change in the shareholdings. (I haven't answered your question about your other specs vs RED, and you have to be more asking yourself the question why you bought them and is the situation now the same as it was when you bought them).
Hi ParleVousFrancais, you did state that intention in your webpage blog but I was not going to make a comment, preferring you to confirm it here. I see your strategy being a very reasonable and safe way to trade out of RED. Lets hope that it does achieve 25 cents pretty quickly though, then maybe you might change the exit price for the first 50%, lol - after all I won't have many of your shares to watch after you!
And yes I think we all agree with your Desjosie about hindsight, including wtang89. Even I, the most biased RED commentator, was not prepared to put another dollar into RED in the past few weeks as I believed we were to get an update about Siana development but nothing came. So I wondered if RED share price might go for a mini-drop back to 15 cents, just below where Yuyu had about 50,000 shares sitting at 15.5 cents, and assuming he didn't change his buy price we both missed out! In the end I am very happy with my existing holdings and will wait for the next big announcement with interest!
Anderbond, now you have got me more excited referring to Mapawa being 10 times the size of Siana, which is about right since I can see it being at least 100 million tonnes minimum if exploration continues as the first 6 holes of information, of course at a lower gold grade (but still very profitable grade with potentially around 3.5 million contained ozs of gold). Do you believe there will be news coming soon on Mapawa? Now back to your RED Anderbond, I hope you can see the sediment by the time you finish the bottle!