I think the Swissie could go either way , if it is pushed into any bidding area predetermined set and forget buy stops etc . , the chart below shows the trading channel , I expect it to break out of .
A lot is weighing on the Swissie , firstly UBS , after the stated previous writedowns , there's another $16/17 or 18B USD to be made up . That's a heavy weight for a currency to absorb , as a trader , I would be expecting a spout of weakness on anything the market hasn't built into the price or discounted . I see that 109 area as a ceiling , good resistance there from what I can observe . We could retest that , but I'm not expecting to much of a show past it , unless UBS manage to get a loan from their countrymen .
The 1.11 area looks like it was pulled up ....... twice . My Ockhams razor hat tells me there must be some good bids above that , in favour of the USD side of the equation . I'll pencil in that 109.8ish maybe 109.9ish as the top for the next run , it's a good 100 pip swing to 108.8's and there's always nicer numbers below it and traffic has tried to head that way recently .
Below 108.8's is the area I'd like to see revisited , as it opens up the previous high to be tested if strength continues . Before we get to trade to the bottom of that I expect POG will either retest it lower supports or break out to the upside as if it refuses to be pushed below the current nearest low .
If it retests , then ........... hello 1.11 area , if it breaks out mid 108s to high 107's for starters then we'll have to revisit the charts .
Inflation get's built into the price the in the days prior to when the data is released , the over shoots up or below the adjusted pricings corrects to a range acceptable on weighting . It just depends on what side you've taken in the market debate , unless you wait for the data prior to entry , when you should have been looking for signals before the data came out . I'd give the market a 7/10 for getting it right normally . It's the hidden messages that conflict with the facts already known to the market that causes upsets .