numbercruncher
Beware of Dropbears
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - A deepening U.S. housing slump has caused an alarming surge in job losses at U.S. financial services companies, and the end is nowhere in sight, consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said on Tuesday.
The industry has announced 87,962 job cuts so far this year, 75 percent more than the 50,327 recorded for all of 2006, Challenger said. Nearly one-fourth of this year's cuts have been announced in August alone.
Of this year's cuts, 35,830, or 41 percent, were tied to housing market troubles, including riskier subprime mortgages. Job cuts by real estate and construction firms totaled 21,620, more than twice the number for all of 2006, Challenger said.
Are you some kind of saddist NC? You into B&D? Are you seeing things objectively here, or are you just clinging on to all the bad news? Maybe you're seeing things straight, but you should be careful about what you're wishing for. I'm sure there is an agenda there somewhere.
“The pullback in the U.S. residential real estate market is showing no signs of slowing down,” says Robert J. Shiller, Chief Economist at MacroMarkets LLC. “The year-over-year decline reported in the 2nd quarter of 2007 for the National Home Price Index is the lowest point in its reported history, which dates back to January 1987. On a regional level 17 of the 20 metro areas are showing declines in their annual growth rate from what was reported in May.”
During this cycle, Boston was the first metro area to report negative year-over-year returns, back in April 2006. In June 2007, Boston showed an improvement in its annual rate of decline from the value reported in May, –3.9% versus –4.3% reported in May. Boston has shown improvement since the beginning of the year, where its annual growth rate measured –5.5%. More data however, is needed to determine whether
Boston, whose growth rate turned negative before other metro areas, is truly the first metro area to turn around.
THE US sub-prime mortgage crisis has claimed its first Australian scalp with credit specialist Basis Capital putting one of its funds into provisional liquidation.
The Basis Yield Alpha Fund (Master), based in the Cayman Islands, has been placed into provisional liquidation, the liquidators, Grant Thornton, said today.
"At this stage we are undertaking an immediate assessment as to the financial position of the fund and any likely return to investors," Paul Billingham, one of the liquidators, said.
Gee unc. you would have to post the most pessimistic posts of all.I find it depressing so I better not read this thread.
(lol just jokin.)
Last year, there were 1.2 million foreclosure filings in the United States, up 42 percent from 2005, according to RealtyTrac, a firm that analyzes such data. At current rates so far this year, RealtyTrac expects foreclosure filings to hit two million in 2007, or roughly one per 62 American households ”” a rate approaching heights not seen since the Great Depression.
WASHINGTON - Construction activity plunged in July by the biggest amount in six months as spending on homes fell for a record 17th straight month.The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that construction spending dropped 0.4 percent in July, compared with June, the weakest showing since a 0.6 percent fall in January.
It was a bigger drop than economists had been expecting and underscored the continued drag the severe slump in housing is having on building activity.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20585575/
The next phase - Structural Unemployment. Unemployment data is due to be released Friday US time and indications are that it will not be positive as the effects from the housing bust continue to cascade down through the economy. The first lay-offs ware mortgage brokers, then real estate agents, then home builders, now suppliers to home builders. The one bit of good news is that non residential construction is still healthy, although it usually lags the more volatile residential data.The meltdown in the mortgage market caused the biggest drop on record in August for pending home sales, taking the index down to the lowest level since the month that included the September 11 2001 terrorist attacks. The U.S. housing market showed signs of major disruption in July, with a 12.2% monthly decline in contract signings on existing homes -- the largest drop since the pending homes sales index started in 2001, the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday. The index hit its lowest level since September 2001, and pending sales were 16.1% below their year-earlier level. The July data reflect trends before August's mortgage meltdown.
Hiring has slowed or seized up at many firms including Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Citigroup Inc. where 17,000 job cuts were announced in the spring. And more layoffs loom in many areas in the investment- banking industry in the wake of the August credit crunch, particularly in businesses such as credit trading and structured products, analysts and job recruiters predict. At the very least, bonus season looks a lot tougher this year on Wall Street and in The City in London.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={019FFB06-E822-4EA0-9BE8-B48B97F54FA6}
There you go, I though house prices always went up...
Countrywide plans to slash up to 12,000 jobs
The mortgage lender also says loan originations will be 25% lower in 2008.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/07/real_estate/countrywide_cuts/index.htm
This analyst is on another planet? Dead cat bounce? Trough?The National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index in August fell 6.5 per cent to 85.5, a record low. The index has fallen 21.5 per cent in the past 12 months.
Economists expected a fall of 2.1 per cent after July registered a 12.2 per cent decline.
“This renewed deterioration in pending sales activity suggests another leg down for sales in coming months,” said TJ Marta, fixed income strategist at RBC Capital Markets. “In turn, the renewed downturn should weigh on prices and personal consumption.”
But the news failed to reverse a two-day surge in homebuilder stocks prompted by a note from Citi Investment Research, which said it was time to buy into sector weakness.
Economist predicted a fall of 2% but it came in at 6.5%.....mmmm finger on the pulse there.“While we don’t expect any of the homebuilders to move much lower over the near-term, we expect the larger-cap builders and those with the strongest balance sheets to benefit most from any near-term bounce – much as they did coming out of the 1990 trough,” Stephen Kim, an analyst, noted.
Two U.S. banks have failed in recent weeks, partly because of losses on subprime mortgages, according to regulators. Miami Valley Bank of Lakeview, Ohio, was closed by state regulators and NetBank Inc. of Alpharetta, Georgia, became the first U.S. savings and loan to fail in three years last month.
Washington Mutual Inc., the biggest U.S. savings and loan, said third-quarter profit fell about 75 percent after the worst housing slump in 16 years caused more borrowers to default.
The horrible delinquencies we're seeing won't turn into horrible losses for at least another year,'' said Mark Adelson, a mortgage consultant at Adelson & Jacob Consulting LLC in New York. ``The alarm is going off from the detector on the ocean floor, but the tsunami hasn't hit the shore yet.
Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank, said earlier this week that profit for the quarter fell 60 percent after $5.9 billion of credit and trading losses on loans and mortgage-backed securities. The losses are the biggest reported so far by the world's top banks and securities firms.
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