I'm happy about that. I don't might Merv... for a central banker that is.here's one..
King Reappointed as BoE Governor for 5 More Years Reuters
So the Dow rally lasted about an hour, now up only 100 points. Have to drop rates another 1% tomorra maybe.
TAlk about stuff everything up, I can no longer believe what is happening.
Was someone talking about beer the other day, looking good
We truly have entered The Twilight Zone; of that there is no question.
Just read about a CNBC report by a "T.V analyst" that came out late in the US session saying CNBC have learned that Wall Street bond rating agencies are poised to downgrade both Ambac Financial Group and MBIA even though NY state regulators would like to get a hold until they can fully develop a bailout package. According to the CNBC report, barring some last minute agreement on a bailout package, the downgrades could come as early as Wednesday US time.
Other analysts analysing the analysts analysis say that the CNBC talking head covering the story has been very busy pushing his barrow very hard being extremely negative towards the prospect of a bail-out saving the bond insurers from down-grades and say that their analysis indicates it is unlikely that a down-grade will occur while the NY state regulator is still trying to negotiate a package.
Meanwhile, Ambac shares blithely rose over 25% yesterday, ...
Cheers
.........Kauri
and that pesky CNBC analyst needs to see his analyst... the Fed announced a 50 BP rate cut and issued a dovish statement. The Fed move was initially greeted with cheer by Wall Street with the Dow up 185 points at one stage. The commodity markets moved higher and all was looking great .
The mood suddenly changed when a CNBC reporter said that two major US bond insurers were about to be down-graded and it could happen as early as today. US stocks promptly found reverse gear..
Following the problems with the Northern Rock, uncertainty has hit
Japan, the origami bank has folded. Sumo bank has gone belly up, the
Bonsai bank has cut some of its branches. The Karaoke bank is up for
sale and going for a song, while shares in the kamikaze bank have
nosedived. 500 staff at the Karate bank got the chop and there is
something fishy going on at the Sushi bank where staff expect a raw
deal.
On top of all that bad news Japanese Banks in serious trouble
Following the problems with the Northern Rock, uncertainty has hit
Japan, the origami bank has folded. Sumo bank has gone belly up, the
Bonsai bank has cut some of its branches. The Karaoke bank is up for
sale and going for a song, while shares in the kamikaze bank have
nosedived. 500 staff at the Karate bank got the chop and there is
something fishy going on at the Sushi bank where staff expect a raw
deal.
Focus
Comptroller Dugan Expresses Concern About Commercial Real Estate Concentrations
Comptroller of the Currency John C. Dugan told a bank conference today that the OCC is focusing increased attention on problems arising from high community bank concentrations in commercial real estate (CRE) at a time of significant market disruptions and declining house and condominium sales and values.
“The combination of these conditions is putting considerable stress on one particular category of commercial real estate lending: residential construction and development – and other categories of CRE loans will feel similar stress if general economic activity slows materially,” Mr. Dugan said in a speech before a meeting of the Florida Bankers Association.
In the area of construction and development (C&D) loans, nonperforming loans in community national banks amounted to 1.96 percent of the total at the end of the third quarter, double the rate of the year before.
“Although starting from an admittedly very low baseline, an increase like this – over 100 percent in a single year – is clearly a trend that we need to monitor closely,” Mr. Dugan said.
...
In recent years, the Comptroller said, banks had become too complacent regarding the potential for significant stresses in these markets, and CRE concentrations rose significantly in many banks. The ratio of commercial real estate loans to capital has nearly doubled in the past six years, he said.
“Even more significant than this overall industry statistic is the number of individual banks that have especially large concentrations,” Mr. Dugan added. “Over a third of the nation’s community banks have commercial real estate concentrations exceeding 300 percent of their capital, and almost 30 percent have construction and development loans exceeding 100 percent of capital.”
...
“In terms of asset quality, our horizontal reviews have indeed confirmed a significant increase in the number of problem residential construction and development loans in community banks across the country,” the Comptroller added.
Does a company deserve your highest Triple A rating whose stock price has declined 90%, has cut its dividend, is scrambling to raise capital, completed a partial financing at 14% interest (now trading at a 20% yield one week later), has incurred losses massively in excess of its promised zero-loss expectations wiping out more than half of book value, with Berkshire Hathaway as a new competitor, having lost access to its only liquidity facility, and having concealed material information from the marketplace?
As always, my 5c worth. The internet means we are all entitled to our amateurish rants. For what it is worth, I do not believe any posters on this forum are arrogant. It is great to get such a divergent range of opinions backed up by a variety of 'facts & figures' that are widely and impeccably sourced. It is always enjoyable locking horns with this motley ASF crue.
Anyway I am off to the pub for a parma and a beer. Good balmy night for it here in Melbourne.
It is always enjoyable locking horns with this motley ASF crue.
Maybe but have this ASF lot sold 45 million albums, had numerous brushes with the law, laid beautiful women and snorted cocaine every night?
I haven't listened to the U-Tube thingo Dhukka , ever actually , first visit to facebook the other day .
But I use the Case - Schiller index numbers as a main part of one set of equations . It will show sentiment towards home improvements etc etc and a few more indusries attached . I must admit I don't the "R" word is appropriate , although the mention severe suits . But I think they should have gone one further and comeout and relayed what really happened after each housing bust prior and can't see why it wouldn't now . The financial sectors getting caught out really has only exacerbated the markets problems .
It has now got a credibility problem to clean up , for global investors with risk appetite , that's largely Asia and US instos and of course some of that hot moneyit's easier to bring money home to play with quickly , as in the US , the Asian part is to get returns of a currency that has appreciated nearly 14% over a short period of years , not worth much really , but it's a reserve currency and fear sends players back to reserve currencies , when they been out playing the field , the appreciation hitting the carry trade forces them to look deeper than just high yield bonds etc. It not just about Japanese houswives either , you and I both know that , half of Europe has jumped on the yield wagon on mortgages and personal loans , now seeing that great plan ruined by a period of unwinding , a forced period of re-participation and probably a lot more pain ahead if the Yen ever got to reach it's true technical level ( not fundamental ) . The will be a series of further mortgage problems globally , my bet is Schiller knows this too . Wait for the Swissie to break a few loans backs , costing borrowers dearly . American mortgages of higher classes are in some Swissies , those mansions are getting expensive to keep , thank heavens movie stars and pop stars have money too burn hey .....
- NEW YORK (AP) - The chief financial officer of homebuilder KB Home exercised options for and sold 80,000 shares of stock, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing Friday.
In a Form 4 filed with the SEC, Domenico Cecere reported he exercised options at $21.51 apiece and sold the shares for $27.51 apiece on Jan. 31.
- Homebuilders, which in recent months had come off their lows after investors fled housing-related investments, lost ground Monday. Lennar Corp. fell $1.28, or 6 percent, to $20.12, while KB Home fell $2.42, or 8.4 percent, to $26.33.
- Residential construction dropped in the fourth quarter by the most in 26 years, making the housing recession the worst since 1982.
The National Association of Realtors will report on Feb.7 that its index of pending home sales decreased 1 percent, after falling 2.6 percent in November, according to the Bloomberg survey median.
Consumer spending may provide less support to the economy as property values fall and the unemployment increases.
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