Looks like mortgage insurers are already getting marked down. This puts every credit default swap at risk, $45trillion as the next leg of the derivative mountain melts.
This is from the guy who was called "Mr Gold" in the 70s by the WSJ, got out on the day gold peaked at $887.5 in Jan 1980, said gold will be in a bear market for 15yrs in an article entitled "Gold Bull takes off his Horns" in the WSJ, and called $1650 gold in 2001 with intermediate targets of $450, $527, $680, $887. Now he says he may be way too low.
From
http://www.jsmineset.com
Posted On: Friday, January 18, 2008, 6:29:00 PM EST
The End of a Powerful Week in Finance
Author: Jim Sinclair
Thursday the Chairman of the Federal Reserve expressed his support for a significant fiscal and monetary stimulus as a preemptive strike against a U.S. recession. The market answered by dropping over 300 points. Today the President of the U.S. broadly outlined a non-specific plan for economic stimulation. After the Administration's plan for $150 billion of economic stimulation was made public, the DOW closed almost 60 points lower. The result of the Bernanke/Adminstration fiscal and monetary stimulus is a total Dow decline of 479 points, according to my calculations.
Nothing said by either luminary addresses the problem, including those that developed this afternoon by the downgrade of the debt of Ambac, one of the four major bond insurers, MBIA, MGIC and similar companies dealing in OTC Default Derivatives. Should S&P and Moody take similar action, which is expected, two trillion in debt should also be downgraded. The downgrade of the debt of the guarantor must impact the debt they have guaranteed. So the two trillion is debt that may well and should be downgraded now is another domino of titanic size.
This afternoon's problems are new and their size says both Kings Are Wearing No Clothes" with respect to their presentations of Thursday and today.
The general equities market must be calmed. Should the Dow crater, another major domino falls. Let's see how the PPT (Price Protection Team) brings the Dow in Tuesday morning in pre U.S. trading and then how Tuesday closes. The DOW better be higher each day than the indices are before U.S. trading or as the last two days demonstrated, the PPT has lost its tight control of the equities markets. Watch the pre-open indices and closing Dow very closely.
If the equity markets cannot be calmed then:
- Recognize this is the Formula happening like everything else much sooner and much bigger in its implications than anticipated.
- Gold will rise to $1650 as an almost immediate effect of what will be done to attempt to fend off a total panic starting to take place in general equities, therein threatening to be followed by all credit markets of all kinds.
- The funds and hotshot short term traders in gold shares will be killed by the upward explosion of the gold price about to occur.
- The PPT and the Fed will step out of gold’s way because gold is one of the tools used in 1930 by Roosevelt and in 2000 by Bush. It will be used again now on the upside.
- Gold is the only insurance there is against what all this means because a panic in equities will blow the financial system, already coming apart, to smithereens.
- All country funds would shut down on any further investments in "at the wall" financial institutions.
- The rollover in credit and default derivatives would exceed the entire foreign debt of the USA.
- The rest of the $450 trillion dollar mountain of derivatives would start a disintegration like nothing you have every seen in your lifetime.
- Consumer demand would slam shut.
The auto industry might as well go into liquidation this coming Monday, avoiding the June 2008 rush.
- The US dollar would burn a hole in the floor going directly to .5200 or lower.
As the dollar disintegrates gold would rocket to and through $1650 in days.
The markets for general equities would all have to institute total trading halts every 100 points on the downside for 30 minutes each.
- All commercial call loans would be called.
All debtors one day late on any payment, lacking grace period, would be liquidated. All debtors over one day of the grace period would be liquidated.
It is clearly visible to anyone with eyes or a mind to think that the PPT has lost all semblance of control in the equity markets and will soon in all remaining markets.
- The commercial paper credit market which is almost dead will die totally.
Should no emergency action take place soon, you will see an old fashioned panic of the 1929 variety.
- Just as emotional fools sell gold and gold shares, be assured that more emotional general equity fools will unload and bring the averages down more than ever in history in one day.
- Recognize this is the Formula happening like everything else much sooner and much bigger in its implications than anticipated.
- Emergency action will be all splash and theatrics but truthfully the cat is out of the bag. It buys some time but corrects nothing. It makes the Formula 100% correct.
- There now must be EMERGENCY ACTION because the Chairman of the Fed has BOMBED OUT PUBLICLY and a PANIC is about to occur. Expect EMERGENCY ACTION in days, not weeks.
If you have not protected yourself, you may only have days to do so. Protection amounts to a simple act: As much as possible eliminate financial agents between you and your assets. Own gold or equivalents equal to one half of your liquid net worth. Then you insure your entire net worth. Do not have margin debt. If you have debt you must own gold fully paid equal to that debt to insure it.