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US mortgage carnage

How low can US Housing go?

 

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Credit card CDOs are not merely going to explode , they are going to disintergrate .

With the 07 list of writedowns coming to an end , it's the 08 continuation of the downhill run , which will really shock onlookers .

The list has just about every big name on it , this means they will be looking for alternate revenues to bolster the ledgers , we can forget the share markets , they won't offer anything close to what is needed .

So what will they all be looking at or start getting into ?

FOREX is my bet .

This is a $3 Trillion market and it will grow larger now as it is the new ( to them ) area , where money flows are attractive enough to spend billions getting into it .

The move looks obvious to me , so much so I'd say a blind dog on crutches could see it a mile off .
 
PS... I don't see any Central Bank or President in a rush to save ARM option mortgage owners , the move looks more inclined to be supportive of land price as a matter of policy , the credibility of the loans themselves aren't actually being addressed , a little yell afar about fraud and yada yada ....

May sound like quiet little words to many , but it's more probable that it is many that it will effect , totally indiscriminate , rich or poor , happy or unhappy .

ARM options allowed those who chose them to make lower payments with an option to pay the debt off quicker . This is where the mansion crisis became a creation , even some smart money ..... cough cough cough has bitten too deep on the apple here .

They are already having to make the higher repayments they didn't foresee , the average of these may critically be defined as 2 to 3 carders . This being allowed in my view , basically from their credit scores , which bloated the eyes beyond the ability of vision enough for them to take a high risk chance they really couldn't afford to take in the first place .
I'm not talking about the Mr and Mrs Average either , the structure of option ARM aims it fair square at Mr and Mrs Above Average , who will either have to make good on any equity built into the loan that will obviously be lost or go bust . If they go bust they may as well take the 2 to 3 cards with 'em as a logical choice for disposure .

The funny thing is this ......... they can't stick them all in gaol , it's an awfully long conspiracy list right down to the appraisal

If they did , with the combined acreage they might be able to make half a percent of what they need to make ethanol .
 
There appears to be a lot of companies reporting these days with "first time ever" losses. No end to the contagion as yet! Mortgage insurers next to feel the effects of the credit/risk aversion squeeze.

 
These are the charts for Merrill Lynch and Citi Group

Merrill has $10B in write downs , Citi around $22B

This may make Merrills look a tad better to some , but they're just figures and charts . I reckon the $10B will hurt Merrill more than the $22B will hurt Citi .

I can't wait to hear the gist of the spin they drag out now .
 

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Merrill has $10B in write downs , Citi around $22B

It would appear we have more problems on the horizon, more news articles of concern, credit cards paying more than 20% interest with rises to come ............

House equity maxed out, now Americans are being forced to max out Credit cards to cover the shortfall.




The money hasn`t disappeared, so where has the money pooled/settled and what or who is holding it? Any ideas anyone?
 
The money hasn`t disappeared, so where has the money pooled/settled and what or who is holding it? Any ideas anyone?


Sovereign Wealth funds of places like China, ME, Russia absolutely creaming it.

Hundreds of other entitys and Individuals joining club Billionaire throughout this crack up boom as well

Quite a funny situation really, Millions of people buy 100k houses for 200k while earning $5 an hour, all the excess gets blown on consumerism and bridging the gap between earnings and spendings, and now the partys over everyone is left scratching their heads confused about how to pay the bills and those left holding the Green stuff watch it evaporate on a daily basis, kinda like magic really
 
Some may suggest its a multi Generational plan by the Illuminati coming into fruition ..... Ive read stranger things



http://www.biblebelievers.org.au/slavery.htm
 
The money hasn`t disappeared, so where has the money pooled/settled and what or who is holding it? Any ideas anyone?

ABSOLUTELY!

It's called Debt to Equity. When you are putting the deals together as an insider at all manner of levels ie. from the mortgage brokers to the CDO deal-makers there are fees and commissions being charged. Debt is sold and the people who sell it are remunerated. The person at the end of the chain is the one left servicing the debt. The people who sold the debt along the chain and took their fees and commissions and secured their capital gains have built equity. Whether they used that equity to good effect regarding their own debt to equity ratios or whether they got caught up in the euphoria and went on to leverage themselves to the hilt is an individual and unknown factor. Those participants who were prudent are probably sitting pretty now with both increased equity, manageable debt, and low repayments locked in at low interest rates.

ASX.G

BTW, if the public TV meltdown by Kramer is anything to go by I'd suggest that a decent amount of the 'fat cats' involved were not prudent. Or they're just being greedy for greed's sake. It's always difficult to tell if they're squealing because they're really bleeding or whether if feels like they're hurt because they're not getting a free lunch anymore.
 
ABSOLUTELY!

The person at the end of the chain is the one left servicing the debt. The people who sold the debt along the chain and took their fees and commissions and secured their capital gains have built equity.

Thanx asx.g ....


I don`t have any formal training in economics.
 
Thanx asx.g ....

I don`t have any formal training in economics.

Maybe this will help explain it all. (I posted it on the gold thread too, but is relevant here too.)

Constant Obligation Leveraged Originated Structured Oscillating Money
Bridged Asset Guarantees


Investment Dealers are excited to announce the newest structured
finance product - Constant Obligation Leveraged Originated Structured
Oscillating Money Bridged Asset Guarantees, or COLOSTOMY BAGS. Designed to accommodate the most sophisticated investment strategies, Colostomy Bags contain the equity tranches of Structured High Interest Taxable Derivatives, or ****, and are leveraged an infinite amount of times through the innovative use of derivatives.

"Its an actively managed, unlimited liability, open ended investment
with no maturity date, which pays LIBOR plus 5,000 and has no correlation to
traditional investments" said a spokesman for the Investment Dealer who
engineered the product. "It's based on a CDO structure, but it's
designed to default BEFORE the first coupon payment, which you'll agree has no correlation with stodgy traditional investments and is a perfect fit for
portable alpha scams, er, strategies." Following the default, each month
more leverage is added to the structure to pay for the coupon and the
Dealer's fees which are set at 80%. "We feel the fees are reasonable,
given the adrenaline rush you'll get each month attempting to mark these."

The Colostomy Bags carry a AAAA rating, based on the rating agencies
opinion that they are even safer than Treasuries. "You can't use
traditional credit analysis to value these babies, no sir-ree" said a spokesman for a rating agency. "Just like Icelandic Banks, we give them the highest
rating because you just know that the Fed will bail out all the hedgies who buy these things..remember like Long Term Capital? And the best part is, the
beauty of this structure is that the loss given default is NEGATIVE, so
by extension we feel that the CDS will trade through Treasuries."

Inhaling deeply on a fatty, he continued "We've been tinkering with
our model, which served us well for Enron and the Telecoms in '02, and our
stress testing shows that the probability of loss in the senior tranche
is close to zero." The model, constructed of a wishing well, Joseph Jett's
trading blotter, and drawings of Unicorns then collapsed in a heap.
"Well, back to the drawing board!" he cackled.

A real money investor, huddled on the windowsill outside his office,
said he remained optimistic about holding the Colostomy Bags but was a bit
concerned with the 95% decline in value on the first day they traded.
"We've taken a bit of a haircut on these but I'm waiting to see the first
servicer report, which should arrive in a few months. At first I was annoyed that the dealer who sold them to me refused to make a market in them, but that makes my job easier since I'm not tempted to sell."

We located a hedge fund manager at a due diligence meeting in the VIP
room at Score's. He said he was skeptical of the structure at first but was
dared into buying it by a fixed income salesman. "He said to me, 'what's wrong
with you, its quadruple A rated, just buy it, what are you a pussy?' He
also said it was going into 'an index', although he didn't say which one, but
I felt that I had to buy it. And that was good enough for me, bro'."

I have no idea who is the author, but its certainly making the rounds!

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/commen...nt-obliga.html
 
Another one from USA now even prime housing loans is starting to get into problems because people has borrowed against their equity.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_04/b4068000575390.htm
 
How was WaMu's 4th Quarter? First quarterly loss since 1997. Non-performing assets ratio rose from 0.8% to 2.17% (it's not just subprime and Alt-A on the rise either) . Loan loss reserves have skyrocketed as shown below. The are expecting loan loss reserves to increase to between $1.8 - $2.0 billion in 1Q08. Nasty stuff.
 

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AAA reratings ???????


Bond-insurer woes may trigger more write-downs
Doubts on AAA ratings for Ambac, MBIA spark turmoil in muni bond market


By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Last update: 6:08 p.m. EST Jan. 18, 2008


SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Just when you thought it was over, trouble in the $2.3 trillion bond-insurance business could trigger another wave of big write-downs from banks and brokerage firms, experts said Friday.


'The destruction of the bond insurers would likely bring write-downs at major banks and financial institutions that would put current write-downs to shame.'
”” Tamara Kravec, Banc of America Securities



http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...-FB70-4304-B6B4-C444A554401C}&dist=TNMostRead
 

I think the Fed should be watching this film clip.....

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=625421280&play=1

For once in his life, Cramer has an incredibly smart proposal to clean up the mess - instead of a 150 Bil tax cut plan that will result in increased retail sales and further fuel inflation, remove the bond insurers....... Seems pretty logical to me, any views here?????

Cheers
 
Hmmm.... perhaps an ASF fan , are we winning him over , the perma bull has turned , yeeehaaa , we must at least be getting close to a bottom or something else really baaaad is coming .

Now tell him to go lobby Hilary to open a new handcuff manufacturer to employ thousands of Americans . I think there should be bounties for Wall Street and underWall Street members still free . We've got nothing to cheer about either . Stuff the waste sites , build a massive gaol instead ......... somewhere around Woomera
 

Cramer makes it sound simple and effective however I think it raises a number of issues. Firstly I think it's comparing apples to oranges by comparing the S&L /RTC bailout to today's mess. RTC was a depositors bailout but that's probably not the most important point.

It raises this whole idea of moral hazard, that these institutions are too big to fail. I find it amusing that these so-called free market capitalists want government intervention at the drop of a hat every-time something goes wrong.

But I have to confess my opinion is largely influenced by what I want to see happen. I actually want them to fail, and I want to see reverberations throughout the economy as a result. I want to see widespread panic and plunging stockmarkets. I also want to see institutions that employed floored business models punished for their greed and incompetence.
 
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