- Joined
- 17 January 2007
- Posts
- 2,986
- Reactions
- 33
MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:49 PM ET Mar 9, 2007
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Problems in the subprime mortgage business may be spreading to other parts of the home loan market.
Losses are creeping up on so-called Alt-A loans, which are considered less risky than subprime mortgages, but may have lower credit quality than "prime" loans.
That's sparked concern among investors in companies such as IndyMac Bancorp : Subprime mortgages are offered to lower-income borrowers with spotty credit records. The sector has descended into crisis recently as rising interest rates and stagnant home prices have left more borrowers struggling to meet monthly payments.
Alt-A loans were originally designed for borrowers with clean credit records, but with other issues that often meant they provided fewer documents or even no documents showing what they earned. These loans were attractive to mortgage investors because they offered higher yields than traditional "prime" home loans, but were underpinned by the cleaner credit records of the borrowers.
The popularity of Alt-A mortgages exploded in recent years. A record $400 billion of these loans were originated in 2006. They accounted for 13.4% of all mortgages offered last year, up from 2.1% in 2003, according to industry publisher Inside Mortgage Finance.
But as the Alt-A business grew, more of these loans were offered to less creditworthy borrowers, creating what Mark Adelson, head of structured finance research at Nomura Securities International, calls "Alt-B" products.
"The Alt-A market has absorbed and disguised a portion of the subprime space," he said. "You can debate how to define these loans, but many have ended up being an Alt-A product with subprime deficiencies."
Surging house prices earlier this decade are partly to blame, Adelson said.
When buyers realized they couldn't afford the home they wanted, they took out alternative mortgages that helped them pay the higher price. Alt-A mortgages requiring few documents - often called stated-income loans -- allowed buyers to inflate their earnings and get a bigger loan, he explained.
"In the past few years, Alt-A loans were made to weaker and weaker borrowers and the sector expanded downward along credit spectrum," he said. "In doing that, you draw up into the Alt-A space some of the problems that are affecting the subprime space."
Indeed, losses on Alt-A loans were already creeping up at the end of last year: 2.38% of Alt-A loans were at least 60-day delinquent in December, according to First American LoanPerformance, a unit of real estate data specialist First American : . That's the highest level since February 2004 and up from 0.93% in August 2005.
Data on Alt-A mortgages that have been packaged up and sold as mortgage-backed securities show the growing popularity of low-documentation and stated-income loans.
More than 80% of Alt-A mortgages that were securitized in 2006 were low-documentation, stated-income loans, according to Inside Mortgage Finance. That's up from 68% in 2005.
Data from LoanPerformance tell a similar story: 58% of all mortgages originated in the fourth quarter of 2006 were low-documentation loans. That was up from 21% at the start of 2000.
In California, which has seen some of the biggest gains in home prices this decade, 86% of all mortgages offered in the fourth quarter were low-documentation loans. That's up from 29% in early 2000, LoanPerformance data show.
Stocks hit
Concerns like these have hit the shares of Alt-A specialists.
IndyMac, the largest Alt-A mortgage lender, has slumped 32% so far this year. Impac, a smaller rival, is down almost 40%.
Michael Perry, chief executive of IndyMac, said earlier this month that the company's stricter underwriting standards have helped it avoid the heavy losses experienced in the subprime sector.
Still, he said he was disappointment with the outlook for 2007 and noted that IndyMac would keep costs under control to compensate.
Countrywide Financial shares have fallen 14% this year. About 15% of the company's mortgage origination in 2006 was Alt-A loans, lower than some rivals, according to Inside Mortgage Finance.
More than three quarters of the loans IndyMac originated last year were Alt-A mortgages. Over 90% of Impac's loans were Alt-A in 2006, Inside Mortgage Finance reported recently.
Even General Motors, the largest carmaker in the world, has been hit by Alt-A concerns. The company's mortgage finance business, Residential Capital Group, was the third-largest Alt-A originator in 2006. Almost half of all the mortgages the business originated last year were Alt-A loans, according to Inside Mortgage Finance.
GM Chief Executive Rick Wagoner admitted at the Geneva auto show on Wednesday that loans to high-risk customers have hurt the automaker's former financing unit, according to the Wall Street Journal.
GM shares are up more than 5% so far this year. However, the stock has dropped more than 15% since the middle of February.
Alistair Barr is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.
Smurf1976 said:I don't believe it. Can't be true. The bulls with a vested interest told us all that property only goes up...: : :
Loans to ``subprime'' borrowers -- people with blemished credit records or high debts -- are going sour at the highest level in at least seven years.
I don't believe it. Can't be true. The bulls with a vested interest told us all that property only goes up...
tech/a said:I really cant understand why there are not more balanced veiws on the whole economic landscape---from micro to macro.
Not for me. I'd just rather see investment in real productive industry instead of seeing people borrowing a fortune to pay double or triple for the exact same house.theasxgorilla said:Some widespread desire to see those that we think deserve it get their comeuppance. Or maybe perceiving someone elses misery makes us feel alright after all...a la "Today Tonight".
Smurf1976 said:Not for me. I'd just rather see investment in real productive industry instead of seeing people borrowing a fortune to pay double or triple for the exact same house.
The former is ultimately what builds a nation's economy. The latter is nothing more than the effects of inflation - it produces no real wealth whilst diverting investment from things that do.
Tech, I can certainly agree that in your situation investment in property has benefited you personally and ultimately others through business expansion.tech/a said:Really!
In my own microcosm of Industry,my "Good fortune" of investments in property gave me the confidence to expand into areas which were previously beyond my reach due to under capitalisiation.
The confidence of having asset (While un realised) as a security blanket and a strong base for lenders to underpin infrastructure expansion,lead to the employment of 5 more staff and growing.
Now multiply that by a few 1000 capitalists!
Smurf---I'm suprised that you have such a narrow veiw given your vocation.
Smurf1976 said:It comes down to one word IMO - "inflation". Inflation doesn't increase wealth but rather transfers it. Make the right decisions and you'll benefit personally but society as a whole doesn't gain. Speculators gain as do debtors. Savers and others lose. No increase in real wealth, just a change in the distribution.
Ben is fueling up the helicopter as we speak.Uncle Festivus said:The contagion reaches further - this will be big news - GM bail out by the fed maybe?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?