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The World is on the brink!

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kennas said:
I'm not sure how long this 'brink' will be but it's creeping up.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/wo...and-2014-present/story-fni0xs61-1226793586357
Click to expand...

The problem with that scenario is that China has never been an expansionary power. The Europeans all were. Really, European wars were more like family feuds, given how inbred they all were.

Plus, America still has such a huge military advantage over everyone else, an advantage that far outstrips Britain's advantage over Germany in 1914. China knows that.
 

There would be no way the PRC military machine would be reliable enough to compete...in a conventional confrontation. Seriously, they cannot maintain anything...everything looks good on the outside, but its all just a facade...hidden are the defects, the malfunctioning components, the rusty guts...
 
Good points, but not sure about history of Chinese expansionism. Has never a Chinese society had any expansionist ideas? And, not sure about relative forces is 1914. Surely the US is overall more powerful now, but they are spread pretty thin.

I think the article only gives a hint at what is going on around the planet. There are a number of other factors drawing us to conflict that have been discussed elsewhere. I hope that a balance of power is maintained somehow, because I know humans can't deal with otherwise.

Benevolent despotism seems quite fanciful.
 

The Chinese always go home for New Year, so, any wars can only last 11 months.

gg
 
Agree, not right this second, but they are developing at such a rapid pace, aren't they? The number of active ships and aircraft and missiles they are developing is pretty impressive. Yes, can not compete with the US, but which part of the US?
 
kennas said:
Good points, but not sure about history of Chinese expansionism. Has never a Chinese society had any expansionist ideas?
Click to expand...

Not really. It's pretty interesting to have a look at how powerful China was economically and militarily in the 15th/16th century, and did not become like a European power trying to annex other countries, even though they completely dwarfed the rest of SE Asia and could have marched in without too much difficulty. Even the treasure voyages of the 14th century were largely peaceful, even though the Chinese had assembled the largest group of warships the world had ever seen. The Chinese just aren't that interested in projecting themselves around the globe. Why bother with the barbarians etc. I think they're more pragmatic than often given credit for.

Now, all the stuff happening with Japan is kind of understandable. China is an emerging super power and currently all its eastern approaches (ie the way for it to trade with the world) are controlled by the US. The US has air bases in Korea, Japan, The Philippines, and has Taiwan on its side. I think China has a legitimate claim that the US is trying to contain and control them (have a look at map to see what I mean), afterall, America didn't take too kindly to the Soviets putting missiles in Cuba.

kennas said:
And, not sure about relative forces is 1914. Surely the US is overall more powerful now, but they are spread pretty thin.
Click to expand...

The US has 11 aircraft carriers, China has one, and it's an ex-Ukrainian job from the Cold War, and they don't have any planes to land on it. China's ability to project force isn't a shade on the US, for now.


It seems to me that the world is adjusting back to a multipolar power system.
 
Is it really converging, or is disaster just well communicated in this age?

I'm not sure.

Sides are forming around the old Russia and US ideology at this point, which is troubling. Russia are back in the game because of oil and gas. And US weakness. Add China to Russia equals, oh crap.

Some additional disasters waiting to form their own out-of-state momentum:

Ukraine
Thailand
Argentina
Venezuela
North v South Africa (Islam v Christianity - eeek)
South China Sea

The world is on the brink.

Button up people.
 
Eventually, I'll be right, like every economic forecaster...

The Crimea is the latest hot spot, but Russia is smart enough to know they don't have the strategic support to make an impact, yet. But if another significant power backs them, it could be troubling. The only one who people might think about is China, but they are not ready. Not enough strategic lift by sea or air. Maybe.

While the US and NATO have total control of international security, all OK.

When that breaks down, take cover peeps.
 

Crimea is predominantly resided by Russian people so Russia will move in there and take that. Apparently the residents of Crimea want the Russians there, from what I've on the net etc. Here's some helicopters moving in:

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=287_1393605865

They wont be foolish enough to try all of Ukraine. The US will step in well before that even looks like it happens. If a war does erupt, it wont be a long one.

Nothing really to worry about
 
Given the Russian civilian presence in the Crimea and the importance of the Black Sea naval fleet it would be ridiculous to expect Russia not to protect its interest in that area. If the new government won't acknowledge that point than Putin will simply make it clear on the ground.
 
I think that you have got it Bas...Russia has to have its space,as do all big powers, and encroach on that at your own risk.This will all be solved diplomatically.
When the west got too involved in Georgia-on Russia's border-Putin solved the problem.
We are badly served by mainstream media .
 
Yes, Crimea is Russian as is other states on the eastern side on Ukraine. There lies the problem. Russia is now in control of Crimea and will take the other states that are ethnically Russian. This is illegal against international law. Much like us invading Iraq. However, no one can oppose the US, with some other uniforms hanging on. This is Russia, flying solo, with not even China making a statement. This is so outlandish it could be trouble. In a geo strategic sense, the Ukraine is incredibly important, along with Poland. Poland must be on the edge right now. I wouldn't be surprised to see major exercises occurring around there now with NATO. Oh dear.

Put this on top of everything else going on....

Mali
CAR
Egypt
Venezuela
Thailand
Yemen
Iraq
Sudan
Afghan

Essendon v ASADA....
 
kennas said:
Essendon v ASADA....
Click to expand...
Boy oh boy.... woweee.... step up Stephen Dank. I agree, the world must be on the brink if he has anything to do with it.

Good to see you have kept your sense of humour, Kennas!
 
Russia is really pushing the boundaries here. They are making NATO and the US look weak. Which can only go for so long, because they are not. Tread carefully Putin.

I'm concerned that a few countries are starting to have a common enemy: Russia, China, Nth Korea, Syria, Iran.

All giving the bird to the West.
 
I don't think Russia really want to go through the pain and takeover the eastern half of Ukraine, however the majority Russian population want to change because Russia is wealthier.

Russia needed the Crimea so they had access to a winter port.
 
The converging conflicts of ideology, economics and territory are so reminiscent of WWII it's got to be concerning for students of history. For those thinking this is a storm in a tea cup, read up.
 
A reported 1700 massacred in Iraq by ISIS and 49 dead in Ukraine after a military plane shot down.

More media coverage or are things really getting 'worse'?
 
prawn_86 said:
A reported 1700 massacred in Iraq by ISIS and 49 dead in Ukraine after a military plane shot down.

More media coverage or are things really getting 'worse'?
Click to expand...

Compared to over 230,000 Indonesians getting wiped out in the Boxing Day Tsunami this is a paltry amount.

Considering that 35,000 people per annum die in the USA from a motor vehicle accident then once again the amount is minuscule.

In Australia 290 people die from smoking every week.

Things are decidedly getting 'worse' in the war zones (this week)
 
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