The future of energy generation and storage

sptrawler said:

I did say be careful what you sign up for, a while back Noel Whitaker did an article on the issue and he actually has a battery.

From what I've read the rebate is dependent on you signing up for the battery to be VPP compliant, which will mean that the grid decides whether it needs to use your battery or not.

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More on the same issue.

Not sure why but London had some chaos on Monday, not see it posted on asf
Not sure if blackout was contained to the tube only, but in big cities like that, Sydney /Melbourne included, 24/7 power is really needed and any glitch has severe economic and human costs

The reliability of Coal fired power stations.


Coal power broke down 128 times over hottest months, analysis finds

Australia’s ageing coal power stations broke down 128 times during the hotter months of 2024-25, according to a report from Reliability Watch.

On average 5.1 gigawatts of coal fired capacity was offline across New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria between October 2024 and March 2025 – the equivalent of powering 1.2m homes.

Breakdowns were eight times more common than forecast outages, according to the report, which also found a strong correlation between coal being offline and high wholesale prices.

Reliability Watch – a collaboration between the Queensland Conservation Council, Nature Conservation Council of NSW, and Environment Victoria – live-tracks the breakdowns of Australia’s ageing coal units.

Queensland Conservation Council director Dave Copeman said:

Australia’s ageing coal power stations are breaking down nearly every day. Any responsible government can see that we have to urgently build more renewable energy backed by storage to keep the lights on and keep power prices under control.

basilio said:

The reliability of Coal fired power stations.


Coal power broke down 128 times over hottest months, analysis finds

Australia’s ageing coal power stations broke down 128 times during the hotter months of 2024-25, according to a report from Reliability Watch.

On average 5.1 gigawatts of coal fired capacity was offline across New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria between October 2024 and March 2025 – the equivalent of powering 1.2m homes.

Breakdowns were eight times more common than forecast outages, according to the report, which also found a strong correlation between coal being offline and high wholesale prices.

Reliability Watch – a collaboration between the Queensland Conservation Council, Nature Conservation Council of NSW, and Environment Victoria – live-tracks the breakdowns of Australia’s ageing coal units.

Queensland Conservation Council director Dave Copeman said:


Australia’s ageing coal power stations are breaking down nearly every day. Any responsible government can see that we have to urgently build more renewable energy backed by storage to keep the lights on and keep power prices under control.

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Wasn't I called a coal lover, about 8 years ago, when I said the biggest problem will be keeping the coal generators on, not getting them off ? Lol
It isn't as though @Smurf and myself haven't been predicting this for years.
Even knowing the problem, doesn't make it easier to fix it, energy density is a real problem with renewables, you need so much of it, then you need the storage to back it, then you need the firming for when you haven't got it.

More on the same issue, from the renewable gurus.

sptrawler said:

Wasn't I called a coal lover, about 8 years ago, when I said the biggest problem will be keeping the coal generators on, not getting them off ? Lol
It isn't as though @Smurf and myself haven't been predicting this for years.
Even knowing the problem, doesn't make it easier to fix it, energy density is a real problem with renewables, you need so much of it, then you need the storage to back it, then you need the firming for when you haven't got it.

More on the same issue, from the renewable gurus.

“Riddled with breakdowns:” Why intermittent coal power is a major threat to grid reliability

New report says number of coal breakdowns over summer was far worse than expected, underlining case for intermittent coal to be replaced by variable renewables and storage.

reneweconomy.com.au

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Indeed..
Incredible, who would have guessed? Prevent maintenance, send coal power plant to the dump heap, and you see how bad and expensive they become.!!!
Told you renewable were cheaper .
Should we really laugh..or cry at such humanity...

qldfrog said:

Indeed..
Incredible, who would have guessed? Prevent maintenance, send coal power plant to the dump heap, and you see how bad and expensive they become.!!!
Told you renewable were cheaper .
Should we really laugh..or cry at such humanity...

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The real issue is, the coal plant failing is a given, whether renewables can grunt it before the coal can't isn't. Lol

Time will tell.

sptrawler said:

The real issue is, the coal plant failing is a given, whether renewables can grunt it before the coal can't isn't. Lol

Time will tell.

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I think a point missed by the general public is there'd be a need to invest in new generation even if there wasn't a technology change. Even if the intent was to stick with coal, there'd still be a need to replace much of the fleet that is simply worn out.

Same with gas. The existing supply to the south-eastern states is faltering, there's no "do nothing' option to just carry on business as usual.

Smurf1976 said:

I think a point missed by the general public is there'd be a need to invest in new generation even if there wasn't a technology change. Even if the intent was to stick with coal, there'd still be a need to replace much of the fleet that is simply worn out.

Same with gas. The existing supply to the south-eastern states is faltering, there's no "do nothing' option to just carry on business as usual.

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Yes exactly what I was alluding to, as even the most ardent renewable advocate admits, firming is going to be required.

What doesn't seem to be happening, is the understanding, that whatever firming you decide on it takes quite a lot of time to put it in and as I once said.

Tick Tock the clock keeps moving and the coal plant gets more and more cycling, which makes it more and more unreliable and I keep getting told I know SFA.

Jeez this is great fun watching, I'm waiting for the BIG RED button to be pushed, where the Feds just have to sign a blank cheque to get something done.

The enormity of the issue, must be starting to hit home, the battery VPP will be interesting.
The uptake will be worth monitoring, as it will give an indication, as to the publics perception IMO.

sptrawler said:

Yes exactly what I was alluding to, as even the most ardent renewable advocate admits, firming is going to be required.

What doesn't seem to be happening, is the understanding, that whatever firming you decide on it takes quite a lot of time to put it in and as I once said.

Tick Tock the clock keeps moving and the coal plant gets more and more cycling, which makes it more and more unreliable and I keep getting told I know SFA.

Jeez this is great fun watching, I'm waiting for the BIG RED button to be pushed, where the Feds just have to sign a blank cheque to get something done.

The enormity of the issue, must be starting to hit home, the battery VPP will be interesting.
The uptake will be worth monitoring, as it will give an indication, as to the publics perception IMO.

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When is Snowy Mountain 2 going to be finished? That would help. Does not seem close.

Knobby22 said:

When is Snowy Mountain 2 going to be finished? That would help. Does not seem close.

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The big issue is, I think I read five Snowy 2 size hydro storage facilities need to be built by 2050.
So hopefully they learn a lot from this one.

With rood top solar panels being a small part of the electricity generation, I just wonder just how serious the Governments of each State and Territory are.
I received my power bill yesterday.
We exported 1412.50 kWh over the 30 day period for the princely sum of $52.50.
We imported 651kWh over the same period for $187.00
The service fee of $64.92 plus GST is to be added to the import price.

farmerge said:

With rood top solar panels being a small part of the electricity generation

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FWIW as a % of generation by state over the past 12 months:

Rooftop solar:
Qld = 13.1%
NSW = 12.6%
Vic = 11.0%
SA = 23.4%
Tas = 4.4%
WA (SWIS) = 20.1%

Large solar:
Qld = 9.3%
NSW = 10.5%
Vic = 3.7%
SA = 6.4%
Tas = nil
WA (SWIS) = 1.8%

Wind:
Qld = 4.7%
NSW = 9.6%
Vic = 20.9%
SA = 45.4%
Tas = 20.3%
WA (SWIS) 16.8%

Hydro:
Qld = 2.2%
NSW = 3.5%
Vic = 4.9%
SA = Nil
Tas = 70.6%
WA (SWIS) = 0.01%

Gas:
Qld = 6.7%
NSW = 2.2%
Vic = 2.4%
SA = 23.3%
Tas = 4.7%
WA (SWIS) = 31.1%

Diesel:
Qld = 0.05%
NSW = 0.01%
Vic = Nil
SA = 0.07%
Tas = Nil
WA (SWIS) = 0.06%

Biomass:
Qld = 0.3%
NSW = 0.2%
Vic = Nil
SA = Nil
Tas = Nil
WA (SWIS) = 0.3%

Coal:
Qld = 63.4%
NSW = 61.2%
Vic = 56.6%
SA = Nil
Tas = Nil
WA (SWIS) = 28.7%

Notes:

All states except WA the figures are generation which won't equal consumption due to interstate transmission of electricity. Except WA where generation and consumption are the same due to not being connected to anywhere else.

Some "hidden" diesel consumption exists in the form of gas-fired plant burning diesel due to shortfalls of available gas supply. This is recorded as gas despite being diesel in practice.

SA hydro isn't actually zero but it's zero in terms of conventional hydro (dams on rivers) or pumped storage. There is however some energy recovery via hydro generation within the metropolitan Adelaide water supply system so "technically" the state does have some hydro, albeit not in the conventional sense.

Tas coal isn't zero if electricity generated as a by-product of an industrial process is included. That is all self-consumed on site by the industry that produces it, which also draws substantial energy from the grid, but if it were counted then it's about 0.8% of total state generation.

SA coal-fired generation also not zero if electricity generates as a by-product of an industrial process is included.

Minor "hidden" biomass sources also exist in all states in the form of landfill gas and sewer gas etc.

I don't have a precise figure for the NT but for the Darwin-Katherine system, that being the main grid in the NT, in 2021 it was 88% gas, 9% small solar, 3% large solar. Noting there's a minor diesel component in the "gas" figures.

All states note the figures are for electricity generation only, and not for other energy uses. Eg gas used "as gas" by consumers is not counted, nor is coal used in industry or diesel used in transport. It's for electricity generation only.

"The enormity of the issue, must be starting to hit home, the battery VPP will be interesting.
The uptake will be worth monitoring, as it will give an indication, as to the publics perception IMO."
And as well as a measure of economic literacy( hint : i have a pretty good idea of the results)
You will lose money on the battery side if you participate: ROI is negative if you are on the grid .
Either people are off grid, doing it for the blackout protection, technical fun, religious fanaticism (CC cult/ green) or people are just not using their brains.
I suspect the solar panels part, which has a good ROI will be made conditional to battery take up for any gov. help soon.
But i am always keen on personal freedom so if people want to donate money to China, ATO, local businesses and AGL, all the better.
And that will help the grid so we will all benefit.

Further to my previous post, consumption of electricity by state doesn't directly align with population.

Consumption as a % of national total:

Qld = 24.3%
NSW = 28.8%
Vic = 18.2%
SA = 6.2%
Tas = 4.5%
WA = 16.2%
NT = 1.8%

Noting the WA figure here is for the whole state, versus previous data by source that's only for the south-west.

Consumption per capita to highlight the point:

Tas = 21,479 kWh
NT = 19,603 kWh
WA = 14,999 kWh
Qld = 12,929 kWh
NSW / ACT = 9123 kWh
SA = 9052 kWh
Vic = 7118 kWh

Australia = 10,295 kWh

Figures include known private generation (eg rooftop solar, mining, industry) as well as public supply.

Share of agriculture, mining and manufacturing as a % of total state consumption:

WA = 59%
Tas = 57%
NT = 57%
Qld = 42%
NSW = 28%
SA = 27%
Victoria = 23%

So the bottom line is rather a lot of it's going into things that either export or which are a direct alternative to imports. If supply falls short, households having the lights go out is actually quite some way down the list of problems. Having the wheels fall off the economy is a more serious one.

I'm not sure exactly what uses it in the NT but in Tas the "big 4" factories between them use just on half of all electricity in the state. Between them producing aluminium, silicomanganese, ferromanganese, sinter, zinc, sulphuric acid and publication paper. Every bit of that being either for export or as an alternative to imports - and that's what all this really comes down to. In SA the well known steel industry doesn't actually use all that much electricity, it's some but it's not massive, but copper mining and refining is the single largest user.

Other states it's more diverse, there's a greater number of industrial users in WA for example, but ultimately the same applies. Whatever's being grown, mined or manufactured is a product for export or to replace imports, it's benefiting the nation's economic wealth.

Belgium backpedaling and cancelling its end of nuclear laws
In french

More on what could become a huge issue for Australia.
It isn't as though this problem wasn't an obvious weakness, in not having a battery production facility here, where we could monitor manufacturing and replace our own grid batteries if supply is disrupted.


LONDON, May 14 (Reuters) - U.S. energy officials are reassessing the risk posed by Chinese-made devices that play a critical role in renewable energy infrastructure after unexplained communication equipment was found inside some of them, two people familiar with the matter said.
Power inverters, which are predominantly produced in China, are used throughout the world to connect solar panels and wind turbines to electricity grids. They are also found in batteries, heat pumps and electric vehicle chargers.

While inverters are built to allow remote access for updates and maintenance, the utility companies that use them typically install firewalls to prevent direct communication back to China.
However, rogue communication devices not listed in product documents have been found in some Chinese solar power inverters by U.S experts who strip down equipment hooked up to grids to check for security issues, the two people said.
Over the past nine months, undocumented communication devices, including cellular radios, have also been found in some batteries from multiple Chinese suppliers, one of them said.
Reuters was unable to determine how many solar power inverters and batteries they have looked at.

While inverters are built to allow remote access for updates and maintenance, the utility companies that use them typically install firewalls to prevent direct communication back to China.
However, rogue communication devices not listed in product documents have been found in some Chinese solar power inverters by U.S experts who strip down equipment hooked up to grids to check for security issues, the two people said.
Over the past nine months, undocumented communication devices, including cellular radios, have also been found in some batteries from multiple Chinese suppliers, one of them said.
Reuters was unable to determine how many solar power inverters and batteries they have looked at.

Some blue sky, underground and under water solutions to energy abundance. Maybe..

basilio said:

Some blue sky, underground and under water solutions to energy abundance. Maybe..

UK firm beams space solar breakthrough: 13x more power sent to Earth

Space Solar's successful "Cassidi" project marks a significant step towards delivering continuous, clean energy from space.

interestingengineering.com

Recipe to harness Earth’s hydrogen power for 170,000 years found

For a world striving for a low-carbon future, this discovery, detailed by researchers at the University of Oxford, Durham University, and the University of Toronto, could be a game-changer.

interestingengineering.com

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Funny that, both of the breakthroughs, aren't from the U.S or China.

Duh, now everyone is questioning it, yet on this thread we have been talking about the national security risk for ages, it just highlights how poor our media is IMO.