Normal
Re: Technical Trading Exercise---Discretionary, (Pavilion103 & tech/a)Some great musings here Mistagear----I think so and below is whyBut you cannot deny that the trade was taken. Analysis anticipated a profitable trade and as you will see shortly the anticipation that momentum would continue allowed me or indicated to me that it was sfe to reduce my initial risk by moving the trade to a position of break even.I would suggest that THIS OBSERVATION is widely accepted by most here.Again you will see that the setup I'm looking for are at best continuation micro patterns and at worst continuation patterns. So there is a group of bars often coupled with other analysis which indicates a continuation of the current move in my direction.This pattern has a set boundary which we can determine indication of success or failure. It is this boundary which we set our initial stop/initial trigger/and importantly our position sizing (Not with standing your comments below--will get to them).Because we are letting each individual trade determine its own out come. We are not limiting the profit potential of the next trade due to the outcome of the last.Why cannot it be exactly as you describe?So lets have a look at some examples we have traded.But before I doCurrently Pav and I are not finding the continuation patterns that were prevalent earlier in the year. In fact where a market in general turns you will find many exhaustion and ending patterns. I can and do find that some of the patterns traded at this time as continuation patterns turn out to be ending patterns. In these situations OFTEN our pattern will trigger only to quickly reverse and fail.Here 1R losses increase (At the end of longer term moves).This is why there are no NEW setups offered up ---as they appear I will post them.I will also post Current longer term general market analysis. this I posted this week in the XAO thread (it is actually a chart of the XJO)Some great musings here Mistagear----I think so and below is whyBut you cannot deny that the trade was taken. Analysis anticipated a profitable trade and as you will see shortly the anticipation that momentum would continue allowed me or indicated to me that it was sfe to reduce my initial risk by moving the trade to a position of break even.I would suggest that THIS OBSERVATION is widely accepted by most here.Again you will see that the setup I'm looking for are at best continuation micro patterns and at worst continuation patterns. So there is a group of bars often coupled with other analysis which indicates a continuation of the current move in my direction.This pattern has a set boundary which we can determine indication of success or failure. It is this boundary which we set our initial stop/initial trigger/and importantly our position sizing (Not with standing your comments below--will get to them).Because we are letting each individual trade determine its own out come. We are not limiting the profit potential of the next trade due to the outcome of the last.Why cannot it be exactly as you describe?So lets have a look at some examples we have traded.But before I doCurrently Pav and I are not finding the continuation patterns that were prevalent earlier in the year. In fact where a market in general turns you will find many exhaustion and ending patterns. I can and do find that some of the patterns traded at this time as continuation patterns turn out to be ending patterns. In these situations OFTEN our pattern will trigger only to quickly reverse and fail.Here 1R losses increase (At the end of longer term moves).This is why there are no NEW setups offered up ---as they appear I will post them.I will also post Current longer term general market analysis. this I posted this week in the XAO thread (it is actually a chart of the XJO)Click on all charts to enlarge[ATTACH]52542[/ATTACH]This is why we are seeing zero continuation trades and got hit recently with a number of completion patterns.like this one with TLSYou can see the initial setup and as momentum had already triggered the trade I placed the initial stop in the body of the pattern. I would had we taken the trade at the point of breakout moved the stop up in line with momentum going our way,as it was I found it the day of breakout.Filled the next day you can then see how quickly and aggressively the trade collapsed.Note how the patterns has been tested and has acted as resistance!!1R loss.[ATTACH]52543[/ATTACH]The other chart in the Shot is TPM I miss labelled it.This pattern failed to trigger.Here are today's shots of both charts.[ATTACH]52544[/ATTACH]Here is one of our FIRST completed successful trades.This chart was labelled as the chart unfolded and sent as an educational exercise to Pav each time a management of the trade took place. [ATTACH]52545[/ATTACH]This is how Ill label all charts as they are traded in future.
Re: Technical Trading Exercise---Discretionary, (Pavilion103 & tech/a)
Some great musings here Mistagear----
I think so and below is why
But you cannot deny that the trade was taken. Analysis anticipated a profitable trade and as you will see shortly the anticipation that momentum would continue allowed me or indicated to me that it was sfe to reduce my initial risk by moving the trade to a position of break even.
I would suggest that THIS OBSERVATION is widely accepted by most here.
Again you will see that the setup I'm looking for are at best continuation micro patterns and at worst continuation patterns. So there is a group of bars often coupled with other analysis which indicates a continuation of the current move in my direction.
This pattern has a set boundary which we can determine indication of success or failure. It is this boundary which we set our initial stop/initial trigger/and importantly our position sizing (Not with standing your comments below--will get to them).
Because we are letting each individual trade determine its own out come. We are not limiting the profit potential of the next trade due to the outcome of the last.
Why cannot it be exactly as you describe?
So lets have a look at some examples we have traded.
But before I do
Currently Pav and I are not finding the continuation patterns that were prevalent earlier in the year. In fact where a market in general turns you will find many exhaustion and ending patterns. I can and do find that some of the patterns traded at this time as continuation patterns turn out to be ending patterns. In these situations OFTEN our pattern will trigger only to quickly reverse and fail.
Here 1R losses increase (At the end of longer term moves).
This is why there are no NEW setups offered up ---as they appear I will post them.
I will also post Current longer term general market analysis. this I posted this week in the XAO thread (it is actually a chart of the XJO)
Click on all charts to enlarge
[ATTACH]52542[/ATTACH]
This is why we are seeing zero continuation trades and got hit recently with a number of completion patterns.
like this one with TLS
You can see the initial setup and as momentum had already triggered the trade I placed the initial stop in the body of the pattern. I would had we taken the trade at the point of breakout moved the stop up in line with momentum going our way,as it was I found it the day of breakout.
Filled the next day you can then see how quickly and aggressively the trade collapsed.
Note how the patterns has been tested and has acted as resistance!!
1R loss.
[ATTACH]52543[/ATTACH]
The other chart in the Shot is TPM I miss labelled it.
This pattern failed to trigger.
Here are today's shots of both charts.
[ATTACH]52544[/ATTACH]
Here is one of our FIRST completed successful trades.
This chart was labelled as the chart unfolded and sent as an educational exercise to Pav each time a management of the trade took place.
[ATTACH]52545[/ATTACH]
This is how Ill label all charts as they are traded in future.
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