Normal
I have the benifit of MonteCarlo analysis.Hence the method has been tested over 20000 portfolio's.There is a 100% success rate---IE not one of the 20000 returned a loss.I will also run the Monte Carlo analysis and post the results.--Chart form seems to be the best way for people to understand or at least visualise.For those who dont understand Monte Carlo analysis its simplest explaination is --Give 20000 traders each $100,000 and your method and tell them at different intervals to go trade your method and bring back the detailed results in 8 yrs.Fortunately I can run the test in a few minutes.Much was gleened by this analysis.Standard deviation of wins and losses and return was small under 10% if I recall.Not EVERY trade needs to be taken to be profitable infact there are more buy signals than capital could possibly take.TJOn an average day I'd just check price which is on my desk in the form of live data everyday. Unless Im closing something or buying something my time is negligable.When starting up it could take 30 mins a day for a month or so until all is up and going.Just out of curiosity I run a search most days just to see whats flagged.My veiw is I should be running more than 1 portfolio using this method but I'm not going to until Ive finished testing ideas with the Amibroker people.I want fixed rules not wishy washy ones. I use a full srvice broker.Only because of the ease and the low number of trades I do. Total around 40 a year over 3 methods.Position size is a flat 10% of capital as it increase so does the parcel size.This is a little different to testing which is $10000 a trade.I only buy some and I do eyeball the charts picked and UNLIKE the systems test I wont trade some charts.I have 2 eyeball criteria which I have made known from implementation----this could be one reason why the realtime results outstripped the test results---but I cant test it so cant be sure.(1) The chart must be in an OBVIOUS uptrend or in an OBVIOUS break of a downtrend.(2) The chart cannot have been ranging like between $1 and 1.60 over 5 yrs it must have upside potential.So as Excal said there is a very small element of discretion in my trading.As for Questions.I welcome them. This gives peoplereading a chance to follow how a method was developed and the questions are often those that people either would love to know and werent confident to ask or they dont know what to ask.Every now and then i get a question that stumps me or I didnt consider---these questions are the ones that help me learn more and I want to learn all I can as I'm putting my hard earned on the line---so it better be right!!
I have the benifit of MonteCarlo analysis.
Hence the method has been tested over 20000 portfolio's.There is a 100% success rate---IE not one of the 20000 returned a loss.I will also run the Monte Carlo analysis and post the results.--Chart form seems to be the best way for people to understand or at least visualise.
For those who dont understand Monte Carlo analysis its simplest explaination is --
Give 20000 traders each $100,000 and your method and tell them at different intervals to go trade your method and bring back the detailed results in 8 yrs.
Fortunately I can run the test in a few minutes.
Much was gleened by this analysis.
Standard deviation of wins and losses and return was small under 10% if I recall.Not EVERY trade needs to be taken to be profitable infact there are more buy signals than capital could possibly take.
TJ
On an average day I'd just check price which is on my desk in the form of live data everyday. Unless Im closing something or buying something my time is negligable.When starting up it could take 30 mins a day for a month or so until all is up and going.
Just out of curiosity I run a search most days just to see whats flagged.
My veiw is I should be running more than 1 portfolio using this method but I'm not going to until Ive finished testing ideas with the Amibroker people.I want fixed rules not wishy washy ones. I use a full srvice broker.Only because of the ease and the low number of trades I do. Total around 40 a year over 3 methods.
Position size is a flat 10% of capital as it increase so does the parcel size.
This is a little different to testing which is $10000 a trade.
I only buy some and I do eyeball the charts picked and UNLIKE the systems test I wont trade some charts.I have 2 eyeball criteria which I have made known from implementation----this could be one reason why the realtime results outstripped the test results---but I cant test it so cant be sure.
(1) The chart must be in an OBVIOUS uptrend or in an OBVIOUS break of a downtrend.
(2) The chart cannot have been ranging like between $1 and 1.60 over 5 yrs it must have upside potential.
So as Excal said there is a very small element of discretion in my trading.
As for Questions.
I welcome them. This gives peoplereading a chance to follow how a method was developed and the questions are often those that people either would love to know and werent confident to ask or they dont know what to ask.
Every now and then i get a question that stumps me or I didnt consider---these questions are the ones that help me learn more and I want to learn all I can as I'm putting my hard earned on the line---so it better be right!!
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