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Tjames.


Thanks for the questions.


(1) I have data back 8 yrs and yes this is a problem for those testing methods.

Infact I never clean my data---havent done so for 3 yrs and as a result have stocks that are no longer in the data downloads as they are delisted.This gives some more accuracy to testing.But clean accurate data is a huge issue.Not so much for portfolio traders but definately for Futures or Forex traders using tick data format.

So 8 yrs.


(2) Its not just a matter of comparing equity graph's v the All Ords.

For there are 2

1------closed trade equity this graph is less than impressive as it only records CLOSED trades.---When trading very longterm---years in T/T's case in some trades we can have a great deal of consecutive losses while a full 10 share portfolio is being purchased.So this graph looks terrible.---MEANWHILE


2------Whats not being recorded on the graph is OPEN Equity---the on going unslod profit that remains in the method until its sold out or a trade triggers an exit.This graph is MUCH smoother.I havent run these over the last 8 yrs for ages but off the top of my head I think the biggest DRAWDOWN on CLOSED TRADES was around 20%---however open trades had the method in profit continually.---The initial Drawdown was around 12%---thats the figure needed according to testing to get the method up and running.

Ill run it again and post both graphs--both closed and open equity,at latest Saturday.


3----This is a common question asked---How does the method perform in less than ideal conditions.

Firstly testing over short timeframes is pretty impossible as the AVERAGE trade time length for winning trades is just under a year (330 days) and losers is average around 40 days.---However we can test open equity as against closed trades so while no conclusive can give an idea.


Secondly the method is a LONG---UPTRENDING trading method designed to catch and ride trends---its not designed to out perform markets in downturns.

In downturns we do get drawdowns.However I have been working on reducing even these times of drawdown---more to the point reducing the drawdown.This can be done buy trading the equity curve or the index curve as a 'Portfolio" exit methodology.The Amibroker experts have been kind enough to lend a hand testing this idea (As Metastock/Tradesim combo cant do this). Their results so far in early days are that impressive I sold the total of my portfolio about 6 weeks ago when the index fell below the 180 day EMA.As doing this increased profit 3 fold---in tests.


Ive just returned to the market with my long term portfolio---Time will tell if my personal result is as good as testing---I left my re entry later than the testing model---but Im up on holding the portfolio---except for bloody tax.!


I can and will also run these periods in answer to your question for you,but place all results in context of the methods character.


tech


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