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Taking my bat and ball and going home

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Sunder

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4 August 2008
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Well guys,

It's been fun, but over the last 12 months, I've lost about $7k, which is about 1/4 of my investment fund and I think I'll call it quits there.

I'm out of a job, and can't afford the gambling while I don't have a steady source of income. If it takes me longer than expected to find a job, I may be eating my investment money. nom nom nom nom nom :bite:

I'm not out forever. If it wasn't for the market volatility, I'd still be in. If it wasn't for the lack of a job, I'd still be in. But with both, I need to play conservative and I think this is the way to do it. I'm pretty sure from here, we're going to skitter along the bottom for a while anyway, so I don't think I'll be missing the mother of all rebounds.

I think I'll come back into the game either when I get a new job and pass probation, or else I think we're actually out of the bear market, and into a new steady growth.
 
sunder,.. good luck buddy...

bear markets are very difficult at the best of times. just think of that money you lost as an education fee. I'm sure you learnt a lot - so it's not a total loss...
 
Sunder... SUNDER... don't turn yer back now!!

There's a trifecta of morning stars man... yeah a trifecta of them. What an omen eh!
 
Sunder.

Your not alone I'm sure.
Just one of the few who admit to their situation.
When I started 14 yrs ago I lost $20K in the first 6 mths.
Took quite sometime to get that back.
Just reciently was sitting on 22% drawdown not dissimilar to your D/D but got most back in two short trades before they were banned.
Then got caught again on 10/10 to get it all back in the next 2 days.

Currently no open positions.

BUT
You must go through the hard times to LEARN.
These are tremendous opportunities to UNDERSTAND why you failed.
I have come close to bankruptcy twice in business and looking back have no regrets whatso ever.Those times taught me far far more than any of the heady boom times. Infact it was those periods of great hardship that gave me the experience to take advantage of those opportunities that did and do follow.

Sure take the time to reflect.
Take the time to plan.
Take the time to re invent the way you do things.
Infact take the time to re look at how you see things.

But DONT GIVE UP.
To give up is to admit defeat and stop personal growth.
You have one shot at life---most fail!---most give up.
 
I agree with Tech/a to some degree, although I would go one step further and suggest that one should never get themselves in a position that they have to give up. Learning about positive expectancy and probability theory sounds boring but at the end of the day all trading/investment is based on these two principles. I may not be as profitable as TH or many others, but buggered if I will ever go out backward (and I'm not saying TH will!).

I started trading at a ripe age of 18 and lost 2x my annual salary in 1987. I stuck with it and learnt from my mistakes. In times like this, especially in Australia where short selling is banned, its a great time to really learn. Not just ponder - but really learn. Learn about probability theory. Learn about expectancy. Learn how and why profits are made. The day will come (eventually) that opportunities will arise. The difference between a good trader and a bad is knowing how to survive for the good times. That's what I learnt back in 1987.

Good luck to you.
 

Take your bat & ball & go to India, hurry we are in trouble. Seriously, believe you are doing the right thing. Markets should be avoided if you don't have a job, spare cash, stress etc. Could affect you decision making. You would be
gambling . Don't give away learning, come back in 2010, there will be plenty of meat on the table for you. All the best.
 
You learn far more from the losing trades than your winning ones IMO.

Apply that on a broader scale and you may be able to use it to become a much better trader in general.
 

Hi Sunder,

dont know how long you have been trading.

I think nearly all investors would be down 25% over the last 12 months.

Obviously the more experienced, sophisticated traders may have lost less...or even be ahead if they are experienced short traders...the legendary 3%.

If you are not working, and have time on your hands, maybe you could direct your learning activities, toward "paper trading" and learning about other systems, such as SPI, and Forex, which offer opportunities to profit from downside markets, without risking your real dough.

like I said, I dont know how long you have been learning/doing, I personally am only just learning that there is so much i dont know.

You could have a look at "Masters of the Markets" series of books, very interesting that:

a) nearly all of them lost big time at first
b) they succeeded with utterly different methodologies

On the other hand, maybe you are better off doing something more enjoyable than hunching in front of a computer, reading depressing info!!
 
Sorry to hear about your situation Sunder. Best with the job hunting and hope you get back into the market again.

gg
 
If Sunder loves it enough, he will be back. It's like a drug!

Good luck with the job hunt! See you back here soon.

Radge, surely some of those Fusion guys would be DESTROYING the markets at the moment, the intraday traders that is. Really a market for scalpers at the moment, tough work for other methods, but as always, things will swing around.

Congrats Tech on getting back your drawdown, awesome work in this environment!
 
Hi Sunder,
Sorry to hear of your situation, however, your position may be a blessing in disguise. I believe that you also did the correct thing in taking a break from the market, before you do more damage to your account.

Unless you are dependent on the market for a living (the real professionals), or trade short term (intraday) - then the old saying "always trade in your own best interest" would infer that you should stand aside.

When trading, our high probability trades are those where we stack the odds in our favour, its my opinion that this market does not offer good trading conditions for EOD trading.

I've decided to stand aside for the present, but if I was trading then as soon as I entered a position, I'd be looking for an exit AND TAKING IT.

Good luck with your job hunting - the market will still be there when your ready to give it another go.

Peter
 
Hi Sunder,

You will be amongst many who have lost money at present. Most just won't be upfront about it.

Withdrawal seems sensible at this stage. (I've been out since January because I recognise my limitations.)

Hope you'll stick around the forum. We'd miss your contributions.

All the best
Julia
 
I'll be upfront about it I'm down more than 40% so around 20k
Just wish I had more capital as it's bargain hunting time as there is now light at the end of the tunnel imo.
 
I dont want to be a sob story but I'm in a similar position. I freed up 50K of capital from my house (about 6 months ago) for me to take a year off and study postgraduate finance full time next year (which im currently studying part time). Instead of letting it sit in the bank I thought I may as well invest it in the stock market. Without going into detail I did ALL the wrong things at the very worst time. The end point being last friday when I had to sell what was left of my entire portfolio and leave 7K in there. I put 40K in of my own money and 30K in from credit cards (dont ask - it was only going to be a 2 week trade before the crash) and am left with less than 10K in the acc (plus loans on card and from family).

Because I didnt know how this stupid f%^&g margin loan settling worked I had to sell everything last friday before 2 days of 7%+ growth (mon 20/tue 21 Oct) which would have at least increased my 10K to about 15K. I even put in a 'buy on Fri, sell on Mon/Tue' 20K on SUN at 8.18 (well over $9 by now Im guessing) which I sold out on the day also.

So yeh all the wrong things at a very wrong time and a very expensive lesson. I _actually_ have been studying the cyrox forex scalping method and wanted to put some capital there for something to do during my study year off. I just had it parked in the market till I was confident. That fact i am not completely shattered and running around town like a lunatic probably shows I am a fairly confident person by nature, but this will take a while to bounce back from and I hope i am not too permanently scarred by the experience.

So, house is on the market, no year off to study, what was left of my portfolio is not even on the market during this upswing. So much for not a sob story, huh...

At least it happened at the begining (33) of my investment plans... I still got health and youth eh...
 
Rastan, Well an expensive lesson indeed. Hope things workout for you.
 
Oh guys, that is just such rotten timing. Best of luck to you both. Actually, best of luck to all of us because everyone has lost money in this terrible environment. I know I have!
 

that sounds very painful Rastan,

crikey! the market is a harsh task master. so very difficult to get a grip on it -- its fine when its being friendly, you think you can never fail -- but when it gets cranky, few survive.

me, i took a year off work and started intraday trading indices late last year. the hill i am climbing is almost vertical it seems, even with assistance from a pro; i'm surprised i havent slit my wrists; its been an emotional roller-coaster, let alone the financial costs. I have had days making 70 or 80 points, the next day I lose the same; very confusing and difficult to unpack it all. But that’s index trading, I find it much more difficult than share trading.

i was hoping to have completed my basic index trading education by the end of this year, and then take just a little from the market each week as income to sustain my further education 2009 on. Its not looking promising as I write, I think I’ll be a job hunter as of Jan (maybe sooner) and index trading at night – well trying !!

Very disappointing for me, I’ve given my heart and soul to the endeavour, now even a frugal weekly income from index trading seems years away.

James
 
James,

I hear you mate, my idea was to hopefuly scalp anywhere over $200 a week on the forex market always knowing I had my butt covered by the 40K i had esp for the purpose of taking an entire year off and only having to study. I dont know what hurts more, seeing 70K dissapear in 3 weeks or knowing i could have had an entire year off with a couple of OS surfing/hang gliding trips to boot. It has been the 2nd largest thing to happen to me in my 33 years (next to my sister and only sibling passing away when I was in high school). I tell you it has left me in some similar stakes of shock and numbness, but of course they wont last anywhere near as long.

It was a mixture of things for me, a couple of obvious ones like using margin and yes i know, know my credit card (so much for a fast buck). Some not so obivous like really understanding how the settlement/LVR works on a margin loan. These things can bite you and even though I am on the net and knew about the US economy and credit default swaps and the possibility of it hitting hard, like many others I wasnt expecting it 'tomorrow'. Also since I hadn't been following the markets long I didnt realise just how blindly we follow the US (well in times of uber shock anyways) so I thought yeh the US might be in trouble, but we dont hand out ninja loans. So a biiiig lesson on the 'global' economy for me.

I suppose I was willing to take some risk and risk some lessons, not realising that the lesson to be handed out was a large one indeed. But those are the ones that you remember I suppose.

It would have been a gun time for me to have my forex account live too at themoment as these volatile times have made some massive swings that would have been lovely to surf... best of luck with the index trading.

Rob
 
That is terrible Rastan! Well you know for next time, as you say, you are still healthy and young! If your healthy, you can always earn more, by far the most important thing in this world.

James, what index are you trading and what style are you using? Position trading intraday or scalping (how many round trips are you doing a day?).
 
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